Listen Up - Week 1
Listen Up! is a weekly, FanDuel look at some of JMToWin’s favorite NFL DFS plays. Starting in Week 2, Listen Up! will arrive on Monday morning, in order to help you get an early start on the week ahead. Week 1’s edition provides a glimpse of what you can expect in the future.
Listen up:
Sometimes, the most obvious thing to do is the right thing to do. Here, I’ll give you an example of exactly what I mean:
The day was Thursday, September 10. Ahhh, it feels like just yesterday! (Oh, wait. It was just yesterday. Thursday, September 10…2015.) Early hints of fall were in the air (or so I assume; I’m not really certain, because I’m writing this from Thailand, and it doesn’t feel or smell like fall at all), and the Patriots and Steelers had decided to join together in order to launch the greatest three months of the year: the NFL regular season. There were many memorable moments on the night, from talk of Patriots cheating scandals to the Steelers’ headsets going out (hmmmm) to the end-of-game chant of “Where is Roger?” (How pleasant and classy of my fellow New England Patriots fans to be so concerned.)
The moment that stood out to me the most, however, took place on the field, in the second quarter.
Ever heard of Rob Gronkowski? See, he’s this tight end who plays for the Patriots. And he’s really, really good.
Throughout the week, a few Steelers players had talked to the media about what it takes to stop this Rob Gronkowski fellow. Turns out, all you have to do is get hands on him at the line of scrimmage and disrupt his timing.
Great plan!
And then, this happened:
That guy who is circled? That’s Rob Gronkowski.
The arrow? That’s where a defensive player probably should be.
I wasn’t the only one who spotted this. Tom Brady spotted this as well. He called for the center to snap the ball right away, and he popped up and immediately threw the ball to “Gronk.”
What happened next? No surprise here. With no one covering Gronkowski, he caught the ball quite easily.
Wasn’t there something said about hitting him at the line of scrimmage? Disrupting his timing? Wasn’t that the plan?
Well. Maybe they should have stuck to that plan. Because, you see, this Rob Gronkowski guy? Yeah – you don’t want to let him catch the ball and get a head of steam. If you do, this will happen:
Then this:
Then…
Wait, what happens after that?
Oh yeah, I remember.
This:
That’s called “Gronking.” That’s something a defense does not want to see when they play the Patriots.
If you’re a Steelers fan, I apologize for poking my finger into this wound when it is still so fresh (trust me: with Bradley Fletcher being allowed on the field for the Patriots, I’m sure I’ll have my fair share of opportunities to pick on the Pats this year as well), but I want to use this article each week to draw a comparison between a play from the previous weekend and the way we should be approaching daily fantasy sports (“DFS”). This week, it just so happens that the only game to choose from is that Thursday night affair. And, come on, your Steelers defense did make this one quite easy on me.
What’s the point of all this?
I’ll explain it like this:
My wife is not a football fan. I mean, she’s not anti-football. She grew up in a house with a dad and two brothers who love the sport; she’s been around me and my dad for over five years now: OU games at her family’s house on Saturdays, and Patriots games (and…every other NFL game) at our house on Sundays. But she’s not a technician or anything; she doesn’t exactly understand the finer points of the game.
I showed her that first screenshot and told her the guy at the top of the screen was Gronkowski. She said, “Wait. Why is no one near him? Shouldn’t someone be covering him?”
Um. Exactly.
It’s obvious to my wife that someone should have been covering Gronk.
It was obvious to Brady that someone should have been covering Gronk.
It’s obvious to us, as fans, and once they realized their mistake, it was obvious to the Steelers.
There are two ways we could go here. On the one hand, we could look at the Steelers and say, “Guys, if it was so obvious, why did you not pay attention enough and get someone on him?” On the other hand, we could say, “It was obvious to Brady that he should throw to an uncovered Gronk; look what happened when he did the obvious thing.”
You see, each week in NFL DFS, there are “obvious plays.” And each week, a huge chunk of the field in any tournament or cash game will talk themselves off of these “obvious plays.”
Now, it’s true: in tournaments, there is an element of “game theory” that comes into play, as you will usually need a few low-owned players in order to win a large-field tournament (in other words: you will usually need to move away from some of the more “obvious” plays). In cash games, however – where you typically need to beat only one person, or need to finish in the top half of the field in order to double your money – there is rarely a need to move too far away from the “obvious” plays.
When you get tempted to move away from the “obvious” plays in cash games, think about what happened to the Steelers on that play when they failed to do the obvious thing…and think about what happened to the Patriots when Brady did the obvious thing.
Each week, we’ll be looking at picks in this article, and each week, the purpose of these picks may be a bit different from previous weeks. For this particular week, I’m going to be looking at the guys I feel are “most obvious” – the guys, that is to say, who should occupy a prominent portion of your attention as you look to build the best cash game lineup(s) you can build.
As always: we are looking for a high “floor/ceiling” combo. And, as always, we are focusing our cash game efforts on the players who provide the highest “floor/ceiling” combo on a points-per-dollar basis!
Here are the “Rob Gronkowski is wide open, I’ll throw it to him” plays of Week 1:
QUARTERBACK
Aaron Rodgers at Bears: In a purely points-per-dollar sense, Rodgers at $9700 is not the “best play of the week.” Because quarterback is the position at which you can capture the most safety (as well as the highest score), however, “paying up” for the safest QB available is rarely a bad idea in cash games. Rodgers is easily one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, in one of the best offenses…and he is playing a Bears defense that projects to be an absolute mess. Rodgers is not the play that is likeliest to win you a tournament, but he absolutely is the play likeliest to provide you with an extremely high floor and extremely safe production at the most valuable position.
Sam Bradford at Falcons: If you are wanting to go cheaper at quarterback, old friend Sam Bradford is the guy likeliest to provide you with a high floor, along with a high ceiling. At $7500, Bradford is the 17th-highest-priced QB on FanDuel this weekend (behind guys like Cam Newton with no receivers, Joe Flacco with no receivers, and Jay Cutler and Colin Kaepernick with no fear of disappointing you). Given the pace at which this Eagles offense plays, the creativity with which Chip Kelly schemes receivers open, and the state of the Falcons defense, I will be very surprised if Bradford does not finish the weekend as one of the top-5 QB plays. At his price, this makes him an absolute steal, and it makes him one of the most obvious plays.
RUNNING BACK
Eddie Lacy at Bears: In tournaments, you never really want to tie your quarterback and running back together on the same roster, as one guy scoring fantasy points usually means the other guy is not scoring fantasy points. On a team such as the Packers, however, using both Rodgers and Lacy would not be a bad thing at all in cash games, as each guy can easily put up an elite fantasy game in the same week. Even if you do not roster Rodgers, Lacy is one of the top plays on the weekend at any position, as he is already one of the most talented backs in the league, and he is now expected to take on an even bigger role with Jordy Nelson out. It helps that he is facing one of the worst run defenses in the league. It helps even more that at $8500 he is the seventh-highest-priced RB this weekend. Taking the potential number one running back of the weekend at the seventh-highest price? That’s pretty obvious!
Doug Martin v Titans: Because player pricing was set before the “Doug Martin hype train” stopped in the preseason for a full refueling, he is sitting at $6900 on FanDuel this week. The Buccaneers are likely to be leading this game in the second half (hint: that means extra opportunities for run plays!), and because the Titans are just pretty plain awful on defense, any running back against them who is likely to get 20+ touches is automatically a strong play. It can only help, then, that Martin plays on a team that features the downfield talents of Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson (which should free up some running room), and that Martin himself has actually looked very good during the preseason. There will not be many opportunities this season to grab a 20-carry running back at this price. It’s pretty obvious that you should take advantage of this opportunity while you can.
Chris Ivory v Browns: Similar to Doug Martin, Ivory is expected to get at least 20 touches. Similar to Martin, Ivory is playing what is expected to be an atrocious run defense. Similar to Martin, Ivory’s team is expected to have a second-half lead. Ivory is almost always a strong performer on a per-carry basis, and the big issue throughout his career has been that he has never really gotten enough carries. In Week 1, at $6400, with what should be “enough carries,” he is a very obvious, and very strong bet for great point-per-dollar production.
WIDE RECEIVER
Julio Jones v Eagles, and Davante Adams at Bears: Everywhere you look (certainly if that “everywhere” includes my articles this week on RotoGrinders, my tweets this week on my Twitter account (JMToWin – duh), or anywhere else I have shown my face or thoughts this week), you will hear these two guys being talked about. The reasons are simple: as I have said many times this week already, the Eagles-Falcons game may very well feature more total plays than any game we will see all year, and Julio will easily eclipse double-digit targets against a bad secondary, making him worth his $9000 price tag; as for Davante, his price was set before the Jordy Nelson injury, and he is now the number two option in the league’s most proficient passing attack, against a bad defense, at $5500. In my mind, your cash game lineups should start with these two guys – no questions asked.
Brandin Cooks at Cardinals: Cooks is now the featured weapon in a Drew Brees offense. That alone makes him a potential top-10 play every weekend. Add the fact that he’s immensely talented, and his upside grows even more. Add the fact that he is priced at $7400, with 18 guys more expensive than him, and he becomes one of the most obvious plays of the weekend.
Nelson Agholor at Falcons: There are other wide receivers in this Eagles-Falcons game. These “other wide receivers” include the guys on the Eagles – you know, the guys our good buddy Sam Bradford will be throwing to. While Jordan Matthews is certainly a viable play as well, I wanted to bring up Agholor in particular because his price tag of $5500 – in this offense, in this game – absolutely screams “obvious!” The pace at which this offense plays means that it can support a whole lot of fantasy options, and the pace at which the Falcons play (sixth-fasted pace in the NFL last year) means that it will be even easier for the fantasy goodness to be spread around in this contest. Agholor will get his – and at $5500, this is something you have to love.
TIGHT ENDS
Greg Olsen at Jaguars: There’s this team called the Panthers. They’re starting Philly Brown and Tedd Ginn Jr. at wide receiver. They also have this tight end named Greg Olsen whom their quarterback already loved throwing to before, and whom he will be even more excited to throw to now. He’s priced like a cheap wide receiver at $5900, but he could easily push for double-digit targets, including all the red zone looks. Right, I know, it’s obvious. But that’s exactly what I’m here to help you realize.
Who else?
Look, I set the rules here. This is my article. And I say: if we’re talking “obvious” plays at tight end – if we’re talking “safe guys for cash games who provide a high floor/ceiling combo” (and that’s what we are talking about!) – then I’m not mentioning anyone besides Olsen. There are a lot of great tournament options at tight end, but for cash games, you really do not need to look any further than that game down in Jacksonville.
What do you think, my friends? What “obvious” plays did I obviously miss? Let me know on Twitter at JMToWin who you’re liking, or let me know in the comments section.
And remember: just because it’s “obvious” doesn’t mean it’s wrong. In fact, in cash games, the simple truth is this: If it’s “obvious,” it’s probably very right.