MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 5/18/2022
Today we have a 6-game main slate on DraftKings starting at 7:05PM EST and an 8-game main slate on FanDuel starting at 6:40PM EST.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
NYY/BAL will start dry and see some light rain later in the game but it shouldn’t get heavy enough to cause any issues and SDP/PHI is in a similar spot with light rain later in the game that shouldn’t cause any issues.
There isn’t much wind today either with STL/NYM seeing the most at ~9mph blowing out while SDP/PHI has ~5mph blowing out to right. NYY/BAL, PIT/CHC, and CHW/KCR all have minor wind blowing crosswise and LAA/TEX, SEA/TOR, and WSH/MIA are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for STL/NYM are +18.2% while total runs for PIT/CHC are -8.4%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Bryce Harper is recovering from a platelet-rich plasma injection in his right elbow and sounded like he is hoping to be back Thursday so we’re expecting him out today (FD only game) while Jorge Mateo is likely back in the lineup today after the Orioles optioned Bannon yesterday. Starling Marte is on the bereavement list so look for Travis Jankowski to start for him and Jeff McNeil to hit in the top part of the order and Salvador Perez just went on the IL with a thumb sprain so MJ Melendez should start at C with Rivero backing him up.
For the 2 games on FD only I’m not loving any of these offenses really with the Phillies being OK for a GPP stack along with the Marlins against Josiah Gray coming off a 6 ER start. The Yankees and Blue Jays are my top stacks today with both sitting on team totals above 4.5 currently with Aaron Judge and George Springer anchoring both stacks and Josh Donaldson / Teoscar Hernandez my favorite value plays on each stack. The Angels and White Sox come in as my next favorite stacks against the righties Dunning and Greinke while the Mets are a solid GPP stack today.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m going to try to jam in Aaron Judge ($4,400) and Mike Trout ($4,200) as they’re just a bit too cheap still with how locked in they are at the plate especially Judge with 5 HR in his last 7 games. Josh Donaldson ($3,200), Aaron Hicks ($2,500), Gleyber Torres ($2,500), Alejandro Kirk ($2,300), and Teoscar Hernandez ($3,000) are my favorite value plays while Joey Gallo is always boom-or-bust but he is extremely cheap at $2,600 if he can run in to one today. Anthony Rendon is also crazy cheap at $2,900 hitting .400 over his last six games and if you want some White Sox exposure the prices of Jose Abreu ($2,700) and Yasmani Grandal ($2,400) remain super low. Other value bats I’m liking on FD are Matt Chapman ($2,800), Dominic Smith ($2,000), Jared Walsh ($3,100), and Mark Canha ($2,800).
Looking at DraftKings it’s still possible to fit in Judge ($6,100) and Trout ($5,800) but not as much of a priority as it is for me on FD as you’ll have to sacrifice pitching on DK and today is a day I want to spend on pitchers. Josh Donaldson ($4,000), Aaron Hicks ($2,700), and Joey Gallo ($3,200) are my favorite Yankees for the price while Santiago Espinal ($3,600) and Lourdes Gurriel ($3,600) are cheap ways to get Toronto exposure but George Springer ($5,100) and Teoscar Hernandez ($4,900) are still very affordable with much higher upside. It seems crazy to target anyone against Shohei Ohtani or Max Scherzer but if you need some dirt cheap bats I’d consider Kole Calhoun ($2,300) and Brendan Donovan ($2,300) who have both been seeing the ball really well lately. Other DK bats I’m considering are Dominic Smith ($3,000), Rafael Ortega ($2,600), Yoan Moncada ($3,700), and AJ Pollock ($2,000).
We have a lot of elite pitching going today but Kevin Gausman is my top play at home against Seattle who were just shutout by Jose Berrios yesterday so it’s hard to see them getting to Gausman at all and he is somehow under $10k on FD. On DraftKings I’m going to jam in Gausman and Cole but the prices of Ohtani ($9,200) and Giolito ($8,300) are extremely tempting if you need the extra salary to fit in a bat you love and Max Scherzer is always an elite option in any format and could be much lower-owned than usual today with so many great options around him.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn