Fontaine's Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 2

by Bryan Fontaine (rookieblitz) Last Updated 2013-09-15 15:18:00

Bryan Fontaine (RookieBlitz on RotoGrinders) is regarded as one of the best dynasty minds in the business. He is the Dynasty Editor and a Senior Writer for PFF Fantasy at ProFootballFocus.

Each week I will recommend several players that are primed for big performances when you look deeper at the numbers and trends. With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football, simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone won’t give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups.

Note: Hit the ($) icon for player prices this week

Last week my recommendations were a mixed bag. Most of the players came close to the projections from a catches and yardage stand point but the players failed to find the end zone. We’ve got more data points and trends to go on this week, so let’s get to the recommendations:

Jay Cutler – (QB) Bears vs. MIN

Jay Cutler looks like a new player under the tutelage of quarterback whisper Marc Trestman. After a slow start against a stout Bengals defense last week, Cutler engineered a comeback with a quick passing game. His comfort level became more apparent when we look at his average depth of throw splits by half:

Only five of his 16 aimed passes in the first half traveled more than 10 yards in the air. Compare that to seven of his 13 second half throws which included his 38 yard completion and 19 yard touchdown pass to Brandon Marshall. Make no mistake that Cutler still has sights set on Marshall (30% of targets against CIN), but he was more willing to work in second-year player Alshon Jeffery and new tight end Martellus Bennett with Matt Forte. More importantly, the Bears’ improved offensive line did not surrender a sack and only allowed seven quarterback hurries and three quarterback hits.

Cutler has an enticing matchup with the Vikings this week. Cutler averaged 224 passing yards, one touchdown, two interceptions and two sacks taken in his two games against Minnesota last year in a much different offensive scheme. The Vikings surrendered 357 yards passing and two touchdowns to Matthew Stafford last week despite holding Calvin Johnson in check. Look for Cutler to continue to enjoy his comfy pocket and pick apart the Vikings secondary for a big fantasy day this week.

Projection

Terrelle Pryor – (QB) Raiders vs. JAX

Fortune usually favors the brave. For those that took the “risk” on Terrelle Pryor last week at Indianapolis were rewarded with a big fantasy day at an extreme value. I personally didn’t use Pryor and it’s a mistake I do not plan on making again this week. His salary saw a modest increase across the board, but still leaves plenty of upside among his peers because of his running ability.

Running quarterbacks don’t always have the week to week consistency of traditional pocket passers, but the quarterbacks that do run often almost appear like they are cheating on the final fantasy box scores. Here is a quick look at the top scrambling quarterbacks in Week 1:

Pryor has the lead by a wide margin, and that does not take into account his seven other designed runs that lead to his 112 yards on the ground. Now that we’ve set the expectation for his tendencies, what does that mean for this week?

Alex Smith didn’t need to have a high volume day against Jacksonville last week, but the Jaguars defense still allowed 173 yards and two touchdowns through the air. They also allowed Smith to scramble three times for 25 yards – something Pryor should be able to exploit this week. Pryor is going to be more willing to push the ball down the field (10.7 aDOT) as well and take advantage of the injured secondary.

He may not be the bargain he was last week, but Pryor is primed to turn in another strong performance.

Projection

LeSean McCoy – (RB) Eagles vs. SD

Raise your hand if you saw this Eagles offense coming. I certainly didn’t foresee the shear breakneck speed working because I didn’t think they would be able to string together enough first downs to stay on the field. They did just that, and a big reason was LeSean McCoy ‘s blitzkrieg on the Redskins defense. Chip Kelly took the foot off the gas in the second half and they only ran 77 plays. They could have played even faster he said.
Nonetheless, McCoy started strong and finished even stronger – especially gaining 50 yards after first contact in the second half and forcing an astounding nine missed tackles:

McCoy gets another juicy matchup against a San Diego team traveling across the country for an early start. They are fresh off an emotional loss on Monday night and allowed the Texans to total 112 yards rushing on 27 attempts. If the Eagles run the ball 60 percent of the time again – McCoy is a lock for top overall honors at the running back position this week. Find a way to get him in your lineup.

Projection

Doug Martin – (RB) Buccaneers vs. NO

Week 1 always leads to overreactions and overcorrections. Doug Martin is not a player to overreact on, especially in light of what the Jets run defense did to the Patriots on Thursday night. Martin’s 65 yard one touchdown performance against the Jets looks impressive when you consider the Jets only allowed 54 rushing yards total to Stevan Ridley and company.

Prior history is not going to be the best barometer for success. Martin only averaged 51 yards rushing in two matchups against the Saints last year – largely impacted by his paltry 16 yard performance in Week 15. It should not go unnoticed that Martin will have both of his starting guards plowing the way for him for the first time against an injury-ravaged front seven for the Saints.

Projection

Joique Bell – (RB) Lions at ARZ

Mikel Leshoure, we hardly know thee. Bell flashed in a big way against the Vikings and scored 1.6 PPR fantasy points every time had an offensive opportunity. That included six rushing attempts and 10 pass routes run. We know Reggie Bush was the talk of Week 1, but Bell filled a similar role in the offense when he took his spot. Matthew Stafford threw at Bell five times on just those 10 pass routes, a rate unlikely to keep pace with. It is interesting to note that he was targeted on 27 percent of his pass routes last season for comparison.

Bell is not going to steal Bush’s role anytime soon, but he is the goal line back as well. He punched the ball into the end zone on his only red zone carries – from 1 and 2 yards out respectively. If you prescribe to the studs and scrubs method of filling out a lineup, you could do a lot worse than Bell this week.

Projection

Brandon Marshall – (WR) Bears vs. MIN

Brandon Marshall has a plus matchup this weekend against Minnesota. The Vikings schemed to hold Calvin Johnson to just four catches for 37 yards, but won’t be as lucky with Marshall because of the other weapons the Bears have that the Lions did not on the outside.
Marshall tore up the Vikings in both contests last year, and Minnesota returns several of the same defenders (notated with a *). This chart doesn’t include rookie left corner Xavier Rhodes or returning from injury right cornerback Chris Cook.

Based on Marshall’s position specific snap distribution, he is likely to see more of Cook than Rhodes in this contest. Cook allowed five catches for 49 yards and a touchdown in coverage last week. Marshall is a good bet to be the top fantasy wide receiver this weekend.

Projection

Andre Johnson – (WR) Texans vs. TEN

If Andre Johnson is slowing down due to age, I certainly don’t see it. He torched the Chargers for 12 receptions for 146 yards on Monday night, mostly on shorter passes, which allowed him to gain 40 yards after the catch. Part of the reason for Johnson’s high target volume was the comeback bid for the Texans, but that goes right in line with what the coaching staff has said about passing more this season.

Although the Titans cornerbacks (Alterraun Verner and Jason McCourty) kept the Steelers passing game in check last week, Johnson had success against Verner last year, his likely opponent this week:

Don’t be alarmed by the presence of DeAndre Hopkins. The rookie is helping keep extra defenders from shadowing Johnson over the top. Look for a second consecutive big fantasy day for Johnson this week.

Projection

Marlon Brown – (WR) Ravens vs. CLV

The who is that sleeper pick of the week goes to Marlon Brown. The undrafted free agent from Georgia was thrust on to the national stage when Jacoby Jones went down with an injury.

Looking at Brown’s matchup this week, it is setting up for a huge fantasy day. If we look back at what the Browns defenders did against Miami last week, we can paint a fairly accurate picture for this week. The Ravens, like Miami, only have one established receiver that Joe Haden will mirror all over the field. He’s known as one of the best coverage cornerbacks in the NFL for good reason – he held Mike Wallace to one catch for 15 yards on five targets:

With Haden likely to follow Torrey Smith all over the field, Brown is set up to exploit the matchup against Buster Skrine on the outside or Chris Owens from the slot. Skrine gave up the 34 yard touchdown to Brian Hartline last week.

Even if Brown simply mirrors his part time stat line of four catches for 65 yards and a touchdown – fantasy owners will take that given his marginal price on most sites. Going with Brown will allow you to find cap space to squeeze Marshall and Andre Johnson in your lineup.

Projection

Jared Cook – (TE) Rams at ATL

I have to question what the coaching staff in Tennessee was thinking when they had Jared Cook on their roster, because he looked like a completely different player against Arizona. It helps when you go from little-used backup tight end to a top receiving option in a spread offense like he did when he joined St. Louis this offseason.

His position specific snap data highlights just how differently he’ll be used this year:

The big difference to take note of is the increase in snaps at split end and flanker out wide and the increase in inline snaps. One of the biggest knocks on Cook in recent years was his lack of blocking ability, something that in theory limited his playing time for the Titans. Cook is an every down player now. He was on the field for 56 of 62 (90%) of their offensive plays and already Sam Bradford ‘s favorite target.

Cook has a great matchup this week at Atlanta. The Falcons allowed Jimmy Graham to total four catches for 45 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. Cook is used similarly to Graham with his snaps out wide and in the slot. He should see a similar day if he gets another steady dose of targets. Regardless of the game script, Cook needs to be in your lineup.

Projection