Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 2nd, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-07-02 18:37:05

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: July 2nd, 2013

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STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

Patrick Corbin, ARI (at NYM) – After a little lull – and I use that term loosely – where Corbin had a 4.44 ERA over four starts after allowing four earned in Wrigley and Chavez Ravine, some seemed to think it was the start of Corbin’s descent back to earth, but it was simply a blip. In the three starts since he has a 1.96 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over 23 innings, logging at least seven in each. Thanks to some modest backing offensively he is a whopping 0-0 during that stretch. This guy is just on another level this year. The Mets have been a bottom five team against lefties all season and if Wade Miley can go 5.7 scoreless with seven strikeouts, then Corbin’s potential is sky high.

Stephen Strasburg, WAS (v. MIL) – What’s this guy gotta do to get some more run support? I mean, he’s not forgotten or anything, but it’s almost as if his 2.41 ERA is expected and thus not seen as particularly special. The two earned runs he gave up in his last outing are the most he’s allowed in his last seven. Yep, he went six straight allowing just one earned. The saddest thing is that he’s just 3-1 in that seven-start run. The offense got a major boost with the return of Bryce Harper on Monday who promptly hit a homer in his first at-bat. One guy rarely makes or breaks a lineup, but Harper really changes the face of that Nats lineup. Add in Anthony Rendon and a surging Ian Desmond, all of sudden we have a team poised for a run.

John Lackey, BOS (v. SD) – I’m being somewhat tongue-in-cheek when I suggest that Strasburg is bit overlooked with his excellent work, but I’m dead serious when I say that Lackey is being all but ignored despite a 2.99 ERA through the first three months of the season. And his June was insane. Not only did he post a 3.03 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 32.7 IP, but he did so while facing Texas (9th in OPS v. RHP), Tampa Bay (12th), Baltimore (2nd, but BOS is 1st so technically it’s the toughest team he can face), Detroit (5th), and Colorado (3rd). Tonight he gets the 26th-ranked team in the Padres. They are a bit better on the road (20th), but it is the easiest matchup he’s had since facing Houston in his second start of the season back on April 28th (6 IP, 1 ER, 4 K).

Clayton Kershaw, LAD (at COL) – Kershaw has already shown this year that he can handle Coors as he allowed three runs in seven innings there during a May 31st no-decision. He fanned five and allowed 10 base runners – not a bad outing, but certainly not something I’m paying top dollar for on a full slate night that will present several better options.

David Price, TB (at HOU) – His performance to date hasn’t been cream of the crop-worthy, but he’s still a top talent and I’m betting that the time off to get healthy ignites his season. If injury wasn’t a contributing factor to his struggles, then we’ll reassess after a few starts. This isn’t the softest landing possible as the Astros do hit lefties a decent bit, but opponent doesn’t matter if Price is the Price we’ve grown accustomed to in his career. And regardless of the pitcher handedness, the Astros are going to pile up strikeouts.

BEST OF THE REST:

Jeff Locke, PIT (v. PHI) – UPDATE: Locke was scratched from today’s start. Brandon Cumpton is starting in his place. A modest strikeout rate is the only thing that keeps Locke out of the cream of the crop as his season has been incredible through three months. Initially I was skeptical of Locke because he was toting a WHIP that just didn’t marry well with his minuscule ERA (suggesting some escapism that likely wouldn’t last), but he’s got a 1.01 WHIP over his last eight starts and while the 86% LOB is still astronomical, he’s tamped down the traffic on the basepaths. He faced the Phillies back on April 23rd and dropped six scoreless on them allowing just four base runners (two hits, two walks) while fanning six.

Kris Medlen, ATL (v. MIA) – Medlen was similar to Locke in that his WHIP was outsized in comparison to his ERA (1.32 WHIP compared to a 3.02 ERA), but he too has turned the tide posting a 1.18 WHIP in his last seven while maintaining his 3.02 ERA. He was never going to be the insane stud we saw in his 12-start run last year, but he’s definitely a good starter and while the Marlins lineup is definitely more potent with Giancarlo Stanton and Logan Morrison back from injury, it’s still very beatable. He cut the Marlins up for seven scoreless (well, one unearned) back on April 9th when Stanton was healthy. He only had one strikeout, but just five base runners and a win.

Homer Bailey, CIN (v. SF) – Bailey’s 3.97 ERA from June was far from special, but his 1.06 WHIP definitely was and it suggests he deserved a better fate. Plus he logged at least seven strikeouts in four of his five outings, reaching eight twice, too. The Giants offense has plummeted of late posting the second-worst OPS against righties in June at just 623. That dropped them from 9th to 17th on the season. Though it’s a challenging venue, Bailey is much better at home with a 3.35 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 10.2 K/9 compared to 4.41, 1.20, and 7.8 on the road.

Doug Fister, DET (at TOR) – Fister’s 3.50 ERA and 1.20 WHIP aren’t exactly indicative of how good he has been this year. His .326 BABIP inflates the WHIP as his 57% groundball rate creates several chances for the Detroit defense to show how inefficient it is despite the addition of Omar Infante at second for the entire season. Behind a crisper defense, he’d likely be toting a sub-3.00 ERA thanks to his 5.0 K/BB and stinginess with the home run (just 4 allowed all year). Alas, he’s stuck with this team and while it will sometimes yield an 8-9 hit barrage (he has six such outings this year), these skills will still return plenty of long, quality outings (he’s gone at least seven in 11 of 16 outings). Tonight’s matchup will be interesting because Toronto doesn’t hit a lot of groundballs with their 43.7% rate checking in at 22 in the majors.

A.J. Griffin, OAK (v. CHC) – Griffin is coming off of his best start ever (a two-hitter against Cincinnati) and he gets the weak-hitting Cubs who just finished June with a .219 AVG against righties (3rd-worst) and a 637 OPS that was 4th-worst “besting” only the Astros, Giants, and Yankees. An underrated aspect of Griffin’s season is that he’s generally avoided the meltdown. He’s only allowed more than four earned once in his 16 starts. Sure, we want our starters to post big scores, but almost as important is avoiding the wretched negative score which basically tanks your entire night regardless of how your offense performs. He was trashed in Boston back in late-April, but if you used him in that outing, you deserved to get blasted.

Lance Lynn, STL (at LAA) – For all of their ineptitude as a team this year, the Angels have hit righties just fine so I think some look at their 39-43 record and assume they aren’t a tough matchup. Lynn’s actually been a tick better against the better teams this year with a 3.43 ERA against .500 or better teams compared to a 3.59 against the sub-.500 clubs, but most of that is probably Miami inexplicably blasting him for seven runs. I always like Lynn because he consistently misses plenty of bats, but there are better options today.

Jered Weaver, LAA (v. STL) – Weaver doesn’t even offer the strikeout potential of Lynn and he’s also facing one of the best lineups in the game. The start in Detroit is encouraging, but I just don’t see the upside with Weaver in this matchup, even at a depressed price.

USE CAUTION:

Scott Feldman, CHC (at OAK) – UPDATE: He was just traded to Baltimore.

Corey Kluber, CLE (at KC) – Getting destroyed in Baltimore kept Kluber from a huge June and even with the six earned in 4.7 innings, he still had a 3.90 ERA for the month. More importantly, he had a 27/6 K/BB in 32.3 IP. The Royals were better in June, but their best work came against lefties as they were still just 20th in OPS against righties. Kluber went seven strong allowing just two runs on seven hits with six strikeouts against the Royals back in April.

Jeremy Hefner, NYM (v. ARI) – Hefner had one of the most underrated Junes in baseball as he posted a 1.80 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in five starts totaling 30 innings. His 23/5 K/BB ratio was particularly impressive. He’s been similar to Griffin in that he’s avoided the true collapse having allowed more than four earned in just one of his 15 starts. His problem area is the home run and he avoided it for the most part in June allowing just two, but he still has a 1.2 HR/9 which tells you just how bad it was before June. Actually it was just April where he allowed seven because he only allowed three in 28 May innings. He’s a sneaky value.

Samuel Deduno, MIN (v. NYY) – Deduno just closed out his best month as a major leaguer posting a 2.61 ERA and more importantly a 1.19 WHIP as he finally commanded his stuff with consistency as evidenced by his 7% BB rate. He had a 15% BB rate in 79 innings last year so this is a drastic improvement and if it’s for real then Deduno offers some real upside. I don’t like him that much as a primary starter, but at the sites using multiple SPs, I think he makes a great value play as a #2 or #3.
The Yankees are obviously awful offensively outside of Robinson Cano, but as Scott Diamond proved yesterday, you still need to get through him. Diamond managed a solid 6.7 IP/2 ER outing despite Cano’s two homers, but it could’ve been a great outing had the lefty been able to stop the league’s best second baseman.

Phil Hughes, NYY (at MIN) – The only reason I’m not flat out ignoring him is because he’s on the road where his ERA is over two runs better. His 3.73 ERA on the road is palatable compared to the 5.86 in Yankee Stadium. The Twins aren’t a particularly powerful team so they aren’t likely to take full advantage of Hughes’ homer weakness, but they aren’t the walkover that many think they are, either. Be careful.

Robbie Erlin, SD (at BOS) – I’m a huge fan long-term and he’s been great in his two starts, but a trip to Fenway is not the place to mess with him. The Red Sox fare much better against righties, but their 713 OPS against southpaws is still league average and he is a heavy flyball pitcher which is a scary proposition in Fenway.

Tim Lincecum, SF (at CIN) – Do you really trust him? I mean, really? I understand the name value and the desire to see him be great again. I even understand that the Reds aren’t a particularly threatening offense, but if you’ve watched him throughout the season, I’m not sure how you can put your hard-earned money down on his right arm right now.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

• Erik Bedard, HOU – He’s been great lately, but TB rakes lefties.
• Luis Mendoza, KC – He’s only given up more than 3 ER once in his last 10, but it was against CLE on 6/19
• Jonathan Pettibone, PHI
• John Danks, CWS
• Joe Saunders, SEA – In Texas? This could be hilarious.
• Jason Hammel, BAL
• Tom Koehler, MIA
• Roy Oswalt, COL
• Justin Grimm, TEX
• Chien-Ming Wang, TOR
• Wily Peralta, MIL

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PARK FACTORS: July 2nd, 2013

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Starting Pitcher Salaries: July 2nd, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

• Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.