MLB Daily Grind Down May 15th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit.
While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time. (any fp listed uses Fanduel’s scoring system)
We have a full day of action on the schedule with 6 day games and 9 night games. While there aren’t any big qualifiers tonight, there is still plenty of action across the industry so let’s start breaking down the games. Today’s featured player in the Grind Down is Max Scherzer who is one of the biggest favorites I have ever seen at -365 going up against the Astros.
San Diego at Baltimore
| San Diego | Baltimore | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camden Yards | 12:35 PM | ||||||
| Jason Marquis – (4-2), 3.48 ERA, 5.32 K/9, 1.25 WHIP | Freddy Garcia – (0-1), 4.26 ERA, 3.69 K/9, 0.79 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (29-103 H/AB) 0.282 BA-A, 7.77 K%, 0.767 OPS-A | PvB | (6-27 H/AB) 0.222 BA-A, 7.41 K%, 0.741 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-1), 1.98 ERA, 2 HRA, 4 K/9, 0.805 WHIP | HOME | (0-1), 6 ERA, 2 HRA, 4.5 K/9, 1 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
SDP BvP  | SDP vs R | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 9.0
- Favored BAL -150
Pitchers
- Home Freddy Garcia has been decent in his first two starts this season, but he has only managed to get 5 K’s in 12 innings and he is still Freddy Garcia. While the matchup is there today against the Padres, there are much better options than Mr. Garcia, especially in h2h’s and 50/50’s. Avoid
- Away Jason Marquis has had 4 quality starts in his last 5, but I have a feeling that it’s going to be 4 of his last 6. A matchup against the Orioles in Baltimore does not bode well for Marquis and the Orioles bats have had success against him in the past. Avoid
Batters
- Home Nick Markakis and Adam Jones are both 4/7 off of Marquis in their careers and I think Jones makes a great play today for one of your outfielders. He is batting .345 against RHP’s this season and Marquis isn’t the best pitcher around. Chris Davis also has a great matchup against the righty, I expect a big game from him as well.
- Away There typically aren’t many solid plays on the Padres, but today is the exception thanks to Freddy Garcia. The left hand bats of Venable and Alonso look like decent plays and Chase Headley packs a lot of power for his price. He is also in play.
Houston at Detroit
| Houston | Detroit | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comerica Park | 1:05 PM | ||||||
| Dallas Keuchel – (0-1), 4.43 ERA, 5.29 K/9, 1.66 WHIP | Max Scherzer – (5-0), 3.61 ERA, 11.66 K/9, 0.97 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (7-19 H/AB) 0.368 BA-A, 21.05 K%, 1.053 OPS-A | PvB | (9-41 H/AB) 0.22 BA-A, 34.15 K%, 0.61 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-0), 0 ERA, 0 HRA, 3.6 K/9, 1 WHIP | HOME | (4-0), 5.68 ERA, 2 HRA, 10.7 K/9, 1.105 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| HOU BvP | HOU vs R | DET BvP | DET vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.5
- Favored DET -365
Pitchers
- Home These lines just keep getting bigger and bigger! The first game of the series was -300 which I thought was crazy, then yesterday’s game was -320 which was crazy, and now today’s game is -365. The bookies are doing everything they can to get people to bet on the Astros. But the smart money in daily fantasy is on the pitcher going against the Astros which is Max Scherzer today. You already know about the Astros strikeout numbers and Scherzer is averaging almost 12 K’s per nine innings. Target
- Away Dallas Keuchel is the poor sap that is the huge underdog today. There is really no reason any logical person would take him today. Avoid
Batters
- Home All of the right hand bats of the Tigers are in play today. From the top of the order down, Omar Infante, Torii Hunter, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and Jhonny Peralta are all worth considering. My top two though are Miggy and Peralta.
- Away I think you can expect a lot of K’s from the Astros. Avoid them.
Cleveland at Philadelphia
| Cleveland | Philadelphia | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citizens Bank Park | 1:05 PM | ||||||
| Corey Kluber – (2-2), 5.64 ERA, 8.14 K/9, 1.52 WHIP | Cole Hamels – (1-5), 4.18 ERA, 7.56 K/9, 1.26 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (6-14 H/AB) 0.429 BA-A, 14.29 K%, 1 OPS-A | PvB | (17-63 H/AB) 0.27 BA-A, 28.57 K%, 0.778 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (2-1), 5.74 ERA, 2 HRA, 8 K/9, 1.404 WHIP | HOME | (0-3), 4.71 ERA, 4 HRA, 6.9 K/9, 1.116 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| CLE BvP | CLE vs L | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7.5
- Favored PHI -162
Pitchers
- Home Cole Hamels is a rather big favorite today against this Indians offense that is tough to predict. Hamels strikeout numbers have made up for his high ERA and WHIP, but those numbers scare me a bit. He is just another ace that is struggling early on this year. I think he is in play, but the matchup is a bit risky and I think he is a bit overpriced. In Play
- Away Corey Kluber is not a guy that you want in your lineup. 5.64 ERA with a 1.538 WHIP and is pitching on the road against the Phillies. Avoid
Batters
- Home Anytime Ryan Howard is at home against a weak right handed pitcher he will be in my lineups. Howard is currently batting .276 at home and .322 against RHP’s. I’d like to guarantee a HR today, but I’m not quite foolish enough to do that so I will just guarantee a good game from him. Chase Utley and Domonic Brown are also worth a look.
- Away Vegas likes Hamels to shut down this Indians offense today. That and the fact that the Indians are really inconsistent makes me want to avoid them. I could see Mark Reynolds taking one deep though.
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota
| Chicago White Sox | Minnesota | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Field | 1:10 PM | ||||||
| Dylan Axelrod – (0-3), 4.17 ERA, 4.83 K/9, 1.24 WHIP | Mike Pelfrey – (3-3), 6.03 ERA, 3.96 K/9, 1.69 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (3-13 H/AB) 0.231 BA-A, 15.38 K%, 0.692 OPS-A | PvB | (10-35 H/AB) 0.286 BA-A, 11.43 K%, 0.886 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-2), 5.19 ERA, 2 HRA, 3.1 K/9, 1.615 WHIP | HOME | (2-1), 5.14 ERA, 0 HRA, 2.6 K/9, 1.714 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| CHW BvP | CHW vs R | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.5
- Favored MIN -124
Pitchers
- Home Mike Pelfrey takes the mound today and is actually a slight favorite in this one. However, he has a WHIP of 1.701 and an ERA over 6. Those aren’t numbers that I like to see from my pitcher. Avoid
- Away Dylan Axelrod has been pretty good at home this season, but on the road he is 0-2 with an ERA over 5. He faces a Twins team that can string together runs in a hurry so I wouldn’t put him too high on your list. Avoid
Batters
- Home Considering the two starters, the over/under looks a bit low to me. Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer both have the splits in their favor and have both been red hot over the past week. I also like Josh Willingham as an under the radar pick, no one seems to be using him this year.
- Away I believe I said yesterday that I would never recommend taking Adam Dunn. Then he went out and homered yesterday. Did he do it just to spite me? Obviously! Therefore, I am going to suggest taking him against Pelfrey today. Back to back games with HR’s. Alex Rios is also a good play, he has been scoring positive points seemingly every night.
Texas at Oakland
| Texas | Oakland | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.co Coliseum | 3:37 PM | ||||||
| Alexi Ogando – (3-2), 3.09 ERA, 7.08 K/9, 1.31 WHIP | Dan Straily – (1-1), 7.06 ERA, 10.61 K/9, 1.38 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (11-39 H/AB) 0.282 BA-A, 20.51 K%, 1 OPS-A | PvB | (4-19 H/AB) 0.211 BA-A, 26.32 K%, 0.579 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-2), 3.62 ERA, 5 HRA, 7.8 K/9, 1.33 WHIP | HOME | (0-0), 11.57 ERA, 2 HRA, 11.6 K/9, 1.714 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| TEX BvP | TEX vs R | OAK BvP | OAK vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.0
- Favored OAK -104
Pitchers
- Home Dan Straily has really struggled early on this season, but there are still high hopes for the young kid and even though he has been giving up runs, he still has more K’s than innings pitched. I actually think he makes a solid value play tonight against the Rangers. I am not sold on Ogando yet and I think Straily finds a way to get the win. In Play
- Away Alexi Ogando… I don’t know what he did to me, but I am just not on his bandwagon. His ERA of 3.09 isn’t bad and his WHIP of 1.319 could be a lot worse. I am just not a believer. He walks a good number of batters and his pitch count is always so high that he rarely makes it 7 innings. He is in play today against the A’s, but I’m staying away. In Play
Batters
- Home If you read the paragraph above, then you can obviously see that I’m not a huge fan of Ogando tonight. I like Brandon Moss a lot tonight even though he hasn’t been very good at home. I also think that you have to ride the hot hand of Josh Donaldson who has to be the most underused player in daily fantasy baseball.
- Away Adrian Beltre is on a tear right now so keep taking him until his hot streak cools off. Outside of Beltre, I think Straily pitches well and picks up a good number of K’s tonight.