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Daily Pitcher Breakdown: September 20th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-09-20 21:51:14

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: September 20th, 2013

PLAYER PERFORMANCE TALENT
PITCHER TM IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Turner MIA 112.2 3.51 4.92 1.43 36.8% 15.1% 10.6% 0.88 1.30
Zimmermann WAS 197.1 3.33 3.68 1.13 60.0% 18.6% 4.8% 0.82 1.55
Matsuzaka NYM 25.0 6.12 4.85 1.40 20.0% 18.6% 9.7% 1.44 0.43
Hamels PHI 207.0 3.48 3.52 1.15 61.3% 22.2% 5.7% 0.87 1.15
Oberholtzer HOU 60.1 2.98 4.25 1.09 62.5% 16.0% 3.7% 1.04 0.72
McAllister CLE 125.0 3.96 4.46 1.35 50.0% 17.6% 8.4% 0.86 0.89
Latos CIN 197.2 3.14 3.62 1.21 56.7% 21.6% 6.5% 0.55 1.34
Liriano PIT 148.0 2.92 3.55 1.23 66.7% 24.1% 9.6% 0.43 2.01
Lincecum SFG 184.0 4.40 3.75 1.32 36.7% 23.1% 9.2% 0.98 1.43
Sabathia NYY 204.0 4.90 3.92 1.37 25.8% 19.4% 7.1% 1.24 1.36
Rienzo CWS 50.0 5.04 5.11 1.56 44.4% 15.0% 12.0% 1.80 1.32
Scherzer DET 201.1 2.95 2.90 0.96 66.7% 29.0% 6.3% 0.76 0.84
Rogers TOR 131.0 4.47 4.08 1.37 44.4% 16.3% 6.8% 1.31 1.57
Lester BOS 201.1 3.75 4.00 1.28 45.2% 19.4% 7.4% 0.80 1.24
Hammel BAL 130.0 5.12 4.67 1.48 27.3% 15.4% 8.4% 1.52 1.10
Price TBR 165.2 3.42 3.44 1.09 54.2% 20.6% 3.8% 0.81 1.32
Perez TEX 106.1 3.64 4.34 1.34 47.1% 15.0% 6.6% 1.10 1.46
Santana KCR 197.2 3.23 3.75 1.14 56.7% 19.3% 5.7% 1.14 1.42
Miller STL 161.1 3.01 3.57 1.20 37.9% 24.1% 7.8% 1.06 0.96
Hellweg MIL 21.2 8.31 6.45 2.22 0.0% 4.2% 14.2% 1.25 2.53
Delgado ARI 106.1 3.98 3.98 1.19 35.3% 17.3% 4.9% 1.78 1.17
Chacin COL 187.1 3.22 4.21 1.21 55.2% 16.1% 7.1% 0.43 1.62
Ramirez SEA 65.0 4.98 4.24 1.40 27.3% 17.8% 7.3% 1.66 1.05
Shoemaker LAA Debut
Albers MIN 49.2 3.81 4.62 1.07 50.0% 10.6% 2.0% 0.72 1.06
Colon OAK 178.1 2.73 4.32 1.19 60.7% 14.0% 3.7% 0.61 1.12
Volquez LAD 159.0 5.94 4.33 1.60 33.3% 18.2% 9.6% 1.02 1.56
Erlin SDP 40.0 5.18 4.72 1.48 57.1% 14.9% 7.5% 1.13 0.81

STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

TOP 14:

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Max Scherzer, DET (v. CWS) – Is now the time for #20? Scherzer was excellent in his last outing, but a Drew Smyly wild pitch cost him his 20th win of the season. Scherzer had a 7 IP/1 ER effort with 12 Ks and I think we could see something similar tonight against the Sox. He has a 2.81 ERA and 0.97 WHIP against the White Sox in four starts this year along with 23 Ks in 25.7 IP.

Cole Hamels, PHI (v. NYM) – Before his last outing where he went 6 IP/3 ER, he had nine straight starts of at least seven innings posting a 2.01 ERA with a 60/9 K/BB ratio in the 67 IP of work. Of course since the Phillies are terrible he was just 3-1 in that stretch and then of course got a win in the 6 IP/3 ER outing. He faced the Mets during the nine-start stretch posting a 7 IP/2 ER effort with 8 Ks and one of the three wins.

Jordan Zimmermann, WAS (v. MIA) – Zimm had an ugly 5 IP/8 ER meltdown in mid-August, but has since surged toward the finish line with a 3.15 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in five starts during which he’s gone at least seven innings four times posting a 4-1 record overall. He also has a 29/6 K/BB ratio in that span. He’s only faced the division rival Marlins twice this year, both in April, but he’s allowed just four earned runs in 15 innings with two wins.

Mat Latos, CIN (at PIT) – Ho-hum, just another great season for Latos. It’s probably his best since that breakout 2010 (2.92 ERA in 184.7 IP) season with the Padres. He’s been solid against the Pirates this year with a 3.57 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in four starts spanning 22.7 IP with 27 Ks, but just a 1-1 record. He did have a 6.7 IP/5 ER last time out, but he still has a 2.59 ERA in his last eight starts.

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Francisco Liriano, PIT (v. CIN) – Liriano still has his annoying implosions from time-to-time including his 3 IP/7 ER to start the month, but even with that outing and a 2.3 IP/10 ER destruction in Coors, he still has a 2.92 ERA in 24 starts this year. He hasn’t faced Cincy since July and after a pair of gems against them, he was knocked around for a 4.3 IP/5 ER dud against them in that July outing. He has two straight gems since the 3 IP/7 ER outing to start the month and I think we will see a nice pitcher’s duel in this crucial game to kick off a very important series for both teams.

Jon Lester, BOS (v. TOR) – Lester has very quietly rebounded to save his season. After posting a 2.72 ERA in his first nine starts, he fell off completely with a 6.27 ERA in his next 11 heading into the All-Star break, but since the break he’s allowed more than 3 ER just once in 11 starts posting a 2.38 ERA and 62/18 K/BB ratio in 75.7 IP of work. It’s hard to think that he’s been a bit overlooked given his team’s high profile and how great they have been this year, but I think that all of the Red Sox have been a bit overlooked this year. The Jays haven’t been able to handle lefties at all this year and Lester has a 6.3 IP/2 ER outing against them since the break.

David Price, TB (v. BAL) – Price hasn’t really followed up his Cy Young season as well as we’d have hoped, but he’s been solid and definitely righted the ship after an ugly start. He had a 5.24 ERA in nine starts before hitting the DL, but he’s been at a 2.52 ERA clip in 15 starts since returning from injury. He also has an 86/11 K/BB ratio in 110.7 IP over those 15 starts. The O’s aren’t easy, but I still like Price here.

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Ervin Santana, KC (v. TEX) – Is Big Erv the Comeback Player of the Year? I’d say so if you consider the COPY to be someone who is either coming back from injury or from poor performance. Some want it to only be the former, but either way, he’s been great this year. He hasn’t been quite as dominant lately, but I can’t imagine anyone having an issue with the 3.82 ERA and 25/6 K/BB ratio over his last five outings spanning 30.7 IP. He brings strikeouts and long outings, plus the Rangers offense hasn’t been the threatening force we’ve been used to this year.

Shelby Miller, STL (at MIL) – The only real downside with Miller lately has been a lack of innings as he’s gone more than six innings just twice in his last 10 with 50.7 IP in that time. But his 3.55 ERA in that time is still plenty useful as are his 44 Ks. Meanwhile, he’s dominated the Brewers in three starts this year: 1.08 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 25 Ks in 25 IP.

Bartolo Colon, OAK (v. MIN) – Colon faltered a bit before hitting the DL in late-August, but he seemed to just need some rest because he’s returned with a bang posting a 0.95 ERA in three starts with a 17/2 K/BB ratio in 19 IP. It’s just been a ridiculously good season for Colon this year and I expect to keep it going against the Twins tonight.

Erasmo Ramirez, SEA (at LAA) – I like Ramirez on his own, but the fact that Jered Weaver got scratched by the Angels as his counterpart makes him an even more appealing start because of a heightened win probability. A minor leaguer named Matt Shoemaker will start in Weaver’s place. After a 7.25 ERA in his first four starts, Ramirez has settled down with a 3.82 in his last seven which is inflated by his 4 IP/5 ER outing against the Cards last time out. He’s probably best deployed as a #2 starter in your lineup, but if you want to go with a bargain option as your #1, he’s not a bad choice.

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Zach McAllister, CLE (v. HOU) – McAllister has just been solid this year. Nothing special for the Indians or for fantasy, but definitely useful and a start against the Astros gives him a nice opportunity to be particularly useful, especially as a #2. He can miss bats, though he doesn’t excel with it consistently. I suspect we will see 6-7 punchouts against the Astros, though.

Esmil Rogers, TOR (at BOS) – From July 4th – August 9th, Rogers was horrible! He had an 8.50 ERA in seven starts and looked completely unusable, but he’s rebounded brilliantly with a 2.62 ERA in his last five including a 27/8 K/BB ratio. He kicked off the stretch with a 6 IP/1 ER outing against the Red Sox, too. I don’t love the idea of him as my #1 against the Sox, but as a secondary guy, he’s very intriguing.

BOTTOM SIX:

ADVANCED METRICS: September 20th, 2013

VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS OPP vs L/R OTHER ADVANCED STATS
PITCHER wOBA L ERA L wOBA R ERA R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Turner 0.332 3.73 0.336 3.49 0.258 0.734 0.281 4.49 0.251 93.68 60.2%
Zimmermann 0.319 3.25 0.284 3.47 0.230 0.613 0.279 3.40 0.241 96.07 68.3%
Matsuzaka 0.330 4.38 0.360 7.82 0.253 0.701 0.274 5.25 0.245 92.40 64.3%
Hamels 0.305 4.79 0.309 3.15 0.241 0.678 0.292 3.31 0.240 103.39 67.6%
Oberholtzer 0.378 2.93 0.277 3.09 0.270 0.768 0.266 3.76 0.244 83.00 67.9%
McAllister 0.335 4.19 0.327 3.74 0.239 0.679 0.294 4.00 0.254 97.64 63.8%
Latos 0.315 3.25 0.285 3.10 0.242 0.700 0.301 2.97 0.242 101.27 66.0%
Liriano 0.165 2.08 0.313 3.22 0.242 0.709 0.291 2.86 0.222 95.75 62.1%
Lincecum 0.306 4.28 0.324 4.53 0.245 0.694 0.299 3.75 0.242 101.90 61.9%
Sabathia 0.297 4.17 0.356 5.17 0.260 0.689 0.307 4.13 0.267 104.16 65.6%
Rienzo 0.333 4.89 0.420 5.52 0.293 0.796 0.266 5.97 0.258 93.89 57.5%
Scherzer 0.284 3.17 0.218 2.72 0.251 0.682 0.261 2.68 0.197 105.83 66.1%
Rogers 0.374 4.79 0.318 4.29 0.284 0.819 0.298 4.51 0.271 50.52 62.8%
Lester 0.314 3.92 0.320 3.73 0.241 0.682 0.296 3.61 0.250 107.71 64.1%
Hammel 0.387 6.26 0.320 3.72 0.250 0.734 0.301 5.19 0.280 94.09 62.1%
Price 0.230 3.10 0.313 3.60 0.253 0.718 0.294 3.10 0.248 99.63 68.7%
Perez 0.361 3.24 0.321 3.79 0.263 0.697 0.291 4.26 0.266 92.71 63.8%
Santana 0.306 2.87 0.302 3.77 0.261 0.731 0.271 3.91 0.239 100.07 65.4%
Miller 0.339 3.61 0.270 2.58 0.250 0.702 0.282 3.63 0.230 95.69 65.8%
Hellweg 15.12 4.15 0.277 0.747 0.311 7.43 6.840 72.83 58.6%
Delgado 0.341 3.99 0.330 3.99 0.268 0.748 0.270 4.83 0.258 91.61 65.9%
Chacin 0.329 3.75 0.281 2.80 0.258 0.717 0.284 3.26 0.244 95.72 64.6%
Ramirez 0.344 5.03 0.339 4.91 0.270 0.753 0.291 4.99 0.267 93.83 62.6%
Shoemaker 0.246 0.723
Albers 0.284 2.63 0.293 4.25 0.257 0.759 0.268 3.55 0.254 89.88 68.3%
Colon 0.307 3.06 0.281 2.43 0.237 0.692 0.297 3.24 0.266 92.36 68.5%
Volquez 0.365 6.44 0.354 5.47 0.242 0.671 0.329 4.24 0.281 91.23 60.9%
Erlin 0.364 6.92 0.324 4.44 0.256 0.708 0.315 4.35 0.286 79.11 64.0%

Starting Pitcher Salaries: September 20th, 2013

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

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About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.