From DFS to DraftKings Sportsbook in New Jersey: Friday, September 7th
The DraftKings Sportsbook is now a very real and completely legal entity in New Jersey. As originally laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to success in a sports betting endeavor.
Please note that I do not profess to be good at this (as the current record now attests). Follow along at your own peril.
Big news this week: RotoGrinders is launching Sharp Side, a new sports betting app. One of the earliest available features is the ability to track plays and there’s a big contest for Week 1 in which players can win up to $500 or a RotoGrinders Premium Subscription. Many more tools and features are to come.
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Today’s Plays (Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)
Further updates for Friday late games will come from Twitter (@FreelanceBBall).
Cubs/Nationals 9.5 Over (-110) 1.1 units to win 2.1
Tigers +130 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.3
Astros -108 (FD) 1.08 units to win 2.08
Giants/Brewers 8.5 Under (-118) (SH) -1.18 units to win 2.18
Royals +152 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.52
Angels -110 (FD) 1.1 units to win 2.1
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7:30 ET Update
As mentioned earlier, the San Francisco lineup is lacking and Holland has been better than he’s getting credit for.
Stephen Gonsalves has been about as terrible as a pitcher can be through three starts. He also walked a ton of batters in the minors this year. I’m trying to find the angle to come at this game and then I see that FanDuel has the Royals above $30 higher than DK and SH. Though just after I placed it and attempted to catch a middle on SH with Twins -143, the line jumped, I’m fine holding the Royals for now, but could look to cash out if The Twins drop below -150 again.
Line movement towards the Angels despite getting less of the action. Carlos Rodon is running about two runs below his estimators and Felix Pena hasn’t been terrible. I was originally considering the Under here, but I’m going to side with the Angels instead.
That’s the last update here for tonight. Any further plays will be on Twitter (@FreelanceBBall).
Giants/Brewers 8.5 Under (-118) (SH) -1.18 units to win 2.18
Royals +152 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.52
Angels -110 (FD) 1.1 units to win 2.1
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6:30 ET Update
There’s been slight reverse line movement on Washington, but as I mentioned before, I don’t know that I trust them to hold a lead, though I do think they can score. There’s also the threat of weather activity in the game. However, with a play on the over, an early entrance for the Washington bullpen is not a detractor.
I mentioned the hard reverse line movement in Detroit before and the underlying metrics do support that the road team could be over-valued here. The bullpen matchup actually favors the Tigers. FanDuel actually comes in with the most favorable line in this one.
I think both offenses can score a few runs in Boston. The total at 8.5 seems about right though. I do like the Houston lineup a bit more against David Price than the Boston one against Gerrit Cole. Line is moving in favor of Houston with bets split. FanDuel again has the best line.
I mentioned some reason to believe Matz can limit the Phillies tonight. The number is down to seven though and I don’t feel great about that once pens get involved. I would consider the Mets here, but thought they’d be bigger dogs than +138 (also on FanDuel). No play.
I will be back in about an hour for potential 8pm plays.
Cubs/Nationals 9.5 Over (-110) 1.1 units to win 2.1
Tigers +130 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.3
Astros -108 (FD) 1.08 units to win 2.08
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5:15 ET Update
Still haven’t officially played anything yet, but further thoughts about the second slate of games at 8pm.
Heath Fillmyer and Stephen Gonsalves is not the matchup many will be watching tonight, but while the home pitcher has been a flat out disaster, the road pitcher at least keeps the ball on the ground vs LHP. The Twins may be over-valued tonight. I’m just not seeing the large advantage this lineup has.
It’s pitching weather in Chicago for the White Sox and Angels. Massive line move in favor of the Angels here though despite the action being about evenly split.
Derek Holland has a .270 xwOBA over the last month. The Giants have a nearly empty lineup at this point, but perhaps the total is a bit high on this one.
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4:30 ET Update
I’m just going to drop a few thoughts here about the first set of games kicking off at 7pm. No official plays yet. I think the Nationals can score some runs off Lester, but don’t trust the pitching on Washington’s side at all. The total does seem a bit higher than I was expecting though.
I think the environment sets two pretty good offenses up perhaps a bit better than oddsmaker’s suggest in Boston. There’s been a line move towards Houston in that game too.
Nobody in the Philadelphia lineup is above a 110 wRC+ against LHP this year and only one batter is above a .180 ISO. Steven Matz has been pitching pretty well and the forecast slightly favors pitchers.
The Detroit lineup looks a bit better than I thought because Austin Gomber has a much higher xwOBA than actual wOBA. There’s also been a significant line drop in that game with the large majority of plays going towards the Cardinals.
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Yesterday’s recap:
Falcons/Eagles 44.5 Under (-112) (SH) 1.11 units to win 2.11 W +1
Cubs Even (SH) 1 unit to win 2 W +1
Braves +138 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.38 W +1.38
MLB
Day Total 2-0 +2.38
Grand Total 49-53-1 -1.37 units
Sides 26-29 +1.31 units
Totals 24-21-1 +0.71 units
Parlays 1-4 -3.39 units
NFL
Day Total 1-0 +1 unit
Grand Total 1-0 +1 unit
Spread
Totals 1-0 +1 unit
CFB
Day Total
Grand Total 1-2 -1.2 units
Spread 0-2 -2.2 units
Totals 1-0 +1 unit
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While there may have been a scenario where the Falcons scored, but missed their second extra-point of the game to send it into overtime that could have given the under a sweat, it was a fairly stress free wager. On the diamond, both teams won in extras, the Braves almost an incredibly frustrating loss after blowing a 4-0 lead and then still one strike away from ending the game in the regulation (6-5, none on, two outs, 0-2 to Paul Goldschmidt), when Jesse Biddle hung a curveball and Goldy hung it over the left field wall. It was certainly a worst pitcher of the year candidate.
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While other things were planned for this space this week, there are have been several large spots betting developments in preparation for the first week of the NFL season that players should know about.
Yesterday, RotoGrinders launched their own sports betting app, Sharp Side, with a free contest that award $500 to first place. Details can be found above.
Secondly, don’t forget that Sugar House is still offering several bonuses, but the 250MATCH bonus is like free money to new players with a one- time play through requirement. They’ve also just announced the Big Game Getaway Sweepstakes. Don’t forget to use promo code: GRINDERS when signing up.
Perhaps the biggest news this weekend though, is the launch of FanDuel’s online sportsbook. Their first deposit bonus is as good as it gets too. They are doubling your money up to $100. In other words, you deposit $100 and immediately have $200 total to play with. Requirements for withdrawal are wagering the entire amount of your deposit plus the bonus (in this example: $200) one time, according to their terms and conditions.
A quick review of the website is very favorable. They might have the best layout of the three available online sports books in New Jersey so far because they’re the only one that shows your bet slips right on the main page with alongside game wagering options. Both of the other sites force players to navigate away to a separate page to view bets and personal results.
Game options are concise, well laid out and easily navigable as well. Most importantly though, betting lines are not only competitive, but very player friendly. I’ve seen several cases already where they have both the highest dog and lowest favorite on MLB moneylines. This is not always the case for every game, but even in those cases it can still be a good thing. Consider, for example, they currently have the Chicago Cubs -132, while Sugar Hosue has their opponents, the Washington Nationals +123. With all three books now, players can shop competitive lines for the most favorable one depending on the side they choose.
Going into week one of the NFL season and down the MLB stretch, things have become very exciting for sports bettors in the state of New Jersey.