MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 10/3/22
Just three days left of regular season MLB DFS and today we have a nice eleven game slate with a couple games that could have rain issues.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
TOR/BAL is looking to be cold and wet all day and night and although it’s never truly “heavy” rain it’s probably going to be enough rain for a potential late start or delay at some point in the night. Check back on this game closer to lock but for now I’m not too high on players here. WSH/NYM is also a risky game tonight as there’s steady rain that breaks up a bit around game time but light rain will continue off and on through the game and potentially steadier rain that could cause a lot of delays or an early PPD.
TB/BOS, WSH/NYM, and MIN/CHW will be in the 50s with WSH/NYM seeing 16mph winds blowing in from center while SF/SD, LAA/OAK, and COL/LAD will be in the 60s. Today’s dome games are DET/SEA, PHI/HOU, ARI/MIL, and NYY/TEX.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for TB/BOS are -30.7% while total runs for MIN/CHW are -13.7%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
The Mariners will get Julio Rodriguez back in the lineup today while the Red Sox will activate Eric Hosmer although Triston Casas has done enough to keep starting. Evan Longoria is out for the year with a broken hand while Justin Turner is getting a day off for LAD. Anthony Rendon is back for the Angels for these last few games and is minimum price on FanDuel.
The Dodgers are my top stack of the day at home in nice weather against Urena while the Brewers and Mets are my next favorite stacks both at home against pretty weak pitchers. I also like SEA, SDP, and LAA for GPP stacks.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with Max Muncy ($2,800) as my top value play of the slate while Will Smith ($3,100) and Gavin Lux ($2,700) are also at great prices for more cheap LAD exposure. On the other LA team of the slate I like Luis Rengifo ($2,500) and Matt Thaiss ($2,200) for value.
The Brewers are where I’m looking next as they have a ton of cheap bats against the lefty Henry who has allowed six HRs and seventeen ERs over his last three starts. Hunter Renfroe ($3,000) is my favorite play for the price while Willy Adames ($3,600) is still very affordable with huge upside. Andrew McCutchen ($2,500) and Mike Brosseau ($2,200) are my next favorite values while Christian Yelich ($3,000) is at a great price even in the L/L matchup.
The Mets have a really nice value trio of Jeff McNeil ($2,600), Eduardo Escobar ($2,400), and Daniel Vogelbach ($2,500) while Nimmo ($3,400), Lindor ($3,700), and Alonso ($4,200) are all in play too. More cheap bats I like today include Giancarlo Stanton ($3,000), Josh Donaldson ($2,900), Luis Urias ($2,500), Anthony Rendon ($2,000), Cal Raleigh ($2,700), Jarred Kelenic ($2,200), and Jesse Winker ($2,400).
Looking at DraftKings the Dodgers are going to be harder to fit if you go with two expensive pitchers but I still like the prices of Max Muncy ($4,900), Gavin Lux ($3,600), and Cody Bellinger ($3,400).
Mike Brosseau ($2,300) and Keston Hiura ($2,300) are my favorite extreme values for MIL while Andrew McCutchen ($3,900) and Luis Urias ($3,700) are solid mid-range options. Hunter Renfroe ($4,700) and Willy Adames ($5,200) are the highest upside plays at not too bad of prices if you can fit in one or both.
For the Mets Brandon Nimmo ($4,500) is my favorite play for the price while Jeff McNeil ($4,200), Daniel Vogelbach ($3,400), and Eduardo Escobar ($4,100) are still at nice prices. Other value to consider today includes Nate Lowe ($3,700), Josh Jung ($2,600), Jesse Winker ($3,100), Jarred Kelenic ($2,300), Josh Bell ($3,200), Anthony Rendon ($3,600), Gavin Sheets ($2,500), and Livan Soto ($2,400).
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn