MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, June 28th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Pitching is dreadful on this slate. Normally, when pitching is weak on a large slate, I like to narrow my stacks pool down and spread out the pitching exposure because that’s what the field is scared to do, but I just can’t on this slate. Everyone gives up a ton of bombs. Hell, we can stack 20 teams and that might not be enough.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Friday, June 28th
TOP OFFENSES
Orioles vs. Max Scherzer
Yankees at Yusei Kikuchi
Braves vs. Martin Perez
There are no stacks on this entire slate where a team is facing a gas can in an extreme hitter-friendly park at delectable pOWN%. A lot of noise is gonna jumble up a lot of teams into the same tier. Ownership should be so spread out that we can play whomever we want, so I think it’s important to start with the best offenses on in strong spots to generate some power, as they’ll carry lower ownership costs than we’re used to paying. There are no true top stacks on this slate. I wanna make sure that we don’t forget about the best offenses. We don’t need these offenses to be in perfect spots. We just need to have their pitchers in vulnerable spots.
The Orioles against Max Scherzer is where we’ll start. Max Scherzer is a first-ballot Hall of Famer who still possesses high-level strikeout stuff and elite control as he closes in on 40 years of age. But Scherzer has always been a fly-ball pitcher who gives up some dongs here and there. Recently, he’s given up a lot.
In 2023, he surrendered 1.65 HR/9 in 152.2 IP. He gave up 3 HRs to minor leaguers in his 11 rehab innings. His 2024 debut was clean. He gave up zero runs on zero barrels, but his ground-ball to fly-ball ratio was 0.57. There is a chance that an elite Baltimore offense will blow him up — enough of a chance to stack them up without much fear.
The Orioles bring a lot of pop to Scherzer’s weak power prevention in the high barrel rates against righties of:
Gunnar Henderson, 14.7%
Heston Kjerstad, 12.1%
Anthony Santander, 9.8%
Ryan O’Hearn, 9.3%
Add the 31.3% fly-ball rate of Cedric Mullins and the 29.6% rate of Adley Rutschman and we have ourselves a stack with a lot of power potential. If Colton Cowser cracks the lineup, he has an 11.6% barrel rate against righties.
Camden Yards is a tough place for righty power since they moved back the left fence, but lefty power still gets theirs. The Rangers bullpen is a bit underrated but not scary, as Scherzer is likely not pitching half of the game. The downside to stacking against Scherzer is that no one is gonna play him because of pitch count fears. If he had 20% pOWN%, the Orioles would be my top stack of the night.
But Scherzer isn’t gonna be owned, so the Orioles are kinda the same as the Yankees and Braves, both facing lefties who struggle with power prevention.
The Yankees draw Yusei Kikuchi, who’s also a pretty good pitcher, but he is giving up a 10.2% barrel rate to righties this season and an 8% rate to lefties since the start of the 2023 season. We can easily attack him with the high barrel rates against lefties of:
Aaron Judge, 37%
Juan Soto, 13%
Gleyber Torres, 10.3%
J.D. Davis, 10.2%
Add the .182 ISO of Anthony Volpe against lefties with his 86th-percentile sprint speed and the .196 ISO of Jose Trevino against lefties, and the stack can make itself a decent ballpark for hitting.
The Braves are the tough ones. They haven’t been elite this season and are less of themselves without Ronald Acuna and Michael Harris. Add that Martin Perez is a ground-ball pitcher and that their pOWN% is top 3 and maybe we wanna stay away.
I understand that, but Perez is getting hit very hard when he gets hit in the air for 1.41 HR/9 on a 9.6% barrel rate this season — including a 60.8% hard-hit rate allowed to righties. The Braves still pack a ton of power against lefties in their lineup through the high barrel rates of:
Adam Duvall, 16.5%
Marcell Ozuna, 15%
Austin Riley, 15%
Matt Olson, 12.8%
Travis d’Arnaud, 11% (Sean Murphy, 16.5%)
Orlando Arcia, 11%
Ramon Laureano, 10.1%
Ozuna, Riley, and Olson are expensive, but Duvall, Arcia, and Laureano are really cheap power pieces that allow us a lot of roster flexibility, which is probably why their pOWN% is higher than the Orioles and Yankees.
I think we’re splitting hairs between these 3 teams, who are all facing pitchers who struggle with power prevention. The O’s and Yanks have been elite this season, while the Braves pack in the highest quantity of cheap power bats. I can’t rank them all, but I will be playing all 3 teams to some capacity in my 5 smaller-field lineups (400-700 entrants).
CHALKY STACK
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