Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 16th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niese | NYM | WAS | 45.2 | 2.17 | 3.55 | 1.08 | 19.8% | 5.5% | 0.59 | 1.56 | |
| Roark | WAS | NYM | 44.1 | 3.65 | 3.67 | 1.09 | 20.0% | 5.6% | 1.02 | 1.16 | |
| Volquez | PIT | NYY | 43.1 | 4.36 | 4.39 | 1.21 | 13.9% | 7.2% | 1.04 | 1.62 | |
| Phelps | NYY | PIT | 22 | 4.09 | 4.18 | 1.45 | 20.0% | 11.0% | 1.23 | 1.04 | |
| Gray | OAK | CLE | 54 | 2.17 | 3.68 | 1.17 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 0.50 | 2.15 | |
| McAllister | CLE | OAK | 44 | 3.89 | 3.92 | 1.30 | 20.2% | 7.5% | 0.20 | 0.98 | |
| Simon | CIN | PHI | 43.2 | 2.89 | 4.66 | 1.09 | 12.5% | 6.8% | 1.44 | 1.33 | |
| Kendrick | PHI | CIN | 43 | 3.98 | 4.23 | 1.37 | 14.1% | 6.3% | 1.47 | 1.64 | |
| Scherzer | DET | BOS | 53 | 2.04 | 2.67 | 1.02 | 31.6% | 7.7% | 0.85 | 1.08 | |
| Lester | BOS | DET | 55.2 | 2.75 | 2.67 | 1.09 | 29.9% | 5.9% | 0.49 | 0.93 | |
| Hutchison | TOR | TEX | 45.1 | 4.37 | 3.33 | 1.31 | 25.7% | 7.9% | 0.79 | 1.00 | |
| Darvish | TEX | TOR | 46.1 | 2.33 | 3.00 | 1.08 | 28.4% | 6.8% | 0.58 | 0.70 | |
| Quintana | CWS | HOU | 49 | 3.67 | 3.72 | 1.22 | 19.9% | 6.5% | 0.73 | 1.38 | |
| McHugh | HOU | CWS | 25.2 | 2.81 | 3.05 | 1.03 | 26.5% | 5.9% | 0.35 | 0.86 | |
| Young | SEA | MIN | 37.2 | 2.63 | 5.95 | 1.08 | 12.0% | 10.7% | 0.96 | 0.46 | |
| Gibson | MIN | SEA | 38 | 4.74 | 5.40 | 1.53 | 10.1% | 10.7% | 0.24 | 1.50 | |
| Tillman | BAL | KCR | 47.2 | 3.97 | 4.25 | 1.38 | 19.1% | 9.1% | 1.32 | 0.98 | |
| Guthrie | KCR | BAL | 50.2 | 4.80 | 4.75 | 1.27 | 11.6% | 5.1% | 1.95 | 1.00 | |
| Santana | ATL | STL | 40.2 | 1.99 | 2.76 | 1.02 | 27.6% | 5.8% | 0.44 | 1.57 | |
| Lynn | STL | ATL | 47 | 3.83 | 3.46 | 1.32 | 24.2% | 8.2% | 0.77 | 1.37 | |
| Stults | SDP | COL | 39.1 | 5.03 | 4.67 | 1.66 | 10.6% | 3.9% | 1.83 | 1.18 | |
| De La Rosa | COL | SDP | 43 | 4.81 | 4.09 | 1.35 | 19.3% | 10.2% | 1.26 | 1.86 | |
| Greinke | LAD | ARI | 45.1 | 2.38 | 2.60 | 1.15 | 29.3% | 5.3% | 1.39 | 1.30 | |
| Miley | ARI | LAD | 56 | 4.82 | 3.84 | 1.21 | 20.1% | 7.9% | 1.29 | 1.42 | |
| Archer | TBR | LAA | 45.1 | 5.16 | 3.85 | 1.49 | 18.3% | 7.6% | 0.60 | 1.92 | |
| Weaver | LAA | TBR | 50.1 | 3.22 | 4.11 | 1.14 | 19.7% | 7.4% | 1.07 | 0.71 | |
| Alvarez | MIA | SFG | 48.2 | 3.33 | 3.98 | 1.41 | 15.0% | 6.8% | 0.74 | 2.21 | |
| Petit | SFG | MIA | 26 | 4.85 | 3.00 | 1.31 | 23.9% | 6.4% | 0.69 | 1.55 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack up in their given matchups. If a guy isn’t listed, it’s just kind of a neutral – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Tanner Roark WAS (v. NYM) – I obviously don’t think Roark is better than the next four guys on the list, but from a cost-to-production standpoint, he jumps above them. They will all cost a ton (and should deliver, even against some quality hitters), but Roark is still quite fairly priced and he rebounded from that dud in Philly with a 7.7 IP/1 ER gem in Oakland.
Max Scherzer DET (at BOS) – Perhaps the most impressive thing about Scherzer’s brilliant follow up campaign thus far is how quietly he’s done it. He isn’t really getting much ink for his AL-best 2.04 ERA and 11.2 K/9. The Red Sox are always tough, especially in Fenway, but Scherzer is about as matchup-proof as they come these days so if you’re set on spending big for an arm, you can feel great about rostering Scherzer.
Yu Darvish TEX (v. TOR) – I can basically rinse-and-repeat the analysis from Scherzer with Darvish. He’s been tremendous this year, but it doesn’t seem as though we’re going crazy enough for it. He has once again improved his walk rate, this time a career-best 6.8% BB rate, without much cost to his strikeout rate (down from 32.9% to 28.4%). He is always a threat for a no-hitter and double-digit strikeouts, too.
Zack Greinke LAD (at ARI) – He skipped out on Australia, but he’s still notched a pair of starts against the D’Backs this year. He has a 1.59 ERA in 11.3 IP with 16 strikeouts and just two walks. The pitch counts were built up a bit so he was limited to just 5.3 and 6 IP in the outings, but the gaudy strikeout totals made up for the shorter innings counts.
Ervin Santana ATL (at STL) – He hasn’t gone fewer than six in any outing, he’s allowed more than 3 ER just once, and he’s allowed more than 1 ER just twice. In short, he’s been amazing. Meanwhile, and perhaps somewhat surprisingly, the Cards haven’t been terribly special at the dish this year. Last year they were basically a stayaway with any pitcher, but this year you can feel easier about going against them.
Wade Miley ARI (v. LAD) – Miley’s faced the Dodgers thrice already and while he has a 5.06 ERA in 16 IP, I’m still interested in him here. He has a 5 IP/5 ER dud in there, but the other two were useful 8 K performances with a 3.27 ERA. The Dodgers have been dreadful against lefties this year with a .276 wOBA (29th) and a 25.2% K rate that is third-highest.
Chris Tillman BAL (at KC) – His 3.97 ERA is inflated by that 7 ER disaster in Toronto (he has a 3.00 ERA in his other 7 starts) as he hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any other start. His biggest issue is home runs, something the Royals don’t do very well at all with the fewest in baseball (13). I like Tillman in this spot.
Lance Lynn STL (v. ATL) – His inconsistency is maddening because when he’s on, he’s fantastic. When he’s off, he labors through a modest five or six innings. The Braves, despite their star power at multiple positions, are actually a team to pick on with their league-worst .252 wOBA against righties. Only the Cardinals (.060) carry a worse ISO than Atlanta’s .089 against righties.
Jose Quintana CWS (at HOU) – Despite playing with that potent offense, Quintana is just 1-3 despite quality starts in seven of his eight outings. The Astros are close to league average against southpaws, but I’m still not anywhere close to scared of them, especially with a talented arm like Quintana. Most outlets have him quite fairly priced, too. He’ll get attention because he’s facing Houston, but he’s someone you should be looking at regularly.
Jered Weaver LAA (v. TB) – After a 5.79 ERA through three starts, Weaver has a 1.71 ERA in his last five starts with a 2.9 K/BB ratio. He’s allowed just 1 ER in four of the five starts and then just 2 ER in the other. He isn’t what he used to be and his velocity decrease has left his margin for error razor-thin, but he is still a very good pitcher capable of excellent work. The Rays have sputtered with a middling offense this year and it’s really cooled on the road with the 26th-ranked wOBA against righties.
Yusmeiro Petit SFG (v. MIA) – Editor’s Note: Tim Hudson was listed earlier but has been scratched in favor of Yusmeiro Petit.
NOTE: Sonny Gray and Jon Lester are both unquestioned beasts, but they’re also facing strong lineups with both the Indians and Tigers ranking third in wOBA against the particular handedness they’re facing on Friday. I just think if you’re going to go the expensive stud route, you’re better off elsewhere. No one would be surprised if they were sharp, but the probability is lower with these matchups.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Henderson Alvarez MIA (at SF) – There’s always risk with a guy like Alvarez who thrives by allowing a ton of contact. When it’s going well, he’s getting weak contact right to his defenders, but on the off days, he can get base-hit to death. His last five starts really show the ups and downs with someone like Alvarez: 9 IP/0 ER, 6 IP/2 ER, 6 IP/4 ER, 9 IP/0 ER, and 4 IP/5 ER. That last one was in San Diego of all places. He’s fanned more than four just twice this year so you need one of those long outings to score big, but the Giants have cooled offensively after a hot start.
Chris Archer TB (at LAA) – I’m not really a fan of going against the Angels, but if you need to save some money, Archer’s price has now come down thanks to his 5.18 ERA. However, unpacking his eight starts a bit, you will see that his ERA indicators are all in the mid-3.00s because his strikeout, walk, groundball, and home run rates are all strong. His .345 BABIP and 65.8% LOB rate are terrible. His line drive rate is up which explains the BABIP somewhat, but .743 BABIP on line drives is 90 points higher than the league average so I think he’ll bring back closer to his .280 career mark.
Alfredo Simon CIN (at PHI) – Getting ripped by Colorado isn’t exactly the worst thing ever or particularly surprising. Simon still boasts a 2.89 ERA despite his 3 IP/5 ER smashing against the Rockies. He’s still really cheap despite the excellent fill-in work for Mat Latos.
Drew Hutchison TOR (at TEX) – Picking anyone in Texas is scary, but especially someone of moderate skill like Hutch, but this Rangers team is not scaring anyone right now. They’re actually below league average at home. Hutch has been missing plenty of bats, though he’s been a little inconsistent beyond that. Of course, he is just 23 years old and coming off of a missed 2013 season.
Kyle Gibson MIN (v. SEA) – HERO PLAY ALERT! Gibson has either been excellent or pure trash, nothing in between. He has four starts of 0-1 ER and three starts of 5+ ER. The component skills are wholly uninspiring with 17 Ks against 18 BBs which makes the four starts of 0-1 ER rather impressive, if not altogether a minor miracle.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method. (These guys are listed from best-to-worst, so the last guy on this list is who I’d stack against the most).
- Zach McAllister CLE (v. OAK)
- Edinson Volquez PIT (at NYY)
- Jeremy Guthrie KC (v. BAL)
- Chris Young SEA (at MIN)
- Eric Stults SD (at COL)
- Collin McHugh HOU (v. CWS)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niese | 0.265 | 3.06 | 0.332 | 3.47 | 0.281 | 0.770 | 0.271 | 3.04 | 0.227 | 99.71 | 64.2% |
| Roark | 0.316 | 4.15 | 0.193 | 1.16 | 0.223 | 0.641 | 0.262 | 3.83 | 0.228 | 95.57 | 63.2% |
| Volquez | 0.368 | 6.14 | 0.326 | 4.87 | 0.253 | 0.712 | 0.252 | 4.49 | 0.236 | 79.13 | 65.6% |
| Phelps | 0.327 | 3.88 | 0.344 | 5.94 | 0.244 | 0.683 | 0.281 | 4.83 | 0.241 | 36.27 | 61.2% |
| Gray | 0.285 | 2.91 | 0.235 | 1.81 | 0.254 | 0.732 | 0.271 | 3.35 | 0.224 | 103.13 | 60.7% |
| McAllister | 0.328 | 3.98 | 0.311 | 3.62 | 0.263 | 0.764 | 0.311 | 2.63 | 0.247 | 92.38 | 66.8% |
| Simon | 0.323 | 3.70 | 0.259 | 2.29 | 0.238 | 0.664 | 0.211 | 5.14 | 0.216 | 89.43 | 64.7% |
| Kendrick | 0.323 | 4.31 | 0.342 | 4.82 | 0.248 | 0.700 | 0.280 | 4.94 | 0.266 | 99.00 | 62.2% |
| Scherzer | 0.282 | 3.03 | 0.232 | 2.41 | 0.245 | 0.701 | 0.273 | 2.80 | 0.198 | 109.13 | 64.8% |
| Lester | 0.293 | 3.47 | 0.309 | 3.59 | 0.293 | 0.816 | 0.317 | 2.13 | 0.226 | 112.38 | 65.3% |
| Hutchison | 0.324 | 4.08 | 0.328 | 4.96 | 0.249 | 0.672 | 0.328 | 3.15 | 0.251 | 94.75 | 62.7% |
| Darvish | 0.291 | 3.01 | 0.245 | 2.41 | 0.259 | 0.767 | 0.297 | 2.59 | 0.217 | 105.43 | 62.2% |
| Quintana | 0.319 | 3.45 | 0.302 | 3.62 | 0.255 | 0.688 | 0.299 | 3.33 | 0.25 | 102.88 | 62.9% |
| McHugh | 0.340 | 5.27 | 0.382 | 7.88 | 0.266 | 0.749 | 0.284 | 2.33 | 0.211 | 97.25 | 66.8% |
| Young | 0.280 | 2.31 | 0.238 | 3.29 | 0.251 | 0.720 | 0.179 | 4.80 | 0.179 | 83.57 | 60.5% |
| Gibson | 0.365 | 5.29 | 0.338 | 6.45 | 0.233 | 0.687 | 0.295 | 3.97 | 0.267 | 91.00 | 57.6% |
| Tillman | 0.330 | 4.11 | 0.306 | 3.36 | 0.261 | 0.687 | 0.273 | 4.59 | 0.242 | 106.38 | 63.3% |
| Guthrie | 0.393 | 4.82 | 0.278 | 3.52 | 0.270 | 0.710 | 0.256 | 5.83 | 0.265 | 101.75 | 65.1% |
| Santana | 0.304 | 2.95 | 0.278 | 3.23 | 0.253 | 0.680 | 0.294 | 2.29 | 0.218 | 94.17 | 65.5% |
| Lynn | 0.343 | 5.13 | 0.287 | 3.17 | 0.222 | 0.627 | 0.308 | 3.36 | 0.241 | 104.00 | 63.7% |
| Stults | 0.259 | 3.71 | 0.352 | 4.22 | 0.313 | 0.871 | 0.345 | 5.32 | 0.337 | 80.25 | 65.6% |
| De La Rosa | 0.243 | 2.40 | 0.345 | 4.21 | 0.248 | 0.707 | 0.268 | 4.78 | 0.236 | 95.88 | 60.1% |
| Greinke | 0.323 | 3.09 | 0.263 | 2.19 | 0.256 | 0.698 | 0.304 | 3.41 | 0.237 | 97.50 | 65.8% |
| Miley | 0.321 | 4.91 | 0.323 | 3.61 | 0.214 | 0.630 | 0.269 | 4.34 | 0.238 | 96.78 | 64.2% |
| Archer | 0.327 | 4.09 | 0.271 | 3.30 | 0.250 | 0.732 | 0.345 | 3.44 | 0.287 | 95.38 | 62.6% |
| Weaver | 0.288 | 3.31 | 0.305 | 3.21 | 0.260 | 0.718 | 0.255 | 4.02 | 0.225 | 96.50 | 60.6% |
| Alvarez | 0.314 | 3.93 | 0.282 | 3.11 | 0.228 | 0.669 | 0.318 | 3.82 | 0.281 | 87.13 | 65.0% |
| Petit | 0.276 | 3.86 | 0.324 | 4.19 | 0.257 | 0.744 | 0.342 | 3.03 | 0.267 | 34.91 | 66.4% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window