Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Tuesday (September 19)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Not a big home/road splits guy, unless it’s something super obvious (Coors Field). But the Gallen stuff is kinda hard to overlook…
Zac Gallen at Home vs. San Francisco’s Deceiving Offense
If Gallen got to only pitch at home, he would’ve won the NL Cy Young easily. And if he only pitched on the road, he might be sent down to Reno.
Gallen has a 2.18 ERA and a 30.5% K% in 90.2 IP at Chase Field. He’s at a 4.68 ERA and 21.7% K% in 102 IP on the road. Gallen is tied for third in wins with 15, and 11 of them have come at home. He’s tossed quality starts in 11-of-14 home starts.
San Francisco’s offensive numbers look average over the last 30 days (15th in wRC+ vs. RHP), but that’s skewed by a big weekend at Coors Field. They’re 26th in wRC+ vs. RHP since the start of August. They were dead last in the month of August.
SUMMARY: Gallen is cheaper than Strider/Snell/Castillo and comes with half of the projected ownership. Sign me up. He’s an ideal tournament play and a strong option if you’re trying to go double aces on DraftKings.
Jose Urena’s Bad Pitching vs. Washington’s Bad Hitting
Classic stoppable force meeting a movable object situation here.
Everything for Urena is bad. Low strikeout rate (14.5%), bloated walk rate (11.6%), massive hard-hit rate (48.5%), huge barrel rate (12.9%). It’s no surprise his xERA is 7.32.
Washington has been the worst offense vs. RHP the past 30 days, ranking 29th or worse in OPS, wOBA and wRC+. CJ Abrams and Lane Thomas have typically been the main DFS targets for the Nats, but they’re both barely hitting .200 in September.
SUMMARY: Probably just going to roll the dice on fading the Washington bats. I’m sure they’ll knock Urena around, just not confident in who will do the damage. Don’t mind some one-off salary savers (Dominic Smith, Keibert Ruiz, Luis Garcia).
New York’s Big Righties vs. Yusei Kikuchi’s Improvement
Speaking of splits, the Yankees have been a polar opposite team against lefties vs. righties. They’re 1st in wRC+ vs. LHP since the start of August, but 28th vs. RHP over that stretch.
Several hitters in New York’s projected lineup have ISOs up over .230 against lefties, from familiar faces (Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton) to some unexpected power sources (Anthony Volpe and Kyle Higashioka).
This would be a slam-dunk stack in the past, but Kikuchi has taken tangible steps forward. He’s trimmed his walk rate and hard-hit rate considerably this season, while maintaining an above-average strikeout rate. Kikuchi’s 3.81 ERA is a career-best mark, and his 4.20 xERA supports it. Texas did get to him for 6 ER last time out, so he’s not impenetrable, but he’s made major improvements.
SUMMARY: Kikuchi’s solid numbers are keeping New York’s projected ownership down, so I’ll be loading up on Yankees. Judge is the only expensive bat, so it won’t be a problem to get 3-5 of them in there. I’ll start with Judge/Stanton/Torres then go from there.