FanDuel NFL 3-Man Challenge Strategy: Week 14
Hello Grinders. I thought I’d mix things up a bit this Friday and look at the NFL 3-Man Challenge for Week 14. Just as a reminder, we’re working within a $7 salary cap, with options ranging from $1 to $5. Let’s look at some of my favorite daily fantasy football options from each price tier:
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$5 Range
Christian McCaffrey – We only have two $5 options this week, and it’s between CMC and Lamar Jackson. Jackson’s floor and ceiling are high, but he gets a tough matchup against the Bills on the road with 15-20 MPH winds per Roth’s weather report. Meanwhile, McCaffrey gets a friendlier matchup against a Falcons defense that ranks 13th in Run DVOA and 27th in Pass DVOA. Furthermore, Greg Olsen is looking questionable/doubtful with a concussion and his absence would open up a few more looks for the others in this offense. McCaffrey has already faced this Falcons defense just three weeks ago and finished with 24.6 FD points. If I’m taking a chance on a $5 player, it’s CMC over Lamar this week.
$4 Range
Deshaun Watson – There are a ton of options in the $4 range that are viable and Watson is one of my favorite options. The Texans are big 9.5 point home favorites against the Broncos which is a slight concern since I actually prefer Watson on the road as an underdog, as that would force him him air it out more. If this game stays closer than Vegas expects, that would bode well for Watson. Some projection systems actually have Watson with a higher median projection than Lamar Jackson, making him an elite option at $4.
Derrick Henry – Henry doesn’t have the same floor that a lot of the $4 quarterbacks have like Watson, Jameis Winston, Patrick Mahomes or Kyler Murray, but Henry arguably has a higher ceiling than them. He’s reached 22+ FD points in four straight weeks, including a 32.1 FD point explosion against the Chiefs just three weeks ago. While Henry carries a questionable tag, he appears to be trending fine and this is a plus-matchup on paper for him. The Raiders rank 26th in Run DVOA and the 7-5 Titans are riding a three-game winning streak behind Henry and Ryan Tannehill. There is big upside here if he can find the end zone and get fed like a grown man at a Hometown Buffet.
$3 Range
Leonard Fournette – Touchdowns have been an issue for Fournette as he’s 7th in rushing attempts but tied for 30th in rushing touchdowns with just three all season. Two of them came two weeks ago against the Titans where he finished with 32.4 FD points. The Chargers are not a defense to be feared, as they rank among the bottom third of the league in both Run and Pass DVOA. Fournette is a true workhorse and arguably gets an upgrade this week with Gardner Minshew under center, who has been more willing than Nick Foles to throw the deep ball and stretch the field. If Fournette can find the end zone once (or twice) this week, he could pay off his $3 price tag in a big way.
Ryan Fitzpatrick – There are a ton of good $3 quarterback options like Matt Ryan, Sam Darnold against a bad Miami defense and Baker Mayfield against the awful Bengals. All three are options I’d consider. I chose to write up Ryan Fitzpatrick because while I consider him as having a lower floor than those three, his ceiling and range of outcomes feels wider than those three. Fitzpatrick has topped 25+ FD points now in back-to-back games and I feel like this game has some sneaky shootout potential. It’s a #revenge game for Fitzpatrick and with all of his running back options out except DFS-darling Patrick Laird, I can see a route where the team leans on his arm in this spot.
$2 Range
DeVante Parker – If you go the $3 Fitzpatrick route, pairing him with a $2 DeVante Parker is a viable stacking strategy. Parker has come alive lately, seeing double-digit targets in four straight games, including a 31.4 FD point explosion last week against the Eagles. The Jets are not someone we should be scared of, as they have shown signs of being a funnel defense where they rank 2nd in Run DVOA but 21st in Pass DVOA. As mentioned above, with just Patrick Laird left, it makes sense to rely on Parker and the passing attack.
Will Fuller – I’m not going to spend too much time on Fuller because he has a questionable tag and isn’t a lock to play. But if he does suit up and doesn’t carry any limitations, we all know Fuller can be explosive like diarrhea. He’s as boom/bust as they come, but when he booms, get ready. He dropped a 46.7 FD point game with three touchdowns back in October against the Falcons, so the ceiling is massive if he’s on the field and catching the deep bombs. Denver ranks 17th in Pass DVOA, so it’s a neutral matchup on paper for Fuller.
Derek Carr – Carr and Devlin Hodges are two quarterback options I’m eyeing in this range. I like Carr’s spot on paper against a Titans team that is playing well. The Raiders are 2.5 point underdogs at home, which could make this a spot where they are forced to air it out in comeback mode. This game also has a sneaky 47.5 over/under, which is just one point less than what Vegas has the Chiefs/Patriots game at to put this into some context. Carr has a decent floor but I’ll admit his ceiling isn’t the greatest. The case for Hodges is that he gets to face the Cardinals, who continue to grade out as a bottom-four defense against the pass. We still don’t know much about Hodges, but he appears to be an upgrade over Mason Rudolph.
$1 Range
Robby Anderson – As you can probably tell, I’m likely higher on this Jets/Dolphins game than most. This is a home game for Anderson, and something escot4 mentioned on the ownership report was that Anderson’s home/road splits are dramatic where they favor his home splits. In 29 home games, he has 13 touchdowns and averages 63.9 yards per game. In 29 road games, he has just 5 touchdowns and averages 33.6 yards per game. I don’t know why the splits are so dramatic, but they are, and this is a home game. The Dolphins rank dead last in Pass DVOA and all Anderson needs is a long pass or two to pay off his salary.
Rashaad Penny – Chris Carson continues to deal with fumble issues as he now has seven for the season, and that has opened the door for Rashaad Penny to get involved. Penny played on 47% of the snaps last week and this is looking like a committee. Penny turned his 47% snap share into a 15-74-1 line on the ground and a 4-33-1 line through the air for 24.7 FD points. There’s always a chance Carson gets the majority of the work as Pete Carroll is unpredictable, but Carson is also arguably a fumble away from losing his job. The Seahawks remain the 4th most run-heavy offense in the league, meaning there’s plenty of work to go around for both Carson and Penny.
Darwin Thompson – I’m just going to mention Thompson and say that Darrel Williams is on IR, Damien Williams has been ruled out and LeSean McCoy is just old. The team did sign old friend Spencer Ware, but there’s a chance Thompson is leading this backfield on Sunday. Thompson had a 11-44-1 line on the ground last week for 10.4 FD points. He’s not someone I’m wanting to jam in for $1 as of Friday, but I can see a route where maybe he becomes viable if we see coach-speak that hypes up Thompson and downplays the roles of McCoy and Ware.
Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend. May variance be on your side.