MLB Daily Grind Down April 29th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit.
While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
There are only 12 games on the schedule for today and there seem to be a bunch of easy choices so beware of overlay in your GPPs. Ryan Braun gets my nod as the player of the day. All stars align for him tonight. He is producing well over the last 7. The splits are in his favor and he has great BvPs for today. It is time to start a new week and hopefully a profitable one.
Houston at NY Yankees
| Houston | NY Yankees | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankee Stadium | 7:05 PM | ||||||
| Lucas Harrell – (2-2), 4.08 ERA, 6.38 K/9, 1.57 WHIP | Andy Pettitte – (3-1), 2.22 ERA, 7.05 K/9, 1.13 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (7-9 H/AB) 0.778 BA-A, 0.11 K%, 1.889 OPS-A | PvB | (18-57 H/AB) 0.316 BA-A, 0.32 K%, 1.088 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-0), 1.59 ERA, 1 HRA, 7.9 K/9, 1.235 WHIP | HOME | (1-0), 1.13 ERA, 0 HRA, 3.4 K/9, 1.125 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
HOU BvP  | HOU vs L | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7.5
- Favored NYY -250
Pitchers
- Home Andy Pettitte had 10 Ks in his last start and he draws the Astros who have 248 Ks on the season. He has been a great pitcher at home throughout his career. HOU is batting .259 on the road, .262 vs. left-handers, and .243 over the last 7 days. Target
- Away Lucas Harell ERA is a bit deceptive. He has given up 2 or fewer ER in 4 of his 5 starts on the year and has decent K numbers. He runs into a NYY team that is batting .245 at home, .282 versus right-handers, and .226 over the last 7 days. In 9 AB versus the young pitcher, the Yankees have 7 hits. The -250 is too high of a number to ignore but keep in mind as a sneaky GPP play later on down the road. Avoid
Batters
- Home Robinson Cano ’s performance enhancing drugs are really working for him as he has produced 24.25 FP over the last week. The splits are in his favor today. Travis Hafner gains those same splits and is still batting over .300 on the year. The low OU means that Vegas likes Harell to pitch some what decently so I would not over do it.
- Away Carlos Pena has a monster stat line vs. Pettitte. He is 14-43 with 6 HRs. Much of that data was comprised a long time ago, though, and he only 4.5 FP over the last week. Jose Altuve makes a solid play today because he has hit left-handers very well on the season.
Minnesota at Detroit
| Minnesota | Detroit | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comerica Park | 7:05 PM | ||||||
| Mike Pelfrey – (2-2), 7.94 ERA, 3.18 K/9, 2 WHIP | Max Scherzer – (2-0), 4.13 ERA, 13.5 K/9, 1.25 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (36-89 H/AB) 0.404 BA-A, 0.07 K%, 1.09 OPS-A | PvB | (25-86 H/AB) 0.291 BA-A, 0.29 K%, 0.907 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-1), 27 ERA, 0 HRA, 4.5 K/9, 4 WHIP | HOME | (2-0), 8.1 ERA, 1 HRA, 11.7 K/9, 1.7 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| MIN BvP | MIN vs R | DET BvP | DET vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.5
- Favored DET -230
Pitchers
- Home Max Scherzer ran into a little bit of trouble versus KAN in his last start. I would not worry about that performance too much because he always has difficulty with them. Outside of that outing, He has been real strong on the year and has an elite K/9. He draws a MIN team batting .225 on the road, .235 versus right-handers, and .246 over the last 7 days. They have hit him well in the past with a .291 BAA as a team versus him so it might not be the best day to pay for him but he has GPP winning stuff and is a huge favorite today. Target
- Away Mike Pelfrey is not pitching well enough to consider taking even if he had a good matchup. He has only 6 Ks on the year and has given up 15 ER. He faces off versus a DET team that is batting .328 at home, .275 versus right-handers, and .280 over the last 7 days. They have a .404 BAA versus him as a team. Avoid
Batters
- Home Just about everyone on DET has good numbers versus Pelfrey and he has been struggling so everyone is in play. Omar Infante ‘s numbers are the most impressive. He is 15-30 vs. him and he has been hot producing 32.75 FP over the last week. Prince fielder is 5-14 with an HR versus him also but is only 2-16 in the last 7 days..
- Away Josh Willingham has been the only Twin producing. He draws an Okay set of BvPs today. Oswaldo Arcia is doing well for the Twins and is a cheap options but I am not sure I would use him today. Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are a combined 13-30 with 4 HRs versus Max. They both get the lefty/righty split today.
NY Mets at Miami
| NY Mets | Miami | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins Park | 7:10 PM | ||||||
| Matt Harvey – (4-0), 1.54 ERA, 10.03 K/9, 0.69 WHIP | Jose Fernandez – (0-2), 4.5 ERA, 8.55 K/9, 1.25 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (2-7 H/AB) 0.286 BA-A, 0 K%, 0.571 OPS-A | PvB | (3-17 H/AB) 0.176 BA-A, 0.47 K%, 0.471 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (2-0), 1.2 ERA, 1 HRA, 9 K/9, 0.6 WHIP | HOME | (0-0), 0 ERA, 0 HRA, 7.5 K/9, 0.667 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| NYM BvP | NYM vs R | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7
- Favored NYM -150
Pitchers
- Home Jose Fernandez first start of the season was against the NYM and he baffled them that day going 5 IP with 1 ER and 8 Ks. He has not looked the same since. He has a serviceable 1.25 WHIP and K/9 but seems to be limited to about 80 pitches a start. He has limited upside and is the huge dog today vs. a NYM team batting .277 on the road, .241 versus right-handers, but only .174 over the last 7 days. The OU is a low 7 so he should pitch well. He could make a sneaky GPP play if you fade Harvey but only on a multiple pitcher site.
- Away Matt Harvey had his worst outing of the year the last time he took the mound. He went 6 IP giving up 3 ER with 7 Ks. We often talk about a guys upside or his ceiling. As you can see by that outing, “Matt Harvey(player-profile)”:/players/Matt_Harvey-13517’s floor is pretty high also. He should have a field day versus a MIA team batting only .190 at home, .218 versus right-handers, and .255 over the last 7 days. Target
Batters
- Home Giancario Stanton has turned it on over the past 7 days going 8/22 with 3 HR and 32.5 FP. If you chose to fade Harvey then he could make a nice play in a GPP because if Harvey goes bust then he will probably be the one who is busting him.
- Away Over the last 7 days, the NYM have scored only 68 fp combined. Justin Upton has scored around 30 by himself. Jose Fernandez had it working against them last time and they seem out of rhythm. The low OU is enough to convince me to look elsewhere.
Washington at Atlanta
| Washington | Atlanta | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turner Field | 7:10 PM | ||||||
| Stephen Strasburg – (1-4), 3.16 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 1.12 WHIP | Julio Teheran – (1-0), 5.48 ERA, 5.87 K/9, 1.57 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (35-110 H/AB) 0.318 BA-A, 0.3 K%, 0.882 OPS-A | PvB | (6-21 H/AB) 0.286 BA-A, 0.19 K%, 0.857 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-2), 6.35 ERA, 2 HRA, 8.7 K/9, 1.765 WHIP | HOME | (0-0), 9 ERA, 2 HRA, 3.6 K/9, 1.8 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| WSN BvP | WSN vs R | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7.5
- Favored WAS -124
Pitchers
- Home Julio Teheran got his first win of the season in his last start when he escaped 7 IP in COL allowing only 1 ER. His WHIP is a high 1.57 of the season and even in that start, he gave up 8 hits. He faces a WAS team batting .235 on the road, .243 vs. right-handers, and .208 over the last 7 days but they hit him pretty well when he started against them a couple of weeks ago. He went 6 IP giving up 4 ER with 6 Ks in his last start vs. WAS. He has yet to eclipse 100 pitches thrown in a game and has only 15 Ks on the season. Avoid
- Away Stephen Strasburg has pitched 110 pitches or more in his last 4 starts. He has been a much better pitcher at home than on the road this year. His road ERA is a 6.35 in 2 starts. He held this same Braves team to 0 ER with 7 Ks over 6.0 IP when he played them a couple of weeks ago. ATL is batting .236 at home, .251 vs. right-handers, and .245 over the last 7 days. The BvP data favors ATL also.
Batters
- Home Justin Upton is hot and the splits are in his favor today so I would say he is a good play despite the BvP data. Dan Uggla has a great line versus Strasburg. He is 9-20 with 2 HRs. Freddie Freeman and Evan Gattis have positive numbers also.
- Away Bryce Harper is still the only National whose production is worth mentioning. He took Teheran deep the last time these two teams met. Jason Werth and Ian Desmond had hits and that game and are swinging the bat better as of late.
San Diego at Chicago Cubs
| San Diego | Chicago Cubs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wrigley Field | 8:05 PM | ||||||
| Clayton Richard – (0-2), 7.94 ERA, 4.76 K/9, 2 WHIP | Jeff Samardzija – (1-4), 3.03 ERA, 10.9 K/9, 1.1 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (19-79 H/AB) 0.241 BA-A, 0.1 K%, 0.57 OPS-A | PvB | (12-59 H/AB) 0.203 BA-A, 0.25 K%, 0.712 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-1), 14.54 ERA, 3 HRA, 2.1 K/9, 2.077 WHIP | HOME | (0-1), 3 ERA, 0 HRA, 7.5 K/9, 1.333 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| SDP BvP | SDP vs R | CHC BvP | CHC vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 9
- Favored CHC -150
Pitchers
- Home Jeff Samardzija takes the hill as the huge favorite today. It will not be often that the pitcher will have that big of an edge. His high K/9 and low WHIP make him an elite option every time he takes the mound. The fact that he plays for the CHC makes him a matchup play. The SDP team is that matchup. They are batting .234 on the road, .248 vs. right-handers, and .238 over the last 7 days. Target
- Away Clayton Richards get hammered n his last outing. He lasted only 1.2 giving up 6 ER. With only 9 Ks in 4 starts and a WHIP of 2.00, it is a risky endeavor to take this young man even against a CHC team batting .271 at home, .229 vs. left-handers, and .217 over the last 7 days. Avoid
Batters
- Home Anthony Rizzo is batting .310 versus left-handers on the season and has been hot over the past 7 days. Starlin Castro has hit .364 at home so far this season and gets the splits in his favor. David Dejesus and Alfonso Soriano also have the BvP and splits in their favor today.
- Away Chase Headley has been the most productive Padre over the last 7 days with 18 FP. He has good BvP numbers today and has always been a better hitter on the road. Carlos Quentin is 3-5 vs. Samardzija with an HR and Yonder Alonso has been swinging a nice stick lately and gets the righty/lefty split in his favor. The OU is 9 so there should be some FP to be had by the Padres.