Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Team Preview: Cincinnati Reds
Baseball is almost here! With an eventful offseason in the books and spring training underway, it’s time to preview all 30 teams in Major League Baseball. With the help of RotoGrinders PlateIQ Premium, DFS ownership trends from Chris Gimino, and our resident Premium MLB guru Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood), we take a look at some information that is definitely interesting and possibly helpful for the upcoming 2019 MLB season.
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Cincinnati Reds Preseason Overview
— Vegas Win Total O/U: 79.5
— World Series Odds: 80/1
— Key Additions: Derek Dietrich, Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Sonny Gray, Alex Wood, Tanner Roark
Other Noteworthy Players for DFS: Matt Kemp, Alex Blandino, Derek Dietrich, Curt Casali, Nick Senzel
— Outlook: They are 80/1 long shots to win the World Series and still don’t have a highly competitive team. For DFS, they’ll have a chance to matter. The stretch of their projected lineup from Joey Votto down to Yasiel Puig packs just enough punch to raise an eyebrow. Eugenio Suarez delivered a 45.5% (rank 34) Statcast hard hit rate and 34 HR in 2018. He should continue to have RBI opportunity hitting behind master-technician Joey Votto. They’ve also got a top prospect in Nick Senzel coming soon, who isn’t a raw power guy on paper but can smash doubles with well measured quality contact. In the grand scheme, the Reds lineup won’t inspire fear across the league but they aren’t the worst lineup out there either.
The Reds pitching staff figures to be a very inconsistent group. Sonny Gray has had problems preventing quality contact. Alex Wood, while capable, was not getting extended innings in his time with the Dodgers. He threw more than six innings just three times all season. Tanner Roark is not a DFS darling, and is barely usable at all. Anthony Desclafani did not perform well returning from injury last season, and it remains to be seen if he’ll ever be any good again. Even their most appealing arm in Luis Castillo saw his fastball velocity decline from 97.4 MPH in 2017 to 95.8 MPH in 2018. All five guys have had their moments during their careers, and yet we find ourselves entering 2018 with limited confidence in their overall ability to get the job done.
— DFS Ownership Trends: Great American Ballpark was the sixth-most used stadium in DFS last year on DraftKings. They did add some new pitchers to the mix, and perhaps we won’t find ourselves full stacking quite as often this year, but this will remain a popular DFS stadium to target. Perhaps more importantly, Homer Bailey is gone. He was the 12th-most popular pitcher to own batters against last season, and his absence will put a dent in Great American ownership without question.
Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes
— After tons of breakout hype, Luis Castillo had an up-and-down sophomore season in 2018. While his execution may have been off, there’s still plenty of reason for optimism. Two of those reasons: 1.) Castillo has one of the elite changeups in the game (105 strikeouts on the pitch, most in MLB this year), which should serve to neutralize lefties, and 2.) Castillo still gets elite swings and misses when he pounds the zone. His 80.4% zone contact rate in 2018 was sixth-best in MLB, trailing only Scherzer, Verlander, deGrom, Cole, and Snell.
— Only six players in MLB have recorded 20+ home runs and 15+ steals in each of the last two seasons: Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Tommy Pham, and … Yasiel Puig. It’s going to be fun watching Puig hit a bunch of home runs in Great American Ball Park, and if he can swipe a few bags along the way, he’ll be a sneaky source of points hitting in the middle of the order behind Votto, Suarez, and Gennett.