Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Friday (April 28)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Arizona fell a little short on Tuesday, but Jose Berrios and Justin Steele pitched well. Solid day for the article. Let’s close the work week strong.
Jacob deGrom’s Price vs. Everyone Else’s Upside
deGrom is the biggest decision point for tonight’s slate. Derek Carty’s THE BAT X projections have him 8-9 points above all other SPs on DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s also $1,200 more than the next closest pitcher on DK (gap is tighter on FD).
Even worse, two of the pitchers remotely close to deGrom’s projection are Max Fried and David Peterson. Sounds like their matchup is probably getting postponed.
The Yankees aren’t a tough opponent, either. New York has the 7th-highest K% vs. RHPs and is 19th in wOBA and wRC+.
SUMMARY: I’m eating the deGrom chalk. It’s a situation to be overweight in tournaments to be different, as big names like Framber Valdez and Luis Castillo will garner some ownership.
Lucas Giolito’s Fly Balls vs. Tampa Bay’s Power Bats
Giolito hasn’t been a disaster this season, and his fastball velocity is actually up a bit. The issue is the flyballs. His FB% has climbed every year since 2019, but this year’s 35.8% rate is a huge leap from 2022’s career-high 28.7% mark.
This is the trend we like to see when we’re hunting for dingers. Giolito’s quality of contact metrics align with his career norms, so it’s odd his HR/9 is a bit down from the past two years. He’s only given up four HRs over four starts, so it seems like there should be some regression there.
The Rays have boosted their fly ball rate as a team, and a couple of guys stick out in particular. Brandon Lowe is up to 52.4% from 39.3% and Christian Bethancourt went from 37% to 46.9%.
SUMMARY: A full Tampa Bay stack will be popular (and expensive), so I’ll be adding them as one-off power bats. I’m also sprinkling on a few HR props (Bethancourt, Yandy Diaz, Harold Ramirez).
Tyler Anderson’s Rough Start vs. Milwaukee’s Lefty Ineptitude
Ah yes, the classic stoppable force up against a moveable object.
Anderson has allowed at least 5 ER in three straight outings. Last season, he excelled with the Dodgers on the strength of the second-best changeup in baseball (by pitch value), behind only Sandy Alcantara’s changeup. The pitch has been knocked around this season (.333 BA), and his 89 MPH heater has also been hammered.
The Brewers are the ideal candidate to help Anderson get back on track. They have far and away the worst strikeout rate vs. LHPs and are 29th or 30th in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+.
SUMMARY: It’s gross, but I’m rolling with Anderson. He’s not getting the same whiffs on the changeup, but the hard-hit rate is actually down from last year. Anderson makes sense as an SP2 on DraftKings to fit deGrom and some high-end bats.