MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 9/27/22
Big twelve game main slate today with no rain concerns. I’m also going to call an Aaron Judge HR in the 3rd inning off Berrios on a 2-2 curveball to tie Roger Maris and then a 9th inning grand slam to break the record just in case it actually happens cause why not.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
The warmest game of the day is OAK/LAA with temps in the high 70s while the coldest games are BAL/BOS, CHW/MIN, PHI/CHC, and COL/SF all seeing temps in the low 60s to low 50s.
BAL/BOS will see 5-10mph wind blowing out; MIA/NYM will see 12-14mph blowing out; PHI/CHC will see 14mph wind blow in from left to right; COL/SF will see 10-18mph wind out to center.
Dome games today include NYY/TOR, STL/MIL, ARI/HOU, and TEX/SEA.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for COL/SF are +12% while total runs for BAL/BOS are +7.4%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
For the D-Backs Jake McCarthy is back from the bereavement list while Alek Thomas has been optioned to AAA and Eugenio Suarez is on track to return from the IL for SEA. Nelson Cruz is likely still out with his eye issues and we’ll see if Ramon Urias or Terrin Vavra are able to return to the lineup for BAL with various injures. Nick Castellanos is also set to return from the IL for Philly and the Cubs will get Willson Contreras and Seiya Suzuki back too (Suzuki not starting). I’m sure there will more to report once lineups start rolling out but for now that’s about it as far as injuries or transactions of note.
The Braves are my favorite stack today against the low strikeout righty Espino and the Astros are right behind them for a top stack option at home against the righty Davies. In the next tier I like the Orioles and Yankees and some other GPP stacks to consider include BOS, NYM, STL, LAA, and SEA.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with Matt Olson ($3,300) at an excellent price on my favorite stack and from the more expensive ATL options my favorite bat is Michael Harris ($4,100) as his HR, SB, and RBI upside hitting 5th gives him one of the highest ceilings of the slate. Willson Contreras ($3,100) is a fine cheap option while Riley, Swanson, and Acuna all have big upside if you want to jam in another bat from ATL.
BOS and BAL continue to have great value options as everyone besides Devers and Bogaerts is under $3,200 on both teams. Cedric Mullins ($3,000), Anthony Santander ($3,000), Ryan Mountcastle ($2,700), and Gunnar Henderson ($2,900) are my top BAL options while Alex Verdugo ($2,700), JD Martinez ($2,800), and Tommy Pham ($3,000) are where I’m looking for BOS value.
The Mariners also offer some great value bats today facing a bullpen game for TEX as JP Crawford ($2,100) should continue to hit leadoff until Rodriguez returns while Ty France ($3,000), Mitch Haniger ($2,700), Carlos Santana ($2,700), and Jarred Kelenic ($2,300) are all nice cheap options to consider today.
More bats I like for the price today include Lane Thomas ($2,500), Alex Call ($2,300), Josh Donaldson ($2,900), Daniel Vogelbach ($2,600), Brendan Donovan ($2,700), Rowdy Tellez ($2,700), Jeremy Pena ($3,100), Luis Rengifo ($2,500), and Joc Pederson ($2,500).
Looking at DraftKings I’m again starting with Matt Olson ($4,500) and Michael Harris ($4,700) as I definitely want ATL exposure and they’re the highest upside bats for under $5k. On the other side of that game I like the value of Lane Thomas ($3,400), Luke Voit ($3,300), and Alex Call ($2,200) all with the platoon advantage on Muller.
For BAL and BOS my favorite options are Gunnar Henderson ($3,700), Anthony Santander ($4,300), Ryan Mountcastle ($3,900), Alex Verdugo ($4,100), and JD Martinez ($4,100) while Rougned Odor ($2,300) and Triston Casas ($2,100) are a couple extreme salary savers to consider.
JP Crawford ($3,000), Carlos Santana ($2,500), and Jarred Kelenic ($2,200) remain at excellent prices for SEA and some other value bats I like today are Oswaldo Cabrera ($2,800), Austin Hays ($3,200), Corey Dickerson ($2,700), Albert Pujols ($3,000), Daniel Vogelbach ($3,700), and Mike Yastrzemski ($3,500).
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn