FREE PREMIUM - NBA DFS DraftKings & FanDuel Playoff Primer: Friday, April 22nd
Hello Grinders. I’ll be with you for this NBA DFS playoff stretch, breaking down each slate on the weekdays while Keith will be covering the weekends. We’re going to change up the format a bit for the playoffs from our traditional Core Plays article more to a Playoff Primer article. With teams beginning to play each other over a series, we felt it would be more impactful to dive into trends, news, injuries and Game Flow Tracker data as the series progress. Coaching staffs tend to make adjustments as the series goes on, and so the goal is to see if we can identify potential trends before changes happen.
Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks (MIA Leads 2-0)
Previous Matchups
ATL 91 – MIA 115 (Game 1)
ATL 105 – MIA 115 (Game 2)
Heat Key Injuries
Questionable
Bam Adebayo
Caleb Martin
Markieff Morris
P.J. Tucker
Probable
Gabe Vincent
Hawks Key Injuries
Analysis
The Heat won Games 1 and 2 by double digits and look in control of this series. Miami used a 10-man rotation in Game 2 and despite several players being listed as questionable heading into Game 2, everyone suited up. Bam Adebayo is once again questionable but I’m going to work under the assumption that all of Adebayo, Martin, Morris and Tucker are closer to playing than not playing.
The Game Flow Tracker from Game 2 looks interesting because we see Bam Adebayo played just 24 minutes, but he picked up his fourth foul early in the 3rd quarter which is why he was taken out. Notice than when Adebayo was pulled in the 3rd, it was in favor of Caleb Martin and not backup Dewayne Dedmon. In other words, the Heat were willing to play small and match the Hawks, who went with John Collins as their starting center in Game 2.
P.J. Tucker also dealt with foul trouble and didn’t play the 4th quarter, where Gabe Vincent got extended run in his place. I did find it strange that Duncan Robinson was the odd man out in Game 2 despite the fact he made eight three-pointers in Game 1. Apparently, that didn’t matter much to Coach Spo. Overall, this feels like a team in flux and will be hard to peg down for DFS purposes outside of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. I’m not too discouraged about Adebayo’s subpar performances in Games 1 and 2 but it is worth noting he was dealing with COVID just prior to this series, so perhaps he’s still just getting up to full health.
On the Hawks side, we saw John Collins move back into the starting lineup, pushing Onyeka Okongwu to the backup center role. Okongwu did play 19 minutes but they were all behind John Collins, so you’ll definitely want to set some kind of LineupHQ rule where you don’t play them in the same lineup together.
The Hawks mostly used an eight-man rotation, with Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot on the fringe of the rotation. I did find it surprising Delon Wright pushed for 30 minutes and played the entire 2nd quarter, and it really cut into the playing time of Bogdan Bogdanovic. Bogdanovic did end up getting 28 minutes of playing time but he benefitted from DeAndre Hunter being in foul trouble. Hunter drew his fourth foul early in the 3rd quarter, which is why he was subbed out so quick to start the second half with Bogdanovic replacing him.
Trae Young did have a solid bounce back game after shooting just 1-for-12 in Game 1, but he still “only” finished with 39 DKFPs in Game 2. The Heat continue to play stellar defense and were a top-five defense in the regular season, so it’s not surprising they are having success against the Hawks’ star. Young is definitely capable of going off at any given moment, but Young has committed 16 total turnovers through the first two games and whatever defensive scheme the Heat are using is working against Young.
Milwaukee Bucks vs Chicago Bulls (Series Tied 1-1)
Previous Matchups
CHI 86 – MIL 93 (Game 1)
CHI 114 – MIL 110 (Game 2)
Bucks Key Injuries
Out
George Hill
Khris Middleton
Bulls Key Injuries
Analysis
The Bucks will be without Khris Middleton for the near future, as he’s been ruled out for Friday and expected to be re-evaluated in two weeks. Pat Connaughton is a candidate to replace him in the starting lineup.
Below is the CourtIQ data with Middleton and George Hill off the court this season. Giannis leads the team with a 35% usage rate and averages 1.67 fantasy points per minute. Jrue Holiday averages 1.19 fantasy points per minute and now becomes a solid option as well. I didn’t show the usage change chart, but in terms of usage bumps, we see Jevon Carter, Jrue Holiday and Grayson Allen all get around 3% usage increases. Overall, this news makes Giannis a priority if you can fit him. You can make a case for a tournament fade if his ownership gets out of control on this three-game slate, so roster construction and game theory will become even more interesting tonight.
On the Bulls side, we saw extremely condensed rotations in Game 2. DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine both pushed for 43+ minutes and barely left the court, while all of Nikola Vucevic, Alex Caruso and Patrick Williams pushed for 30+ minutes.
While five bench players were used in the 10-man rotation, only Javonte Green saw double-digit minutes while all of Tristan Thompson, Coby White, Derrick Jones and Ayo Dosunmu played fewer than 10 minutes. White’s playing time getting cut down to <10 minutes was the most surprising to me after he played 23 minutes in Game 1, so I’m really not sure we can trust him at this point. In fact, I’m not sure we can trust anyone other than the starters. Feel free to use White in large-field GPPs, but I really don’t know what to expect from him in Game 3.
We saw Nikola Vucevic explode in Game 1 and then DeMar DeRozan exploded in Game 2. Alex Caruso also continues to be a viable salary saver and finished with 35.5 DKFPs. With the rotation potentially being super condensed moving forward, it makes sense to want exposure to all of DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic up top, and the guys like Alex Caruso and Patrick Williams for salary relief.
Phoenix Suns vs New Orleans Pelicans (Series Tied 1-1)
Previous Matchups
NOP 99 – PHO 110 (Game 1)
NOP 125 – PHO 114 (Game 2)
Suns Key Injuries
Pelicans Key Injuries
Out
Kira Lewis
Zion Williamson
Analysis
The Pelicans pulled off a stunning upset over the Suns in Game 2, winning by 11 points while on the road. The Suns now have to face life without Devin Booker, who is expected out for several weeks due to a hamstring injury. Below is the CourtIQ data with Booker off the court this season. We see the biggest usage bumps go to Chris Paul, Cameron Payne, Jae Crowder and JaVale McGee, in that order:
It’s unclear who will start in Booker’s place. Looking at the Game Flow Tracker from Game 2, Booker got hurt during the 3rd quarter and never came back. The Suns could go a variety of ways here. They could start Landry Shamet or Cameron Johnson. They could bring Aaron Holiday into the starting lineup to keep the second unit together although this feels unlikely given Holiday hasn’t been in the playoff rotation. They could start Cameron Payne for his offense and run Payne alongside Chris Paul, although I tend to feel this is unlikely because Payne has been so good as the 6th man to help facilitate the second unit offense.
There is a tweet here by John Gambadoro, a Phoenix radio host, where he guesses Cameron Johnson starts for Booker. My personal guess is that Shamet starts, but that we do see more Cameron Payne and times where both Payne and Paul may share the floor. It’s unfortunate this game is the last one of the slate so we may not have information on the Suns’ starting lineup before lock, meaning we all may be trying to guess here. It does make for an interesting tournament spot if you want to take a stand on one of the scenarios I laid out above. Regardless of how you handle, we know that the absence of Booker is going to open up a ton of usage for Chris Paul, DeAndre Ayton and company, making them stronger options now.
On the Pelicans side, we saw Brandon Ingram erupt for 69.25 DKFPs and C.J. McCollum finish with 50 DKFPs. Jonas Valanciunas finished with just 32.25 DKFPs and was the odd man out of the trio in terms of fantasy output. It was an impressive outing from both Ingram and McCollum against this elite Suns defense. It also seems that this Pelicans offense is so condensed among their big three that on any given night, it can support stellar games from two of them.
Both Devonte Graham and Naji Marshall played fewer than 10 minutes in Game 2 and were squeezed from the rotation. Instead, it was Trey Murphy and Larry Nance each getting 20+ minutes of run. Nance got all his minutes playing backup center and his extended run was at the expense of Jonas Valanciunas, who only played 26 minutes. Again, it’s worthwhile to set a rule where you don’t play Valanciunas and Nance together as they continue to cannibalize each other’s playing time. We saw the Pelicans willing to go small in their game against the Clippers, and we saw it a bit here in Game 2 where Nance did eat into JoVal’s playing time.
Murphy continues to see more run than I expected him to see in the playoffs, and while his fantasy output hasn’t been amazing, he’s still a viable punt option if he gets minutes in the high teens / low 20s. It’s something to continue watching for, especially with Naji Marshall and Devonte Graham losing favor among the coaching staff in the second unit. It seems that Murphy has leaped them in the depth chart for the time being.