From DFS to DraftKings Sportsbook in New Jersey: Wednesday, September 19th
The DraftKings Sportsbook is now a very real and completely legal entity in New Jersey. As originally laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to succeed in a sports betting endeavor.
Please note that I do not profess to be good at this (as the current record now attests). Follow along at your own peril.
Last week, RotoGrinders launched Sharp Side, a new sports betting app. One of the earliest available features is the ability to track plays. Many more tools and features are to come.
Today’s Plays (Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)
Final update for tonight.
Cardinals -110 (FD) 1.1 units to win 2.08
Cubs -108 (FD) 1.08 units to win 2.08
Arizona 3.5 Under (-1.08) (SH) 1.08 units to win 2.08
Daily Odds Boost Parlay: Yankees, Pirates, Indians +200 (BS) 1 unit to win 3
Reds +164 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.64
Reds/Brewers 8.5 over (-114) 1.14 units to win 2.14
Odds Boost: Cole Hamels at least 7 Ks (+160) (BS) 1 unit to win 2.6
Mariners +178 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.78
Parlay: Padres and Dodgers +127 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.27
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Ready to look at the later games now.
Two games in a row here, we were on the dog in Houston, splitting for a decent profit. There seems to be some reverse line movement in this one as well. Why not? The Mariners are going with a bullpen game, but that’s not as bad as it sounds. Keuchel is a great contact manager, but he’s not unhittable. Nelson Cruz has five HRs against him in 50 PAs. The Seattle bullpen as a whole has been pitching well over the last month (3.44 FIP). It’s a nice price and maybe too high.
I thought I liked the Padres against a Giants’ lineup that’s playing two backup catchers, but this line has shot up above -160, which, nobody wants to lose that much with the Padres. However, I also think the Dodgers are ready to put the Rockies away. Walker Buehler is becoming the pitcher he was meant to be. His strikeouts and swinging strikes are up over the last month. Let’s hook these two teams together. I considered adding the Cubs as a third team, but already have enough riding on Hamels tonight. DraftKings and Sugarhouse give us the best odds on this one.
Additionally, Buehler has at least eight strikeouts in five of his last eight starts. Ironically, two of the starts below eight were against the Rockies. He has a 31.9 K% (13.2 SwStr) over the last month. The Rockies have a 23.5 K% vs RHP. This specific Colorado lineup has a league average 22.3 K% vs RHP this year. Buehler has averaged 24 batters per start over this span, but take out a start in Texas, he’s only been below 24 batters one other time. And that basically means his only other games with fewer than eight strikeouts were against the Rockies. So if he faces 24-27 batters, he needs a strikeout rate around 30-32% to strike out at least eight tonight. I actually went into this thinking that even money for at least eight strikeouts was going to be a good bet, but even with the “Odds Boost” on Stars, I’m struggling to find this more than break even. I’m going to pass on this prop tonight.
Mariners +178 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.78
Parlay: Padres and Dodgers +127 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.27
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5:40 PM ET Update
With one loss already to make up for (mid-week early day games are bad) and already some action against the ridiculous lineup the Diamondbacks put out, it’s time to get to work on the rest of the slate.
Everything about Luis Severino peripherals suggest he’s ready to ready to rebound and although he’s not really pitching deep into games (and he doesn’t have to with this bullpen that gets Aroldis Chapman back tonight), he’s really only had one poor start over the last month. I like the Yankees as a favorite here with such a deep lineup. I don’t want to pay this price, but I also like Cleveland and Pittsburgh enough to jump on the Daily Odds Boost parlay at BetStars.
Matt Harvey has been good of late, but is in a dangerous spot and still struggles against LHBs. Gio Gonzalez hasn’t been any better in Milwaukee and while the Cincinnati bats have gone cold (61 wRC+ last seven days), there’s an aspect in play tonight that favors the Reds. There’s an extremely hitter friendly home plate umpire. This should work against a pitcher with control issues like Gio. Some reverse line movement tends to agree. I also like this game to go over the total. We find our best lines on FanDuel.
I finally got the Cole Hamels strikeout prop to register as well. Planning on losing a whole bunch of money with him tonight.
There will be at least one more update, probably after 7pm.
Daily Odds Boost Parlay: Yankees, Pirates, Indians +200 (BS) 1 unit to win 3
Reds +164 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.64
Reds/Brewers 8.5 over (-114) 1.14 units to win 2.14
Odds Boost: Cole Hamels at least 7 Ks (+160) (BS) 1 unit to win 2.6
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4:45 PM ET Update
Quick note to say that I put in a play on the Cubs (-108) right away when the Diamondbacks released their lineup. Log-in was too slow to let me catch it at +102. Very frustrating, but still a great price. Arizona is not playing anyone tonight. Also now hoping the Cole Hamels strikeout prop re-appears on Stars. It’s been flickering in and out throughout the day.
Also just jumped on Arizona under total.
Cubs -108 (FD) 1.08 units to win 2.08
Arizona 3.5 Under (-1.08) (SH) 1.08 units to win 2.08
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We do have early baseball today, so there may be some earlier afternoon updates and we’re going to jump right in with a game at noon that seems to have a pitching mismatch between Jack Flaherty (30.1 K%, 3.47 SIERA) and Touki Toussaint, who has walked nine of his last 33 batters. Both offenses are a bit over-valued and below a 100 wRC+ vs RHP. The St Louis bullpen is a source of apprehension (5.02 FIP, 6.2 K-BB% last 30 days), but the Braves aren’t much better (4.24 FIP, 4.9 K-BB%). The Cardinals should be a slightly larger favorite I believe and it doesn’t hurt that one team has won three and a row, while the other has lost their last four.
Cardinals -110 (FD) 1.1 units to win 2.08
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Yesterday’s recap:
Red Sox/Yankees Over 2.5 HRs (+200) (BS) 1 unit to win 3 L – 1
Stephen Strasburg 8 or more Ks (+150) (BS) 1 unit to win 2.5 W +1.5
Mariners +150 (BS) 1 unit to win 2.5 L – 1
Diamondbacks -108 (SH) 1.08 units to win 2.08 L -1.08
MLB
Day Total 1-3 -1.58
Grand Total 67-73-1 -1.73 units
Sides 37-44 -1.29 units
Totals 30-24-1 +3.45 units
Parlays 1-5 -4.39 units
Props 1-1 +0.5 units
NFL
Day Total
Grand Total 4-1 +3 units
Spread 2-0 +2 unit
Moneyline 1-0 +1 unit
Totals 1-0 +1 unit
Parlays 0-1 -1 unit
CFB
Day Total
Grand Total 2-4 -2.4 units
Spread 1-2 -1.2 units
Totals 1-2 -1.2 units
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For some reason, the prop on the Red Sox and Yankees did not go through. I probably failed to confirm, but it was posted here and will still count as a loss towards the overall record. The Strasburg strikeout prop cashed by the fourth inning. Our two sides were drubbed by a combined total of 16-1.
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Wednesday and Thursday is when NFL DFS content really starts to ramp up, so we’ll continue our romp through the RG content schedule to highlight content and tools that can be both daily fantasy and sports betting useful with our first show. Well, not our show, but the first show mentioned in this feature rather than an article or statistics.
Aggression to the Mean is a stat crunch show, hosted by JoshADHD, Kevin Cole, and Josh Hermsmeyer. No matter what your goal, stats are important and if you’ve been a RotoGrinders member for any amount of time, you know that the content on this site always goes beyond the basic, mostly meaningless stats. This is good stuff, even if I’m not all the way through the show as I write this.
Let’s also go back to yesterday and give some credit to the tireless work being done on the NFL Grind Down by Allen Lem this year. This piece seems to improve every year. It is admittedly much more DFS than sports betting useful, but it’s still the first major piece of content out each week that really explains what teams might be trying to do this weekend and where many of the touches might go.
Back to baseball, I think I let line movement completely dictate yesterday’s actions because I wasn’t truly comfortable with anything on the board. That is, aside from the props, which I may have spent too much time on, partially because I couldn’t figure out why they kept disappearing on Stars. Between that and FanDuel going down for almost an hour around 7pm, perhaps it was an omen that I just should have taken the night off.
Is tapping out on a 15 game slate even an option? It certainly makes for a crappy read. For a while, I considered staying with just the two props. Maybe prop prep took too much away from whole game prep. Or maybe there just weren’t any plays to be made. I guess it’s possible. New lessons are learned every day in this endeavor and it’s encouraging that I’ve gone this far without making a total mess of things.
I do think there’s an edge to be had in individual pitcher strikeout totals though and would love to see more of them. I’m still awaiting a response as to why they keep flickering in and out of existence throughout the day.
Today’s FanDuel Daily Odds Boost is on the Yankees winning by at least three runs (+300), which is a wager of interest with David Price going up against Luis Severino.
Stars is offering two three team parlays (Yankees, Pirates, Indians +200 – Red Sox, Brewers, Phillies +750), along with the Spin & Bet option on both the Mets/Phillies and Yankees/Red Sox. It looks like we have some pitcher strikeouts and HR totals Odds Boost props on at least these two games as well. The Cubs (Cole Hamels) and Diamondbacks (Robbie Ray) seem to have those props as well, ironically with two pitchers who have long been my personal DFS nemesis. I’ve never been able to accurately project what either will do from game to game and it’s unlikely I’ll be able to start now. That doesn’t mean I won’t look.