Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Friday (July 14)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Due to my 2-year-old son’s devotion to baseball content, I watched the 2019 Home Run Derby this week. Couldn’t get over how relatively unknown the field was compared to the 2023 event. Acuna, Alonso and Guerrero Jr. were there, but the next-closest “star” was … Joc Pederson? Alex Bregman? Certainly not Josh Bell or Matt Chapman.
This year’s derby had basically all household names, outside of maybe Adley Rutschman or Adolis Garcia, and even those guys are the best players on top AL teams.
The dunk contest needs to take notes (no offense to Jericho Sims).
Kenta Maeda’s Presumed Health vs. His Hard Contact
Maeda hit the IL with a triceps injury in late April. I’m guessing he was hurt before then. After a solid 5-inning, 9-strikeout outing to open the year, he gave up 15 ER over his next three starts, punctuated by a 10 ER disaster against the Yankees. Maeda averaged 91 MPH on the 4-seamer in his first start, but it ticked down over his following outings, bottoming out at 88.5 MPH in that New York game.
More notably, the swinging strike rate also plummeted. Maeda posted a massive 21.3% SwStr% in his season debut, then 3.6%, 6.9% and 6.9% in his remaining April outings. He struck out just five over those three starts.
Maeda returned in late June and so did the strikeouts. He had 21 Ks over 17 IP through three starts before the All-Star break. The swinging strike rate predictably followed suit: 13.3%, 17.1% and 16.1%. His 4-seam velocity was up over 90 MPH. Kinda seems like he’s back to normal.
The one thing that persisted from his initial stretch through this most recent run is the hard contact. Maeda is getting destroyed when the ball is put in play. He’s 1st percentile in average exit velocity (92.7 MPH) on the season, and it remained above 92 MPH over the three post-IL starts.
SUMMARY: I’m more or less on board with Maeda being his usual self, which means his $7K price on FanDuel is way to cheap and the $7.7K salary on DraftKings is more than reasonable. Especially facing Oakland, this is a spot to buy in on Maeda’s recent form.
J.P. France’s Bat-Missing Challenges vs. LA’s Trout-Less Lineup
France has been solid since he entered Houston’s rotation in early May, with a 3.26 ERA and only two starts of more than 3 ER allowed. It just feels like a combustible profile. His strikeout rate is 17.6% (league average is 22.1%) and he throws his worst pitches most often. France’s 4-seam fastball has a massive 48.4% hard-hit rate, yet he throws it 43.2% of the time. His second most-used pitch, the cutter, has allowed a .354 AVG and a .500 SLG.
France’s changeup, slider and curveball all look like effective pitches, with hefty whiff numbers and minimal hard-hit rates. But he only throws them a combined 36.8% of the time.
The Angels have the second-highest wRC+ vs. RHPs since the start of June, but they’ll be without Mike Trout for at least a month. Tonight’s projected lineup has several low-power bats and can largely be ignored beyond Hunter Renfroe in the 5-hole. The question is whether the top half of the lineup can capitalize on France’s shortcomings.
SUMMARY: France is due for a blowup. Shohei Ohtani and Mickey Moniak both have ISOs over .360 against righties. Renfroe and Taylor Ward also deserve a look, as France has given up more power to righties than lefties.
Give me the Angels Over 4.5 runs at even money on BetMGM as well.
Scary Weather vs. Luis Castillo Chalk
Kevin Roth’s weather forecast is always a must-read, and today you’ll probably be refreshing it constantly up until lock. There’s a concerning amount of ORANGE on the page.
There’s actually a bunch of interesting SP options tonight, but several of them are involved in these shaky weather situations. Urias, Verlander, Glasnow and Alcantara on the high end, plus some intriguing options like Bello, Hendricks and Kremer.
The one arm that stands out from a price and matchup perspective without weather concerns is Castillo, and projected ownership reflects it. We have him as the highest-owned SP on both sites right now.
SUMMARY: I’m leaning toward rolling the dice on the weather instead of giving in to the Castillo chalk. Good opportunity to play some low-owned aces with similar upside. Just make sure to keep an eye on Roth’s twitter feed.