Home Run Derby Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Coors Field 2021

by Matt Schmitto (schmitto) Last Updated 2021-07-12 16:06:12

MLB teams are on a break but there’s still plenty of baseball to bet thanks to the All-Star Game. It all begins with the 2021 Home Run Derby Monday night (8 p.m. ET, ESPN) in Denver, Co..

Eight of the league’s biggest sluggers will battle it out in the hitter’s ballpark that is Coors Field. The bracket is out, and so are Home Run Derby odds, the latter of which will undoubtedly be on the move as bets pour in across online sportsbooks.

Home Run Derby odds

Most people betting will do so by making picks on the outright winner of the Home Run Derby. Here are what the odds look like, as of early Monday morning, at BetMGM.

Of course, it would be silly to start picking winners without looking at the AL vs. NL bracket, starting with the 1-seed vs. 2-seed matchup.

2021 Home Run Derby Bracket

1. Shohei Ohtani (Angels) vs. 8. Juan Soto (Nationals)
4. Salvador Perez, (Royals) vs. 5. Pete Alonso (Mets)
3. Matt Olson (Athletics) vs. 6. Trey Mancini (Orioles)
2. Joey Gallo (Rangers) vs. 7. Trevor Story (Rockies)

Ohtani is on pace to lead the league in home runs. He’s racked up 33 at the All-Star break, giving him five more than Vladimir Guerrero and Fernando Tatis, neither of whom are participating in festivities at Coors Field Monday night. It’s no secret that Ohtani can do more than swing the bat. The 27-year-old Japanese baseball phenom pitches, too. A dual-threat if you will, his prowess at both the plate and mound have helped make him the odds-on favorite (-300) to win AL MVP.

Don’t presume Ohtani’s first-round matchup is a gimme (also don’t forget it’s British Open Week). He’s paired up with Juan Soto, who has only 11 home runs this season, but possesses plenty of power to compete in this glorified batting practice. In fact, based on their odds to win, the betting market believes Soto could be a dangerous first-round test for the current home run leader. Ohtani is the favorite at +250, sure, but Soto at +500 is tied for the third-shortest odds of the eight contestants.

Hometown Story at Coors Field?

Rockies shortstop Trevor Story (+850) doesn’t have to travel far, as he looks to deliver a winning performance for bettors in Colorado.

Like Soto, Story only has 11 home runs on the year, but he could have some pep in his step playing at his home ballpark. The Rockies are 40-51 on the year, so Story in the Home Run Derby is their only shot at any type of title. You can bet that the Mile High faithful will be cheering their butts off for him.

Unfortunately it’s the Texas Rangers’ Joey Gallo (+450) with whom he’ll face off. Gallo leads AL participants with 23 dingers, one more than Matt Olson of the A’s.

Gallo and Olsen have both been impressive at the plate, especially during a season full of sticky situations on the mound. Olsen’s first-round competitor, Trey Mancini, only has 16, but oddly enough might actually more impressive.

So, you think Trevor winning the Home Run Derby would be a feel-good story? He’s got nothing on Trey, who missed last season because he was undergoing chemotherapy after being diagnosed with stage 3 colon cancer.

Not only is Mancini is a cancer survivor, but he also enters the 2021 All-Star break with a freshly hot bat. Down two runs with two outs in the bottom of the 9th, Mancini hit a two-run homer to send the Orioles into extra innings with the White Sox on Sunday.

Then, finally, there’s Salvador Perez and the defending champ, Pete Alonso.

Alonso is getting some respect with +500 odds after taking the derby crown in 2019, becoming only the second rookie to win the contest. Known as “Polar Bear” to his teammates, the Mets first-baseman is probably taking the derby more seriously than any of the other seven competitors. He has already talked about strategy to defend his title.

“It’s a lot of swings,” he said on Sunday, referring to his strategy. “I want to] conserve energy and be able to maximize my time.”

Alonso is confident in his title defense, saying “we’re going to take it home again.”

2021 Home Run Derby Picks & Predictions

Fade Ohtani: These events are rather random to predict, so I hate betting on the favorites. They often receive the bulk of public action, leaving little value for when it comes to their price tag. Ohtani is a freak, to be sure, but I can’t justify picking him at his short odds.

2021 HR Derby Pick: Instead, I really like going against the grain by picking his first-round opponent, Juan Soto. Soto’s odds are a little short at BetMGM, but we can actually get him at +800 by betting at William Hill Sportsbook. Head-to-head, Soto is +175 to advance past Ohtani, which isn’t much different from the other three first-round underdogs. If he can knock off the favorite, we’ll be in great shape for a nice payout and can start hedging in subsequent rounds.

Value Picks: I don’t hate the narratives behind longshots like Trevor Story and Trey Mancini. If you’re betting in Colorado, there are sure to be some nice boosts for Story across the state’s sportsbooks. As for Mancini, you’ll find his odds boosted to +1400 at William Hill.

Imag Credit: Imagn