Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Tuesday (May 30)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Shane Bieber doesn’t care about your expected stats! Have to think it catches up to him at some point but he was great again against St. Louis on Friday.
Zac Gallen’s Projected Ownership vs. Colorado Away From Coors
Basically a dream scenario for Gallen. He’s at home (0.77 ERA vs. 5.40 on the road) against the Rockies coming off a series at Coors Field.
Gallen is right there with Spencer Strider in the NL Cy Young race. He and Shane McClanahan clearly have the best skills on the slate.
Of course, none of this is a secret and Gallen is projected to be the highest-owned SP on both sites. It’s the first decision you have to make when building lineups today.
SUMMARY: There are enough decent starters to dilute ownership. I don’t see Gallen getting over 30% pOWN, which means it shouldn’t be too hard to be overweight. The floor is sky-high and he easily has the highest ceiling projection. I’m jamming him in everywhere.
Grant Neiffer is already on Gallen Over 18.5 outs, I’ll tail him (+150 on DraftKings). Also taking the Colorado team total Under 3.5 (-155 on DraftKings).
Yusei Kikuchi’s Rough May vs. THE Best Matchup for LHPs
Speaking of good matchups! We’ve been blindly rostering lefties against the Brewers all season. This will be a true test.
Kikuchi has been brutal this month with a 6.29 ERA and eight HRs allowed in 24.1 innings. He’s actually limited the walks (career-low 6.4% BB rate), but the hard contact continues to be a problem (4th percentile in average exit velocity and 8th percentile in hard-hit rate).
You know the deal with Milwaukee by now. Dead last in OPS and wOBA vs. LHPs, and the highest strikeout rate (30.4%) by a healthy margin.
SUMMARY: Kikuchi was better in April and some of the matchups have been challenging this month (Red Sox, Braves, Rays). THE BAT gave him the 4th-highest ceiling projection on FanDuel. He’s worth adding to your tournament pool at the very least.
I’m on the Over 5.5 strikeouts (-120 on BetMGM) as well.
Minnesota’s Power vs. Brandon Bielak’s Barrels
The Twins have been striking out a ton in May, especially against RHPs (dead last at 27.9%). But they’ve also hit the third-most HRs vs. righties this month.
Joey Gallo (.254) and Byron Buxton (.274) both have massive ISOs against RHPs over the last two seasons. Edouard Julien (.298) and Royce Lewis (.324) have been even better, although their samples are much smaller.
Bielak has a solid 3.55 ERA, but he’s given up a lot of hard contact. The 2nd percentile barrel rate sticks out in particular. After allowing three HRs over his first four starts, Milwaukee got to him for three dingers on Wednesday.
SUMMARY: Minimum-priced Lewis will be popular, but the rest of the Twins will be ignored. They’re solid options at minimal ownership if you’re hunting for power.