From DFS to DraftKings Sportsbook in New Jersey: Friday, September 21st

The DraftKings Sportsbook is now a very real and completely legal entity in New Jersey. As originally laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to succeed in a sports betting endeavor.

Please note that I do not profess to be good at this (as the current record now attests). Follow along at your own peril.

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Today’s Plays (Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)

Final update:

Cubs/White Sox 9o (-114) 1.14 units to win 2.14 (WIN)
Jacob deGrom 9 or more strikeouts (+170) (BS) 1 unit to win 2.7
Royals/Tigers 9o (+110) (FD) 1 unit to win 2.1
Marlins +125 (BS) 1 unit to win 2.22 (Note: Using an earned BS Free Bet for this play)
Phillies +136 (SH special promo price) 1 unit to win 2.36
Angels +175 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.75
Rockes +112 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.12

CFB
Washington State +4.5 (-110) 1.1 units to win 2.1

7:45 ET Update

I know realize I made a big mistake in not waiting until the last minute on the Phillies. I could have had a nice risk free bet, leveraging the special SH price against the current odds. What’s done is done. Let’s go Phils!

Andrew Heaney is a quality pitcher who has faced the Astros four times this year: 26 IP – 7 ER – 2 HR – 5 BB – 25 K. He can hang with Cole here. As a matter of fact, as I write this, the line is dropping slightly.

German Marquez is simply the much better pitcher in this matchup right now. Zack Greinke has a 16.1 K% over the last month. Marquez more than doubles that (36.4%).

The only college game I have interest in is the late because I apparently want to be up until 2 am. I’m kind of new again to college football this season, but I do know that USC has looked terrible. I’m not as proficient in advanced stats for football as I am baseball, but the ones I’ve seen don’t suggest USC is any better than they’ve looked. Not that Washington State has proven anything either, but anything over a FG here seems like it might have some value. All four books have the same line, so we’ll just stick with the same one.

Angels +175 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.75
Rockes +112 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.12

Washington State +4.5 (-110) 1.1 units to win 2.1

6:15 ET Update

With lineups and weather in, it’s time to get to work on Friday night.

First to mention, the Cleveland line went up to -150 before the lineup was even released for Boston and has since hovered there.

Right off the bat, we have a pretty ridiculous pitcher prop from Stars. The confirmed lineup for the Nationals has just a 19.9 K% vs RHP and we have an extremely hitter friendly umpire. However, Jacob deGrom has struck out at least nine in eight of his last nine starts and that includes contact prone teams like the Red Sox, Cubs and Braves. The man is pitching for a Cy Young and his manager is going to let him go tonight. This prop line is generous.

The early afternoon total was based on winds and so is this one to some extent. The wind is blowing out hard to left in Detroit. That’s bad news for Ian Kennedy, an extreme fly ball pitcher. Neither he, nor Francisco Liriano have been good this year. Neither offense has either, but they put a ton of runs on the board last night. The odd thing about this line is that while all four books had the total at nine, DK/SH had the over at -120, while FD had it at +110.

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Luis Castillo is a high upside pitcher, but also very erratic. Good for DFS, but also good for underdogs going against him. He’s been good recently, which almost moved me off this play, but the Cincinnati offense has just a 59 wRC+ over the last week. They did win last night, scoring just four runs though. Wei-Yin Chen has been great at home by ERA, but also by xwOBA (.266).

As much aggravation as the Phillies caused last night and they may even have a more inept defense in play tonight, I have to take advantage of a SugarHouse promo that boosts the line to +136 tonight. I like Nick Pivetta in a DFS sense, but where runs count much more than strikeouts, he kinda scares me. The Phils won’t let him get into too much trouble anyway. The hook will be quick. However, the good news is some reverse line movement in this game, which doesn’t affect this prop, so we’re getting a much better price than is currently on the market.

That’s it for the earliest games and no play on the first college football game. Be back later with further updates.

Jacob deGrom 9 or more strikeouts (+170) (BS) 1 unit to win 2.7
Royals/Tigers 9o (+110) (FD) 1 unit to win 2.1
Marlins +125 (BS) 1 unit to win 2.22 (Note: Using an earned BS Free Bet for this play)
Phillies +136 (SH special promo) 1 unit to win 2.36

1:45 ET Update

Play on the afternoon game in Chicago. All it took was reading the forecast reporting winds blasting out to center 20-30 mph. Well, that and the fact that both pitchers have ERAs well below their estimators. The Cubs haven’t been scoring much, but they do get a DH today.

Cubs/White Sox 9o (-114) 1.14 units to win 2.14

1:15 ET Update

No plays yet, but I did want to talk about the Red Sox/Indians matchup a little bit before lineups come out. Chris Sale vs Trevor Bauer is a premium matchup featuring the best two pitchers in the American League this year. However, as both are coming off recent injuries, they’re just trying to get on track for the post-season. That aspect can be ignored and almost has to be. The more interesting aspect is that the Red Sox clinched and partied last night, which means that they’ll likely be employing the hangover lineup, meaning no regulars and probably only about 10x better than the lineup the Diamondbacks put out on Wednesday night against that ding-dong we no longer talk about here. Without logging in on SugarHouse or FanDuel, I can see the Indians are between a -135 to -140 favorite. Perhaps that already accounts for a few things. This would not be the line between these two pitchers in a game played for important stakes. However, I’m still going to keep an eye on the Boston lineup to see if it offers any early opportunities.

Yesterday’s recap:

Matt Shoemaker four or more strikeouts (-110) (BS) 1.1 units to win 2.1 W +1
Reds/Marlins 8.5u (-120) (BS) 1.2 units to win 2.2 W +1
Royals/Tigers 8u (-102) (FD) 1.02 units to win 2.02 L -1.02
Phillies +130 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.3 L -1
Rhys Hoskins HR + Phillies win +900 (BS) 0.4 units to win 4 units L -0.4

CFB

Tulsa/Temple 54.5u (-110) (SH) 1.1 units to win 2.1 W +1

MLB

Day Total 2-3 -0.42
Grand Total 72-82-1 -3.5 units
Sides 38-48 -3.7 units
Totals 31-27-1 +1.25 units
Parlays 3-5 -1.12 units
Props 2-3 +0.1 units

NFL

Day Total
Grand Total 4-1 +3 units
Spread 2-0 +2 unit
Moneyline 1-0 +1 unit
Totals 1-0 +1 unit
Parlays 0-1 -1 unit

CFB

Day Total 1-0 +1 unit
Grand Total 3-4 -1.4 units
Spread 1-2 -1.2 units
Totals 2-2 -0.2 units

Matt Shoemaker did not even last three innings, but the one positive in his outing was that he did attain the four necessary strikeouts before leaving. The two MLB totals split without a sweat involved. The Phillies have 16 relievers with expanded rosters, but no infielders. I’m not sure Rhys Hoskins got the ball out of the infield. The real sweat on Thursday came down to the college football total that would have lost by 0.5 points on the last play of the game had the pass into the end zone allowed the receiver to catch it in bounds.

With a full day of baseball plus three college football games, let’s keep this portion shorter today, but I do want to talk about another FanDuel sportsbook promotion. This weekend, they’re refunding any moneyline bet on either the Jets, Giants, or Eagles that does not win, up to $100.

I did not choose the Jets last night, so my remaining choices are to attempt to maximize my profit or go the even safer route. The Giants are about as large a dog (+215) as the Eagles are a favorite (-290). There’s also another little wrinkle to consider.

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FanDuel is also offering a prop on which week the Giants will win their first game. The odds for this week (+200) are actually lower than the game odds, but increase to +300 next week against the Saints and then get much better from there. As a matter of fact, if they don’t win that game, the next three are at Carolina, vs Philadelphia and at Atlanta. Washington at home +900 in Week 8 is looking slightly interesting.

Is there an opportunity to leverage the two bets though? I think there may be, but only if you’re interested in the Giants prop bet in the first place. In other words, the Giants promo doesn’t add anything to the risk free bet, but the free bet may offer a hedging opportunity to the Giants promo. I think this is especially true if the analysis leads to the Saints in Week Four (+300) as the bet.

Unlike the Stars 100/1 Superbowl champion odds on any team, where the correct play is to wait until the last possible day and bet the favorite, I’m really not sure what the correct play here is. There’s another full day of baseball and then another Saturday of college football before that decision has to be made though.

About the Author

MTro86
Matt Trollo (MTro86)

Matt has written for ReupSports in the past where he developed his unique pitching charts. He probably watches and reads more about baseball than any normal human being would find enjoyable, accumulating an incredible wealth of mostly useless knowledge, while he patiently waits for his jedi powers to manifest. In addition to writing the Advanced Pitching Charts column for RotoGrinders, MTro86 also heads up the premium MLB News Alerts during baseball season.