Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Team Preview: Chicago Cubs
Baseball is almost here! With an eventful offseason in the books and spring training underway, it’s time to preview all 30 teams in Major League Baseball. With the help of RotoGrinders PlateIQ Premium, DFS ownership trends from Chris Gimino, and our resident Premium MLB guru Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood), we take a look at some information that is definitely interesting and possibly helpful for the upcoming 2019 MLB season.
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Preseason Overview
— Vegas Win Total O/U: 89.5
— World Series Odds: 10/1
— Key Additions: Daniel Descalso
Other Noteworthy Players for DFS: Daniel Descalso, Victor Caratini, David Bote
— Outlook: The Cubs will need to prove it all over again, as their 2018 season fell well short of expectations. They have a number of players we consider to be superstars on offense, but we just didn’t see that kind of production from them when it was all said and done. Now the division is loaded with competitive teams, and this may be their toughest test since their magical run in 2016.
The core of Cubs bats will return with a number of stars searching for bounce back seasons. Kris Bryant shows up surprisingly low in PlateIQ’s contact quality average from 2018, and a cursory look at Statcast data suggests his exit velocity (85.8 MPH, rank 275) and barrel rate (5.9%, rank 102) have quite a bit of room for positive improvement. His xWOBA of .359 was a steep decline from his previous two seasons in which he finished in the top 4% in the league (.396, .399). Anthony Rizzo hit the ball harder (89.9 MPH, Rank 79) but was also dismal at creating the best quality contact (Rank 148 Barrel rate). Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, and Ian Happ all had plate discipline issues (all of them under 74% contact and over 22% strikeouts). After a season in which mostly everybody showed signs of decay, we’d really like to see this team get out of the gates with some intensity.
The pitching staff gives us reason for pause. Jon Lester looks like he is about cooked, with limited strikeout ability and plenty of production allowed. Kyle Hendricks has limited use for us in DFS, though he is useful in real life for the Cubs. Jose Quintana and Cole Hamels are both lefties vulnerable to hard hits, and Hamels no longer has the big strikeouts to save him. Yu Darvish is a curious case. He threw only 40 innings last year and underwent surgery in September. He was inconsistent during his starts in 2018, but stands a chance at improvement if his health and mechanical issues are corrected. Overall, the pitching situation is sub-optimal here in Chicago. It will likely hold them back this season.
— DFS Ownership Trends: Cole Hamels nearly hit the top 100 in terms of pitchers to target against last season. Pitching in Texas doesn’t help that cause, but he did allow 19 stolen bases and a top 60 xWOBA. He’s had a great career, but DFS players seem well aware that he isn’t the same player. The Cubs as a team were probably responsible for a ton of lost money in 2018. They were the sixth-most popular team to roster despite their 22nd ranking in total home runs, 24th ranking in stolen bases, and 22nd ranking in ISO. I’d be carefully watching their popularity as compared to their production in the first few months.
Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes
— Among 140 qualified hitters last season, Javier Baez ranked seventh in zone swing rate (78.0%). That’s good. Unfortunately, he paired it with a 48.0% chase rate, second-highest among qualifiers. That’s…not good. But it’s also Baez’s game. He is what he is, which is a free-swinging, hard-hitting, immensely talented, occasionally frustrating hitter. There are certain players you’ll want to avoid watching if you’re heavily invested. Baez is the poster boy for that class of player.
— Since 2016, Anthony Rizzo is one of just three qualified hitters in MLB to post a .225 ISO and strike out fewer than 14 percent of the time. If what we’re looking for in DFS cash games are guys who make frequent contact, Rizzo certainly fits the bill, and the power is just an added bonus. He should have no trouble compiling 25 HRs and 100 RBI, joining Ernie Banks and Sammy Sosa as the only players in Cubs franchise history to post 25/100 in five consecutive seasons.