Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Tuesday (April 18)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Marco Gonzales’ newborn had no respect for Friday’s article. Kid couldn’t wait to be born on an off-day?!
Cubs’ RH Power vs. Ken Waldichuk and Oakland’s Bullpen
Waldichuk has massive splits in his limited MLB sample. He’s allowed a .304/.374/.614 slash line against righties and held lefties to .162/.225/.270. He’s given up six HRs to right-handers through three starts.
The Cubs have a top 5 OPS and wOBA vs. lefties. Two bats stand out in particular…
- Patrick Wisdom – On an absolute heater right now with five HRs in four games. Career .299 ISO and 137 wRC+ against LHPs. Already has four HRs in 16 ABs against lefties.
- Seiya Suzuki – Showed much more power vs. lefties than same-handed pitching in his rookie season (.212 ISO vs. .157 ISO). Career 46% hard contact rate vs. LHPs.
If the Cubs get to Waldichuk early, they’ll get a healthy dose of a bullpen with a 5.97 ERA (28th). Only two teams have given up more HRs than the Oakland relievers.
SUMMARY: Pirates/Rockies bats in Coors (with nice weather) will get a ton of ownership. Wisdom + Suzuki + a cheap bat (Mancini, Gomes) make for a solid pivot. I’m also taking the Over on Chicago’s team total (4.5 at +100 on FanDuel).
Brad Keller’s Curveball vs. Strikeout-Prone Rangers
He’s back! My guy Keller has been mentioned here a couple times already this season. His revamped arsenal finally generated a quality start last time out against this same Rangers team.
Keller unveiled two new breaking balls this year and it’s the curveball that’s improved his bat-missing ability. The hook has a 37.2% whiff rate, a career-high for any Keller offering. It accounted for four of his seven strikeouts against Texas and has become his second most-used pitch. Keller’s 8.47 K/9 is easily a career-best and is well above his 6.79 career mark.
The Rangers only mustered four baserunners against Keller last week. Seeing him a second time so soon is a plus for them, but this lineup still has seven hitters with a strikeout rate above 21%.
SUMMARY: Another weak pitching slate. The savings on Keller (especially at $6.6K on DraftKings) will go a long way toward being able to afford the expensive stacks. You know I’m on the Over on Keller’s strikeout prop too (4.5 at plus money on BetMGM), and I’ll take the ladder up to 7+ Ks.
Jordan Montgomery’s Projected Ownership vs. Other Expensive Pitchers
Again, weak pitching slate outside of Spencer Strider. pOWN is clustered around Strider and Blake Snell on both sites, with Logan Gilbert joining them on DraftKings. Strider is a scary fade, but he did labor against this Padres squad a couple of weeks ago. Snell and Gilbert both have challenging matchups.
Getting away from this trio in tournaments makes sense, especially if you’re looking to roster popular stacks (Pirates, Rockies, Twins, etc). Don’t mind Sonny Gray and the new emphasis on his breaking balls, but Boston has hit sliders and curveballs pretty well. Mets have done well against lefties but Clayton Kershaw is always worth considering.
Give me Jordan Montgomery. Arizona is a solid matchup (20th or worse in OPS/wOBA/wRC+ vs. LHPs), he’s at home (3.54 career home ERA vs. 4.11 on the road), and his projection is within a few points of everybody but Strider.
SUMMARY: Could go Gray or Kershaw as the pivot, even Nathan Eovaldi against Kansas City. But I’ll give the edge to Montgomery. Main thing is getting away from Strider/Snell/Gilbert in tournaments.