Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Friday (May 19)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
If the season ended today, Miami (23-21) would get the last NL Wild Card spot. The Marlins’ run differential is -52, better than only the Royals, White Sox and Athletics. Pretty crazy.
Sandy Alcantara’s Form vs. Other High-End SPs
This is an uncomfortable pitching slate. Joe Ryan and Bryce Miller have been excellent but get the Angels and Braves, respectively. Blake Snell faces a tough Red Sox lineup. Tony Gonsolin has the red-hot Cardinals.
That leaves Alcantara as the “safest” ace. The reigning NL Cy Young winner has scuffled to a 1-4 record and a 4.91 ERA. His changeup was the second-most effective pitch in the league last season (behind only Dylan Cease’s slider) but it’s allowed a .313 batting average this year.
The matchup is decent, as the Giants are 24th or worse in all major offensive categories against RHPs in May.
SUMMARY: Alcantara feels like a cash-game lock. He’s the only arm on this slate with considerable safety + upside. Would look to fade him in tournaments though, especially if projected ownership holds (currently over 20% on both sites).
Washington’s Punchless Offense vs. Matthew Boyd’s Fly Balls
We’re usually looking to identify power bats when it comes to stacks. Piling up home runs wins tournaments. The Nationals … don’t have any power.
Washington is 29th in home runs. They’re dead last in dingers vs. LHPs, despite hitting lefties well. The Nats are top 10 in OPS, wOBA and wRC+ against left-handers to go with a league-low 16.8% strikeout rate.
Home runs used to be Boyd’s problem, but it’s been more the lack of strikeouts and a few too many walks leading to his 6.47 ERA. His below-average hard-hit rate has helped keep the ball in the yard despite a career-high fly ball rate.
SUMMARY: We need some cheap hitting to fit Alcantara and the Nats feel like a good place to start. Just have to hope they have enough pop to find the seats a few times.
Lane Thomas is a lefty killer (.295/.364/.502 career slash line), I like him at +490 on Caesars to hit a home run.
James Paxton’s Resurgent Velocity vs. General Skepticism
It’s hard to know what to do with Paxton’s first start with Boston. He struck out nine over 5 innings and averaged 96.3 MPH on his 4-seamer. He walked just one, after handing out 16 free passes over 21.2 innings during his minor league rehab assignment.
The 96.3 MPH average velocity is the hardest Paxton has sat since 2016. Injuries have limited him to 1.1 innings since 2020.
Paxton is understandably cheap, priced at $8,300 on both sites.
SUMMARY: If you’re trying to fit a bunch of Houston bats, you’re probably shopping in this range. Paxton is worth a look. There’s a chance this is the last time he’s under $9K.