Daily Pitcher Breakdown: April 11th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McGowan | TOR | BAL | 25.2 | 2.45 | 3.65 | 1.23 | 22.8% | 10.5% | 0.70 | 1.17 | |
| Norris | BAL | TOR | 176.2 | 4.18 | 4.26 | 1.49 | 40.0% | 19.0% | 8.7% | 0.87 | 1.05 |
| Fernandez | MIA | PHI | 172.2 | 2.19 | 3.22 | 0.98 | 64.3% | 27.5% | 8.5% | 0.52 | 1.36 |
| Burnett | PHI | MIA | 191 | 3.30 | 3.10 | 1.21 | 50.0% | 26.1% | 8.4% | 0.52 | 2.33 |
| Lester | BOS | NYY | 213.1 | 3.75 | 3.97 | 1.30 | 19.6% | 7.4% | 0.80 | 1.27 | |
| Sabathia | NYY | BOS | 211 | 4.78 | 3.95 | 1.37 | 19.3% | 7.2% | 1.19 | 1.35 | |
| Price | TBR | CIN | 186.2 | 3.33 | 3.43 | 1.10 | 55.6% | 20.4% | 3.7% | 0.77 | 1.35 |
| Cueto | CIN | TBR | 60.2 | 2.82 | 3.55 | 1.06 | 45.5% | 21.1% | 7.4% | 1.04 | 2.10 |
| Roark | WAS | ATL | 53.2 | 1.51 | 3.34 | 0.92 | 80.0% | 19.6% | 5.4% | 0.17 | 1.95 |
| Teheran | ATL | WAS | 185.2 | 3.20 | 3.62 | 1.18 | 50.0% | 22.0% | 5.8% | 1.07 | 0.92 |
| Feldman | HOU | TEX | 181.2 | 3.86 | 4.10 | 1.19 | 43.3% | 17.4% | 7.4% | 0.94 | 1.58 |
| Darvish | TEX | HOU | 209.2 | 2.83 | 2.83 | 1.08 | 46.9% | 32.9% | 9.5% | 1.12 | 1.08 |
| Chen | KCR | MIN | 121 | 3.27 | 4.81 | 1.18 | 65.4% | 15.7% | 7.2% | 0.97 | 0.53 |
| Gibson | MIN | KCR | 51 | 6.53 | 4.78 | 1.75 | 34.4% | 12.2% | 8.4% | 1.24 | 1.77 |
| Liriano | PIT | MIL | 161 | 3.02 | 3.50 | 1.22 | 62.1% | 24.5% | 9.5% | 0.50 | 1.99 |
| Peralta | MIL | PIT | 183.1 | 4.37 | 4.39 | 1.42 | 12.5% | 16.1% | 9.1% | 0.93 | 1.84 |
| Carrasco | CLE | CWS | 46.2 | 6.75 | 4.44 | 1.77 | 53.1% | 13.8% | 8.3% | 0.77 | 1.83 |
| Sale | CWS | CLE | 214.1 | 3.07 | 2.96 | 1.07 | 37.5% | 26.1% | 5.3% | 0.97 | 1.46 |
| Samardzija | CHC | STL | 213.2 | 4.34 | 3.60 | 1.35 | 37.5% | 23.4% | 8.5% | 1.05 | 1.53 |
| Kelly | STL | CHC | 124 | 2.69 | 4.31 | 1.35 | 37.5% | 14.9% | 8.3% | 0.73 | 1.81 |
| Ryu | LAD | ARI | 192 | 3.00 | 3.67 | 1.20 | 37.5% | 19.7% | 6.3% | 0.70 | 1.66 |
| McCarthy | ARI | LAD | 135 | 4.53 | 4.08 | 1.35 | 37.5% | 13.2% | 3.6% | 0.87 | 1.78 |
| Gee | NYM | LAA | 199 | 3.62 | 4.14 | 1.28 | 37.5% | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.09 | 1.13 |
| Skaggs | LAA | NYM | 38.2 | 5.12 | 3.96 | 1.39 | 37.5% | 21.2% | 8.8% | 1.63 | 1.27 |
| Milone | OAK | SEA | 156.1 | 4.14 | 4.06 | 1.27 | 37.5% | 18.9% | 5.9% | 1.44 | 0.79 |
| Hernandez | SEA | OAK | 204.1 | 3.04 | 2.84 | 1.13 | 37.5% | 26.3% | 5.6% | 0.66 | 1.89 |
| Porcello | DET | SDP | 177 | 4.32 | 3.39 | 1.28 | 37.5% | 19.3% | 5.7% | 0.92 | 2.34 |
| Cashner | SDP | DET | 175 | 3.09 | 3.80 | 1.13 | 37.5% | 18.1% | 6.7% | 0.62 | 1.83 |
| De La Rosa | COL | SFG | 167.2 | 3.49 | 4.45 | 1.39 | 37.5% | 15.7% | 8.7% | 0.59 | 1.71 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | COL | 201.1 | 2.77 | 3.41 | 1.03 | 64.5% | 24.8% | 7.7% | 0.67 | 1.33 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Yu Darvish, TEX (v. HOU) – Duh.
Madison Bumgarner, SF (v. COL) – The Rockies have already started their large home/away splits offensively, meanwhile they run into Bumgarner at home where he has a career ERA of 2.89 in 349.3 IP.
Felix Hernandez, SEA (v. OAK) – Hernandez has owned Oakland throughout his career and has already continued the trend this season with an 8.3 IP/1 ER gem on the 5th. He won’t be cheap, but he’ll almost certainly be worth it!
Jose Fernandez, MIA (at PHI) – He’s arguably the best pitcher going right now and the Phillies aren’t striking fear into anyone, so why is he just fourth? Well, there is a severe threat of rain so I’d be leery of investing tonight.
David Price, TB (at CIN) – The Reds offense isn’t special and their best batters are lefties, who’ve never really had any lucky figuring Price out.
Chris Sale, CWS (v. CLE) – Cleveland crushed lefties last year and Sale was among them (outings of 8, 6, and 5 ER), but they are flailing against southpaws early on this year with a .238 wOBA. They’ve been handled by three lefties in a row with the Padres doubleheader and John Danks on Thursday.
Julio Teheran, ATL (v. WAS) – This is a tough lineup, but Teheran is a stud and he already stood tall against the Nats in his last time out with a 7 IP/ 2 ER effort. He was a little wild with four walks, but the six strikeouts and the win helped negate that issue.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Andrew Cashner, SD (v. DET) – It’s only the matchup holding Cashner back here and even against a strong Tigers lineup, I’d still have no problem considering Cashner. He has ace-worthy stuff and huge strikeout upside. Of course the poor offense of the Padres explains why he’s 0-1 with a 2.25 ERA through his first two starts.
Johnny Cueto, CIN (v. TB) – A win won’t be easy to come by for Cueto today even if he does manage to shut down the Rays. He’s squaring off against David Price and has the backing of a very weak offense. At outlets where wins aren’t game-changers in the scoring, I’d still consider Cueto as his strikeouts have been up early on with 17 in 14 IP.
Rick Porcello, DET (at SD) – Few offenses have looked more inept than San Diego’s to start the season. Porcello’s groundball tendencies won’t take full advantage of Petco Park, but he shouldn’t be afraid to challenge them in the zone given the spacious ballpark.
Jeff Samardzija, CHC (at STL) – The Cards offense is off to a sluggish start, particularly against righties with a .226 AVG and .290 wOBA. Samardzija has a 3.38 ERA against them the last two years. The Cards have a 28.6 percent strikeout rate against righty splitters, Samardzija’s best pitch.
Joe Kelly, STL (v. CHC) – Kelly has rolled the Cubs in his career with a 2.61 ERA in 31 IP. They have a paltry .236 wOBA against curves and sliders from righties – Kelly’s best secondary offerings – along with a 30 percent strikeout rate.
Tyler Skaggs, LAA (v. NYM) – I think some outlets are a little overzealous on Skaggs after his season debut, especially since it was against Houston, but I really like him against a stagnant Mets lineup. He’s still quite cheap at several outlets, so be ready to pounce if he is at the one you play!
A.J. Burnett, PHI (v. MIA) – Remember Miami’s hot start last week? Yeah, I think we all knew it wouldn’t last. They are 23rd in wOBA this week and back to being the inept unit we expected coming into the season. We haven’t seen Burnett’s strikeout prowess yet, but facing a 27.7 percent strikeout rate like the Marlins is sure to amp up his rate.
Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD (at ARI) – He burned us – well, definitely me – last time out when the Giants smashed him, but I’m not running away from him. It was a rough start, plain and simple. He’s already rolled the D’Backs once this year and they have an anemic .203 wOBA against lefty sliders since the start of 2013.
Tanner Roark, WAS (at ATL) – Roark was a surprise standout last year and then secured a job after “Doug Fister(player-profile)”:/players/Doug_Fister-10936’s injury rendered the fifth starter’s battle moot. The Braves have been awful at the dish to start the season with a league-worst .256 wOBA (tied with San Diego) and a 25 percent strikeout rate. This could be a nice battle between Roark and Teheran.
Wily Peralta, MIL (v. PIT) – Peralta held up pretty well in Fenway and now returns home to face a modest Pittsburgh lineup. There is pop in that Pirates lineup, but Peralta’s heavy groundball ways can mitigate that power, especially if his command is sharp. The Pirates put up an ugly .242 wOBA against righty sliders last year, which emerged as a true plus pitch for Peralta in the second half of the season.
USE CAUTION:
Francisco Liriano, PIT (at MIL) – Liriano did his best work against lefties last year with a historical 321 OPS. He wasn’t exactly poor against righties, but the Brewers can and often do run eight righties out there in their lineup. Be careful here.
Kyle Gibson, MIN (v. KC) – The caution is mostly due to a lack of track record as he has just 11 MLB starts under his belt and not too many good ones. He was solid in his 2014 debut and he gets a punchless Royals lineup. They’ve hit .283 against righties so far this year, but just a .081 ISO thanks in large part to them hitting just one homer… yes, one. I like Gibson has a cheap secondary or tertiary option, but don’t bet on a ton of strikeouts as the Royals just don’t swing-and-miss.
Tommy Milone, OAK (at SEA) – Hey, at least it’s a pitcher’s park. He can only be trusted in spacious ballparks because of his home run troubles, but I don’t love him here as much more than a secondary option because he’s still dueling against Hernandez so grabbing a W will be tough. I could see a solid 5-6 inning effort, though.
Dillon Gee, NYM (at LAA) – Over at my site Paint The Black, I recently profiled Gee’s problem going deep into games as his effectiveness just craters after 75 pitches. Additionally, the Angels are no cakewalk so he could be at 75 pitches by the fifth inning.
Bruce Chen, KC (at MIN) – I don’t trust Chen, even against a modest Twins offense. His implosion potential is too high and the full slate offers enough options – even low dollar ones – to really shy away from Chen.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
Scott Feldman, HOU (at TEX) – What is your upside here? He’s had two nice outings, but just four strikeouts and four walks in 13.7 IP.
Jorge de la Rosa, COL (at SF) – He’s actually worse outside of Coors in a strange twist and he’s off to a brutal start whereas the Giants are hitting quite well to start the season, particularly off of lefties with a .369 wOBA that sits second in the league.
Brandon McCarthy, ARI (v. LAD) – I’m a long way from trusting him against anyone, let alone a strong Dodgers lineup.
YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:
Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.
Bud Norris, BAL (v. TOR)
Carlos Carrasco, CLE (at CWS)
Dustin McGowan, TOR (at BAL)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McGowan | 0.347 | 4.30 | 0.265 | 2.63 | 0.259 | 0.748 | 0.236 | 3.67 | 0.19 | 18.16 | 59.3% |
| Norris | 0.383 | 5.40 | 0.297 | 3.11 | 0.257 | 0.746 | 0.333 | 3.86 | 0.28 | 94.28 | 63.9% |
| Fernandez | 0.257 | 2.66 | 0.217 | 1.53 | 0.252 | 0.690 | 0.240 | 2.73 | 0.18 | 93.18 | 66.4% |
| Burnett | 0.342 | 4.58 | 0.244 | 2.34 | 0.230 | 0.608 | 0.305 | 2.80 | 0.228 | 100.70 | 64.9% |
| Lester | 0.277 | 3.48 | 0.318 | 3.75 | 0.244 | 0.673 | 0.300 | 3.59 | 0.252 | 107.85 | 64.2% |
| Sabathia | 0.293 | 4.38 | 0.353 | 5.13 | 0.265 | 0.746 | 0.308 | 4.10 | 0.267 | 104.25 | 65.5% |
| Price | 0.218 | 2.63 | 0.313 | 3.71 | 0.241 | 0.700 | 0.298 | 3.03 | 0.251 | 100.26 | 68.8% |
| Cueto | 0.264 | 2.51 | 0.271 | 2.81 | 0.251 | 0.735 | 0.236 | 3.81 | 0.206 | 87.09 | 64.4% |
| Roark | 0.299 | 3.04 | 0.174 | 0.75 | 0.252 | 0.727 | 0.243 | 2.41 | 0.197 | 54.00 | 68.0% |
| Teheran | 0.357 | 4.37 | 0.263 | 2.23 | 0.255 | 0.721 | 0.288 | 3.69 | 0.242 | 96.17 | 66.7% |
| Feldman | 0.291 | 3.59 | 0.290 | 3.64 | 0.261 | 0.724 | 0.258 | 4.03 | 0.229 | 99.77 | 60.9% |
| Darvish | 0.294 | 2.86 | 0.248 | 2.64 | 0.235 | 0.666 | 0.264 | 3.28 | 0.193 | 107.84 | 62.5% |
| Chen | 0.324 | 3.73 | 0.284 | 2.98 | 0.253 | 0.694 | 0.255 | 4.12 | 0.233 | 57.71 | 66.1% |
| Gibson | 0.378 | 5.94 | 0.371 | 6.35 | 0.258 | 0.686 | 0.350 | 5.17 | 0.324 | 90.00 | 58.7% |
| Liriano | 0.161 | 1.93 | 0.309 | 3.41 | 0.267 | 0.732 | 0.290 | 2.92 | 0.222 | 96.00 | 62.3% |
| Peralta | 0.330 | 4.24 | 0.318 | 4.55 | 0.241 | 0.693 | 0.293 | 4.30 | 0.259 | 93.34 | 61.0% |
| Carrasco | 0.413 | 8.64 | 0.350 | 5.00 | 0.251 | 0.681 | 0.364 | 4.10 | 0.322 | 52.47 | 65.7% |
| Sale | 0.166 | 2.23 | 0.304 | 3.20 | 0.271 | 0.763 | 0.289 | 3.17 | 0.228 | 108.27 | 66.9% |
| Samardzija | 0.341 | 4.37 | 0.310 | 4.07 | 0.280 | 0.750 | 0.314 | 3.77 | 0.254 | 104.91 | 62.9% |
| Kelly | 0.314 | 3.05 | 0.313 | 2.30 | 0.240 | 0.686 | 0.289 | 4.01 | 0.257 | 53.16 | 61.4% |
| Ryu | 0.319 | 3.38 | 0.286 | 2.96 | 0.258 | 0.694 | 0.296 | 3.24 | 0.248 | 102.33 | 64.5% |
| McCarthy | 0.324 | 4.42 | 0.350 | 5.25 | 0.268 | 0.724 | 0.320 | 3.75 | 0.292 | 91.32 | 68.7% |
| Gee | 0.356 | 4.55 | 0.292 | 3.07 | 0.267 | 0.738 | 0.296 | 4.00 | 0.264 | 93.28 | 65.8% |
| Skaggs | 0.318 | 3.12 | 0.314 | 4.54 | 0.240 | 0.669 | 0.282 | 4.86 | 0.248 | 94.14 | 63.7% |
| Milone | 0.345 | 5.63 | 0.316 | 3.80 | 0.229 | 0.656 | 0.284 | 4.30 | 0.256 | 92.79 | 64.1% |
| Hernandez | 0.298 | 3.41 | 0.265 | 2.49 | 0.252 | 0.736 | 0.314 | 2.61 | 0.239 | 102.42 | 63.9% |
| Porcello | 0.355 | 5.09 | 0.261 | 3.38 | 0.241 | 0.663 | 0.315 | 3.53 | 0.268 | 88.63 | 64.3% |
| Cashner | 0.302 | 3.57 | 0.263 | 2.59 | 0.290 | 0.786 | 0.269 | 3.35 | 0.23 | 86.68 | 64.5% |
| De La Rosa | 0.231 | 1.75 | 0.348 | 4.33 | 0.257 | 0.690 | 0.303 | 3.76 | 0.263 | 92.47 | 61.9% |
| Bumgarner | 0.232 | 1.88 | 0.277 | 3.02 | 0.269 | 0.717 | 0.251 | 3.05 | 0.199 | 103.35 | 63.9% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window