Million Dollar Musings: Wednesday, July 5
CheeseIsGood, a two-time winner of a $1,000,000 first-place prize in DFS, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Wednesday! I hope you were able to find a way to finish the hot dogs yesterday, otherwise, I wish you the best of luck with your leftovers today. As for me, I’ve got some more ribs ready and waiting for a top-tier 5th of July lunch.
Before we get to that, we’ve got a busy 11-game slate to tackle. There is a lot of everything, with something like a dozen top-tier pitchers and another dozen top-tier offenses. To give you a little glimpse into the future as we dig in to find some MLB DFS picks, I will tell you that I end up on a very condensed pitcher pool and a wide open hitting pool. However, this is one of those slates with so many options that you could very reasonably have a completely different type of pool party.
Wednesday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
A Big Top Tier, Or Is It?
Pablo Lopez vs. Royals – 29.8% K, 7.1% BB, 4.24 ERA, 3.43 SIERA
Kodai Senga at Diamondbacks – 28.5% K, 13% BB, 3.53 ERA, 4.27 SIERA
Lance Lynn vs. Blue Jays – 26.9% K, 8.3% BB, 6.47 ERA, 3.88 SIERA
Justin Steele at Brewers – 22.3% K, 5.6% BB, 2.43 ERA, 3.89 SIERA
Jon Gray at Red Sox – 21.1% K, 7.8% BB, 3.21 ERA, 4.48 SIERA
Jose Berrios at White Sox – 22.7% K, 6.7% BB, 3.74 ERA, 4.07 SIERA
Brayan Bello vs. Rangers – 21.8% K, 7.1% BB, 3.08 ERA, 3.96 SIERA
Alex Cobb vs. Mariners – 21.9% K, 5.8% BB, 3.12 ERA, 3.61 SIERA
Bobby Miller vs. Pirates – 21.7% K, 8.7% BB, 4.23 ERA, 4.30 SIERA
Josiah Gray vs. Reds – 21% K, 10.5% BB, 3.30 ERA, 4.79 SIERA
Seth Lugo vs. Angels – 21.9% K, 5% BB, 3.59 ERA, 3.93 SIERA
Well, this is a ton of pitchers, with eight of them stuck between 21-23% strikeouts. Of the three pitchers here with a strikeout rate over 25%, only one of them comes without an obvious flaw. That would be Pablo Lopez, making him my starting point.
Lopez not only has the highest strikeout rate on this slate, but he also has the lowest SIERA and one of the better matchups among this top tier. He is regularly getting 100 pitches and has 7+ strikeouts in 11 of his 17 starts. He’s a pretty easy fit on DK and will be the highest-owned pitcher, but I’ll be well ahead of the field here. FD priced him up well ahead of the rest of the slate, which doesn’t knock him from the top spot in my book but certainly stops him from being anything like a lock-button.
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