Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks for Friday, July 26th
CheeseIsGood, a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Friday! We have a big old 12-game slate with a ton of good pitching. I’m going to narrow it down to a manageable pool, but this is one of those slates where you could very reasonably have a much bigger pitching pool than what I land on. The hitting side is a lot tougher to decipher without many bad pitchers on the mound. I’ll sort and rank things the best I can there, but this is going to be more of a spread-it-out kind of slate for me with the bats.
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Friday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
This is a deep pitching slate with solid options in all different price ranges. On DK, the pricing is condensed, with no one about $10,000. I’ll sort the tiers based on the DK pricing and then note the places things are spread out differently on FD.
TOP TIER PITCHING
Freddy Peralta vs. Marlins – 30.4% K, 8.4% BB, 3.88 ERA, 3.28 SIERA
Sonny Gray vs. Nationals – 30.7% K, 5.6% BB, 3.54 ERA, 2.89 SIERA
George Kirby at White Sox – 24.7% K, 2.6% BB, 3.20 ERA, 3.27 SIERA
Zac Gallen vs. Pirates – 23.6% K, 8% BB, 3.64 ERA, 3.86 SIERA
Grayson Rodriguez vs. Padres – 27.1% K, 7.4% BB, 3.83 ERA, 3.51 SIERA
Nestor Cortes at Red Sox – 22.7% K, 4.9% BB, 3.99 ERA, 3.92 SIERA
Framber Valdez vs. Dodgers – 20.6% K, 8.4% BB, 3.63 ERA, 3.72 SIERA
Brady Singer vs. Cubs – 22.7% K, 7.3% BB, 3.00 ERA, 3.77 SIERA
Kodai Senga vs. Braves – first start of season
Charlie Morton at Mets – 23.7% K, 9.1% BB, 3.92 ERA, 3.99 SIERA
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Rangers – 26.4% K, 5.9% BB, 4.54 ERA, 3.40 SIERA
While this is a lot of good pitchers, I end up with a pretty clear top three – George Kirby, Freddy Peralta, and Sonny Gray.
George Kirby is already a consistent, trustable ace with 8 consecutive quality starts and the lowest walk rate of any starter in the league. Now he gets an ideal matchup against the team that ranks dead last in the league in ISO, wRC+, and wOBA against right-handed pitching. The strikeout ceiling for Kirby is never quite as high as some other aces, but the consistency makes up for it. If you want to chase a best-case-scenario game somewhere else, be my guest. I’ll just take the closest thing we have to guaranteed points with Kirby as my SP1 on all sites in all formats.
If you do want to chase that ceiling somewhere other than Kirby…
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