MLB Daily Grind Down May 3rd
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit.
While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
My girlfriend is a high school English teacher so we work opposing schedules. Typically, I wake up with her in the morning and help her get ready for work because some days that 90 minutes is all that I get to see of her. Usually, I go back to sleep after that. Today, I did just that and while I was asleep I dreamed that I won the DFBC this evening.
This was not some cheezy dream of me flying to Vegas. Although, I have been there so I certainly know what that is like. It was super realistic with me sitting on the coach, watching the MLB network, and scrolling through the ESPN Score Center feed. The funny thing is the dream ended with me going to bed right as I was waking up. I got out of bed elated until I realized that I had only tricked myself This feels worse than when Whits23 stole a seat from me a couple of years ago in the eight inning of the last game of the night.
Silly or not, I am taking it as an Omen and I am going to make a real push at things to night. I have been throwing between 3-5 entries at a Q. I am thinking of doing 10x that many. It only makes things more sweet that FanDuel is giving out 1000 FDP an entry for tonight’s qualifier. It takes 50,000 points to enter their highest tier freeroll.
St. Louis at Milwaukee
| St. Louis | Milwaukee | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miller Park | 8:10 PM | ||||||
| Shelby Miller – (3-2), 2.05 ERA, 9.83 K/9, 1.01 WHIP | Kyle Lohse – (1-2), 2.53 ERA, 5.91 K/9, 0.91 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (1-20 H/AB) 0.05 BA-A, 0.35 K%, 0.1 OPS-A | PvB | (48-105 H/AB) 0.457 BA-A, 0.09 K%, 1.267 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (2-1), 2 ERA, 1 HRA, 9 K/9, 1.111 WHIP | HOME | (0-0), 2.77 ERA, 0 HRA, 7.6 K/9, 0.923 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
STL BvP  | STL vs R | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8
- Favored MIL -114
Pitchers
- Home Kyle Lohse rarely gives up many runs but he does not K all that many people as well. He never seems to make it past the 6th inning no matter how many pitches he has thrown which caps his upside and makes him unplayable tonight with so many other great pitchers going. He runs into a STL team batting .255 on the road, .256 vs. right-handers, and .263 over the last 7 days. They have owned him the past is a team with a .457 BAA. Avoid
- Away Shelby Miller is off to a great start to his MLB career. The last time he faced this Brewers team. He held them to 1 hit and had 8 ks. The Brewers have been hot and are a much different team at home. MIL is batting .277 at home, .245 vs. right-handers, and .292 over the last 7 days with 10 HRs. If the kid can recreate his performances on the road against this team then we can really start to believe he is legit. In Play
Batters
- Home Carlos Gomez has produced 48.75 fp over the last week, red hot numbers. Jean segura also has eclipse the 30 fp mark. The Brewers are a force at home and have been hot so they could easily get to the young pitcher today f you want to gamble on them.
- Away Carlos Beltran is 23-42 with 4 HRs versus Lohse. Matt Holliday , David Frees end Yadier Molina all have nice BvPs as well.
Tampa Bay at Colorado
| Tampa Bay | Colorado | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coors Field | 8:40 PM | ||||||
| Matt Moore – (5-0), 1.13 ERA, 10.69 K/9, 0.88 WHIP | Jeff Francis – (1-2), 7.29 ERA, 7.71 K/9, 1.95 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (0-0 H/AB) 0 BA-A, 0 K%, 0 OPS-A | PvB | (20-66 H/AB) 0.303 BA-A, 0.18 K%, 0.909 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (3-0), 1.5 ERA, 2 HRA, 10.5 K/9, 1.056 WHIP | HOME | (1-1), 6.91 ERA, 3 HRA, 8.8 K/9, 1.884 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| TBR BvP | TBR vs L | COL BvP | COL vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 9
- Favored TAM -125
Pitchers
- Home Jeff Francis in COL = disaster Avoid
- Away Matt Moore has pitched so well I am almost tempted to recommend him here but I cannot do it. He could have a monster game again though and win someone a GPP if they have the balls to play him. In Play
Batters
- Home Matt Moore is a tough lefty but COL crushes in COL. Troy Tulowitzki gets the splits in his favor today and Fowler has been crushing the ball. They should get to him for a few. Maybe as many as five but kind of risky to over do things given Moore’s success.
- Away Evan Longoria has been hot and is 4-6 versus Francis. Games in COL put everyone in play, though.
Baltimore at LA Angels
| Baltimore | LA Angels | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angel Stadium | 10:05 PM | ||||||
| Miguel Gonzalez – (2-1), 4.6 ERA, 5.26 K/9, 1.5 WHIP | Jason Vargas – (0-3), 4.85 ERA, 5.24 K/9, 1.75 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (3-20 H/AB) 0.15 BA-A, 0.3 K%, 0.55 OPS-A | PvB | (28-115 H/AB) 0.243 BA-A, 0.19 K%, 0.696 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-1), 2.92 ERA, 0 HRA, 5.8 K/9, 1.378 WHIP | HOME | (0-1), 5.68 ERA, 2 HRA, 4.3 K/9, 1.816 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| BAL BvP | BAL vs L | LAA BvP | LAA vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.5
- Favored LAA -126
Pitchers
- Home Forget Jason Vargas ‘s 7 K outing the last time he took the mound. He only has 17 Ks on the year and is simply not worth considering on a night that there are so many other great options. BAL is batting .267 on the road, .251 vs. left-handers, and .281 over the last 7 days. Vargas has pitched better at home and the BvP data is slightly favorable towards him but there is not enough upside in taking him today. Avoid
- Away Miguel Gonzalez was a sneaky GPP play a year ago but the Ks have just not been there for him this year. It is har to like him today against a LAA team betting .282 at home, .263 vs. right-handers, and .217 over the last 7 days. One of the two pitchers should get the win so maybe you can play them but I just do not see the rational behind taking a guy that upside is so low. Avoid
Batters
- Home Mark Trumbo, Mike Trout and Albert Pujols have been hot. I am still not yet ready to give up on Josh Hamilton and he will make his way into a few of my LUs versus the right-hander. J.B. Shucks should get another start if you need to free up salary.
- Away Matt Wieters has good BvPs today and draws a left-handed pitcher. He has hit lefties very well so far. Adam Jones is in a good spot to produce also. Manny Machado has been hot producing 32.75 FP and is play today. Do not forget about Steve Pearce who should get the start and is cheap.
Arizona at San Diego
| Arizona | San Diego | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petco Park | 10:10 PM | ||||||
| Wade Miley – (2-0), 2.37 ERA, 7.77 K/9, 1.29 WHIP | Jason Marquis – (2-2), 4.2 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 1.33 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (22-77 H/AB) 0.286 BA-A, 0.13 K%, 0.831 OPS-A | PvB | (22-65 H/AB) 0.338 BA-A, 0.17 K%, 1.138 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-0), 2.79 ERA, 1 HRA, 8.4 K/9, 1.034 WHIP | HOME | (0-1), 8.38 ERA, 3 HRA, 8.4 K/9, 1.966 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| ARI BvP | ARI vs R | SDP BvP | SDP vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7
- Favored ARI -123
Pitchers
- Home Jason Marquis normally pitches better at his home park but ARI provides to great an opponent for you to consider him even on a multiple pitcher site. His low K/9 ratio make him to risky a play because he would have to pitch near perfect in order to be a good play. ARI is batting .248 on the road, .271 vs. right-handers, and .250 over the last 7 days. The BvPs favor ARI. Avoid
- Away Wade Miley gets just about every split in his favor today. He is a much better pitcher on the road and this is a pitcher’s park. He has pitched fantastic to start the season no matter where he has taken the mound. Plus, he gets a weak hitting SDP team that is batting .254 at home, .234 vs left-handers, and .255 over the last 7 days. Although, most of the points in that last number were aided by some pretty advantageous winds blowing out of Wrigley. Some of the bench players have had success but the starters have had little. Target
Batters
- Home The recent numbers look juicy but I think it is best to avoid the Padres today because of the low OU and their inability to score runs at home so far this season.
- Away Miguel Montero is 4-14 vs. Marquis with 2 HRs. Jason Kubel has a HR in 3 AB vs. him also. Eric Chavez has been the hottest Diamondback over the last 7 days and is 1-2 vs. Marquis.
LA Dodgers at San Francisco
| LA Dodgers | San Francisco | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AT&T Park | 10:15 PM | ||||||
| Clayton Kershaw – (3-2), 1.73 ERA, 10.27 K/9, 0.91 WHIP | Barry Zito – (3-1), 3.29 ERA, 6.97 K/9, 1.35 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (43-235 H/AB) 0.183 BA-A, 0.28 K%, 0.46 OPS-A | PvB | (94-325 H/AB) 0.289 BA-A, 0.16 K%, 0.828 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-1), 3.65 ERA, 0 HRA, 10.2 K/9, 1.297 WHIP | HOME | (3-0), 0 ERA, 0 HRA, 5.1 K/9, 0.952 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| LAD BvP | LAD vs L | SFG BvP | SFG vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 6.5
- Favored LAD -134
Pitchers
- Home In my first Grind Down of the year I recommended Barry Zito based off of his great career ERA in April. He did not disappoint all month. However, his ERA in May takes a nose dive and he has a very tough opponent in Kershaw on the mound. He takes the mound against a LAD team batting .248 on the road, .301 vs. left-handers, and .225 over the last 7 days. The BvPs in this one are extensive and they favor LAD. Avoid
- Away Clayton Kershaw is a matchup proof pitcher. That means no matter what any numbers say he will always be in play because he is capable of a GPP winning outing every time he gets the call. SFO is tough at home. They are batting .280 at home, .250 vs. left-handers, and .252 over the last 7 days. Kershaw has owned them in the past to the tune of .183 BAA. The only question for me is how focused will Kershaw be after missing time over the past week.
Batters
- Home If you want to play the fade then Pablo Sandoval, Marco Scutaro, and Angel Pagan all have career .300 BvPs versus Kershaw. Buster Posey hits lefties very well also. However, SFO as a team has just 1 HR in 235 AB vs. Kershaw so not much upside is there.
- Away Matt Kemp and Adrian Gonzalez have 2 sick sets of BvPs versus Zito and the sample sizes for the two are large. There are positive numbers up and down for LAD, though. Hanley Ramirez has great numbers versus right handers for his career and looked good yesterday.