Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks for Monday, April 15th
CheeseIsGood, a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy April 15th, the most annoying day of the year! We can talk about that another time though, like when I run for Governor of the Americas!
We’ve got a reasonably busy Monday with a 9-game main slate starting at 7:07 PM ET. The slate appears to be slanted a little in favor of pitching at first glance, but let’s see what we find as we dig in a little deeper.
Monday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
This slate has one clear top ace, who is priced up accordingly, and then it’s a couple of jumbles to sort through.
ONE ACE AND A BUNCH OF PRETTY GOOD PITCHERS
Tyler Glasnow vs. Nationals – 33.2% K, 7.7% BB, 3.31 ERA, 3.07 SIERA
Merrill Kelly vs. Cubs – 25.6% K, 9.2% BB, 3.19 ERA, 4.08 SIERA
George Kirby vs. Reds – 22.5% K, 2.6% BB, 3.69 ERA, 3.73 SIERA
Joe Musgrove at Brewers – 23.5% K, 5.8% BB, 3.66 ERA, 3.87 SIERA
Sonny Gray at A’s – 24.3% K, 7.1% BB, 2.71 ERA, 3.92 SIERA
Frankie Montas at Mariners – 18.7% K, 6.7% BB, 2.00 ERA, 4.20 SIERA
Chris Bassitt vs. Yankees – 22.5% K, 7.6% BB, 3.71 ERA, 4.27 SIERA
Seth Lugo at White Sox – 21.9% K, 6% BB, 3.33 ERA, 4.06 SIERA
It doesn’t take a degree in rocket surgery to see that Tyler Glasnow is in a class of his own on this slate. Even without last week’s 14-K gem, he would be the clear top pitcher. Thankfully, he has been priced up to an appropriate level, with nearly $2,000 separating him from the rest of the slate. For me, he’s still the primary SP1 and worth making sacrifices elsewhere.
Realistically, he’s not going to have another ceiling game, but nobody on this slate gives you anywhere near the same potential or as many paths to useful DFS outings even if he’s a little off. To me, that’s really what we’re paying for. Someone like Glasnow can give up 4-5 runs and still be good enough with strikeouts to not lose it for you. And when everything goes his way, then we see what we saw last week in a game you absolutely have to have. The salary will keep me short of a lock button, but Glasnow will be my highest-owned pitcher by far, and I am not going to concern myself with the ownership.
This whole next big group of pitchers are all in the ‘better in real life than in DFS’ category. This is exactly the reason why I’m prioritizing Glasnow. He’s the only legit DFS ace on this slate. Now, with 7 other pretty good pitchers, before even looking at some more decent-ish cheaper options, someone is going to have a good start that beats an average Glasnow start in points per dollar. But, who is that going to be? I sure don’t know.
But I’ll tell you what I do think I know, or at least a couple things I feel confident in at this point:
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