Million Dollar Musings, Part I - Pitchers: Tuesday, April 4
CheeseIsGood, a two-time winner of a $1,000,000 first place prize in DFS, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Tuesday! We’ve got an 11-game slate tonight that has a seriously ginormous gap in pitching. We have a few teams who are back to the top of their rotation with aces in good matchups, and then we have nothing. I’ll start by looking into these pitching tiers, then I’ll be back in a bit with a look at the bats, where I expect to be value-hunting in order to play those aces. But we’ll see what happens as we start looking for MLB DFS picks to make these Tuesday night lineups.
Tuesday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
This is the first lopsided pitching slate of the season, as we have some teams who are back to the top of their rotation, while others are tossing out end of the rotation nonsense. Not only is there a huge gap in talent level between the tiers, the aces of this slate are also on their second starts of the year, giving them a pitch count advantage over the already weaker choices. I’m going to talk about a few cheap nonsense options, but for the most part, this slate is all about getting as much of the top five as you can afford.
THE FIVE ACES
Max Scherzer at Brewers
Shane Bieber at A’s
Framber Valdez vs Tigers
Luis Castillo vs Angels
Julio Urias vs Rockies
UPSIDE, I SUPPOSE
Andrew Heaney vs Orioles
Nick Pivetta vs Pirates
CHEAP NONSENSE
Jose Suarez at Mariners
Josh Fleming at Nationals
JP Sears vs Guardians
Yusei Kikuchi at Royals
Roansy Contreras at Red Sox
Kyle Gibson at Rangers
Domingo German vs Phillies
Dylan Dodd at Cardinals
SORTING THE ACES
Max Scherzer at Brewers – 30.6% K, 4.2% BB, 2.29 ERA, 2.88 SIERA
Shane Bieber at A’s – 25% K, 4.6% BB, 2.88 ERA, 3.21 SIERA
Framber Valdez vs Tigers – 23.5% K, 8.1% BB, 2.82 ERA, 3.14 SIERA
Luis Castillo vs Angels – 27.2% K, 7.3% BB, 2.99 ERA, 3.35 SIERA
Julio Urias vs Rockies – 24.1% K, 6% BB, 2.16 ERA, 3.66 SIERA
All five of these guys (Five Guys! Mmmm) had ERA’s below 3.00 in 2022, though only two of them did it with strikeout rates above 27%. As much as the matchups are great for Valdez and Bieber, I’m still just going with the most talented pitcher here in Max Scherzer as my SP1. While the Brewers sound like a tougher matchup than the Tigers and A’s, this is still a lineup with a lot of strikeouts, and I’m not going to start doubting Scherzer until he gives me a reason. The dude has 8 consecutive seasons with a strikeout rate above 30%, while most of these other aces have never hit that mark once.
