Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, June 6th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lester | CHC | PHI | 275.2 | 3.07 | 3.26 | 1.10 | 65.0% | 25.0% | 5.8% | 0.75 | 1.58 |
| Morgan | PHI | CHC | 120 | 5.25 | 4.88 | 1.33 | 14.3% | 5.3% | 1.58 | 0.69 | |
| Duffy | KCR | BAL | 173.1 | 3.95 | 4.29 | 1.33 | 57.1% | 19.3% | 8.1% | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| Worley | BAL | KCR | 105.1 | 3.50 | 4.16 | 1.41 | 40.0% | 16.9% | 7.2% | 0.68 | 1.54 |
| Shoemaker | LAA | NYY | 187.2 | 4.75 | 3.90 | 1.31 | 44.4% | 21.1% | 6.0% | 1.49 | 0.96 |
| Tanaka | NYY | LAA | 225.1 | 3.28 | 3.43 | 0.99 | 66.7% | 21.9% | 4.5% | 1.24 | 1.58 |
| Matz | NYM | PIT | 91 | 2.47 | 3.36 | 1.12 | 23.6% | 5.7% | 0.79 | 1.78 | |
| Niese | PIT | NYM | 240.2 | 4.19 | 4.30 | 1.41 | 41.2% | 15.2% | 7.3% | 1.20 | 2.13 |
| Happ | TOR | DET | 242.2 | 3.45 | 4.07 | 1.24 | 30.8% | 19.6% | 6.7% | 0.85 | 1.24 |
| Fulmer | DET | TOR | 41.2 | 3.24 | 3.48 | 1.22 | 25.4% | 7.5% | 1.08 | 1.63 | |
| Fiers | HOU | TEX | 241.2 | 3.98 | 3.90 | 1.27 | 22.1% | 7.4% | 1.27 | 1.03 | |
| Lewis | TEX | HOU | 274.2 | 4.26 | 4.45 | 1.21 | 11.8% | 16.6% | 5.0% | 1.18 | 0.78 |
| Archer | TBR | ARI | 278.1 | 3.59 | 3.28 | 1.23 | 55.0% | 28.1% | 8.3% | 1.00 | 1.39 |
| Ray | ARI | TBR | 184.2 | 3.90 | 4.03 | 1.44 | 33.3% | 22.8% | 9.5% | 0.88 | 1.34 |
| Perez | ATL | SDP | 161 | 4.53 | 4.84 | 1.45 | 13.5% | 9.3% | 0.89 | 1.92 | |
| Friedrich | SDP | ATL | 79.2 | 4.52 | 4.58 | 1.71 | 16.3% | 10.6% | 0.68 | 1.55 | |
| Bauer | CLE | SEA | 228.2 | 4.49 | 4.22 | 1.32 | 38.5% | 22.3% | 10.3% | 1.14 | 1.06 |
| Paxton | SEA | CLE | 70.2 | 4.08 | 4.30 | 1.51 | 50.0% | 19.6% | 9.4% | 1.27 | 1.42 |
| Chatwood | COL | LAD | 69.1 | 2.99 | 4.17 | 1.21 | 25.0% | 15.5% | 6.7% | 0.78 | 2.23 |
| Bolsinger | LAD | COL | 124.1 | 3.69 | 4.08 | 1.34 | 33.3% | 21.2% | 9.5% | 1.01 | 1.64 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Jon Lester CHC (at PHI) – He’ll be the most popular arm today. Sometimes the easiest answer is the correct one. Lester has been excellent this year and draws the light-hitting Phillies. They sit 29th in wRC+ against lefties with a meager 62. Meanwhile, Lester has just one bad start this year (2.7 IP/5 ER at SF on May 21st) and even with that he still has a 2.29 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 70.7 IP. His strikeouts are on the rise, too, with outings of 9, 7, and 10 in his last four. The other one was that SF outing when he fanned just 1.
Steven Matz NYM (at PIT) – The matchup isn’t necessarily the best as the Pirates hit well against lefties, but he’s been so dominant since his season debut that I find him to be matchup-proof. The Marlins clubbed him for 7 ER in just 1.7 IP on April 11th. He’s allowed just 9 ER in 53.7 IP since (1.51 ERA) with 52 strikeouts and nine walks. Not only is he fanning about a batter per inning, but he’s also running a 56% groundball rate, up from 46% last year. Health has been the only real concern for him as a major leaguer, but that’s really more of a season-long fantasy problem. The Miami debut at home is no doubt influencing this, but he’s done his best work on the road with a 1.32 ERA, 29 Ks, and a 7.3 K:BB ratio in 27.3 IP over four starts.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
We’re running light in this tier. Roll Chris Archer out there at your own risk.
Masahiro Tanaka NYY (v. LAA) – Tanaka has quietly been excellent this season. He has maintained nearly identical skills while cutting into his disastrous home run rate from last year. He has dropped from 1.5 HR/9 to a very manageable 0.8 so far this year. His WHIP is the same at 0.99, but now the 2.78 ERA is more commensurate with such a good WHIP. Tanaka misses the all-in tier because LA isn’t a total walkoff. The Angels have (somewhat surprisingly) posted 5.1 runs per games since May 1st and they fan just 16% of the time against righties (MLB-best), but I think Tanaka can still have a solid outing.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lester | 0.282 | 3.13 | 0.282 | 3.05 | 0.251 | 0.676 | 0.293 | 3.00 | 0.23 | 0.01 | 25.0% |
| Morgan | 0.289 | 4.00 | 0.361 | 5.61 | 0.242 | 0.717 | 0.288 | 5.01 | 0.276 | 0.00 | 14.3% |
| Duffy | 0.253 | 2.11 | 0.339 | 4.47 | 0.237 | 0.669 | 0.301 | 4.15 | 0.257 | 0.00 | 19.3% |
| Worley | 0.326 | 2.88 | 0.316 | 3.90 | 0.269 | 0.737 | 0.320 | 3.71 | 0.274 | 0.00 | 16.9% |
| Shoemaker | 0.316 | 5.47 | 0.337 | 3.94 | 0.244 | 0.728 | 0.302 | 4.31 | 0.263 | 0.01 | 21.1% |
| Tanaka | 0.279 | 3.52 | 0.277 | 3.05 | 0.254 | 0.717 | 0.245 | 3.75 | 0.216 | 0.01 | 21.9% |
| Matz | 0.313 | 2.25 | 0.256 | 2.54 | 0.254 | 0.709 | 0.292 | 3.15 | 0.235 | 0.02 | 23.6% |
| Niese | 0.334 | 3.23 | 0.343 | 4.46 | 0.240 | 0.715 | 0.299 | 4.64 | 0.273 | 0.00 | 15.2% |
| Happ | 0.282 | 2.17 | 0.307 | 3.85 | 0.272 | 0.785 | 0.297 | 3.64 | 0.251 | 0.00 | 19.6% |
| Fulmer | 0.252 | 1.45 | 0.332 | 4.70 | 0.259 | 0.777 | 0.300 | 3.58 | 0.239 | 0.04 | 25.4% |
| Fiers | 0.289 | 3.39 | 0.340 | 4.54 | 0.259 | 0.739 | 0.292 | 4.12 | 0.248 | 0.01 | 22.1% |
| Lewis | 0.322 | 4.26 | 0.300 | 4.26 | 0.246 | 0.742 | 0.282 | 4.21 | 0.256 | 0.00 | 16.6% |
| Archer | 0.274 | 3.41 | 0.307 | 3.78 | 0.265 | 0.740 | 0.303 | 3.30 | 0.23 | 0.01 | 28.1% |
| Ray | 0.304 | 2.98 | 0.341 | 4.25 | 0.261 | 0.769 | 0.326 | 3.81 | 0.26 | 0.01 | 22.8% |
| Perez | 0.359 | 5.11 | 0.304 | 3.94 | 0.239 | 0.675 | 0.297 | 4.65 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 13.5% |
| Friedrich | 0.312 | 3.82 | 0.365 | 5.01 | 0.226 | 0.620 | 0.346 | 4.11 | 0.295 | 0.00 | 16.3% |
| Bauer | 0.310 | 4.09 | 0.318 | 4.87 | 0.248 | 0.736 | 0.280 | 4.31 | 0.234 | 0.01 | 22.3% |
| Paxton | 0.468 | 8.49 | 0.284 | 3.20 | 0.265 | 0.730 | 0.307 | 4.46 | 0.265 | 0.01 | 19.6% |
| Chatwood | 0.252 | 2.83 | 0.341 | 3.15 | 0.243 | 0.720 | 0.276 | 3.84 | 0.246 | 0.01 | 15.5% |
| Bolsinger | 0.337 | 2.12 | 0.291 | 4.79 | 0.270 | 0.776 | 0.292 | 4.07 | 0.244 | 0.01 | 21.2% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Matt Shoemaker LAA (at NYY) – Shoemaker is absolutely rolling right now. He has a 1.59 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in his last three starts with 31 Ks and 0 BBs in 22.7 IP. He has gone seven-plus in all three, twice logged double-digit strikeouts, and done so against very capable opposition: BAL, HOU, and DET (all at home). Because he struggles so with home runs when he is off, I couldn’t slot him in the Raise tier. No one would be surprised by 4 IP/6 ER, even against the Yankees. They slot just 25th in wRC+ against righties this year, but jump to 8th at home. Their 4.7% home run rate at home is tied for the league’s best with Baltimore and… Seattle. They are near last with a 2% mark on the road so they definitely get a home field advantage which tamps down the excitement on Shoemaker a little bit.
Michael Fulmer DET (v. TOR) – I debated having him in the Raise tier, but I couldn’t quite pull the trigger. He has been fantastic for three straight starts (0.40 ERA, 0.54 WHIP, 22 Ks in 22.3 IP), but the Jays offense still isn’t necessarily one to be trifled with on the back of a rookie. Their best bats are on the right side and Fulmer has a 204-point reverse platoon split. The fastball is the problem (.930 OPS v. righties) and the Jays have a .225 ISO against righty heat (t3rd in MLB).
Danny Duffy KC (at BAL) – Why do all these intriguing mid-tier options have to get such crummy matchups? Did I just say “crummy”? We’re seeing some of Duffy’s best work so far this year, but he’s only been in the rotation for four turns. He has been mostly good as he rebuilds his stamina. A terrible sixth inning in his third start (5 ER v. CWS) takes some shine off the ERA at 3.86, but his 1.02 WHIP, 19 Ks, and 2 BBs in 18.7 IP point to how well he’s pitched. A trip to Baltimore isn’t as bad if you’re a lefty like Duffy as the O’s are much worse against lefties this year, but I’m not sure Duffy has earned that kind of trust yet. I feel like he could be a good secondary lineup option because the payoff could be substantial.
NEW CATEGORY — CRYING CALL:
You want to recognize their talent even though it doesn’t really translate to DFS success.
Tyler Chatwood COL (at LAD) – Do you have any starters that you constantly think they pitch with the other hand? I always default to Chatwood as a lefty and I’m not sure why. Even at his best, he’s a fringe DFS option thanks to a 16% strikeout rate. He has eclipsed five strikeouts just twice this year.
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Robbie Ray ARI (v. TB)
Adam Morgan PHI (v. CHC)
James Paxton SEA (v. CLE)
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window