MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 5/30/2022
Happy Memorial Day and thank you to all who are serving and have served in any capacity! We have a nice 6-game main slate with great weather so hopefully you can get some MLB DFS in while you’re grilling out with friends and family!
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
We have no rain to worry about today but wind will play a factor especially with MIL/CHC as we’re looking at 20+ mph winds blowing out to left center and with 85-90 degree heat balls should be flying in Wrigley today. BAL/BOS & WSH/NYM will have ~10mph winds blowing out and warm temps while PIT/LAD will only have ~5mph winds blowing out and a bit cooler temps in the mid 60’s. TBR/TEX and ATL/ARI are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for MIL/CHC are +75.8% while total runs for WSH/NYM are +19.4%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Ben Gamel and Max Muncy are both on the IL but I’m not looking to use any Pirates against Buehler while Edwin Rios should continue to start for Muncy and is a very solid play for his price on both sites. MIL/CHC game 2 should be a very popular game to target with big wind blowing out and very hot temps so make sure to check both lineups as they could be a bit different than usual as doubleheaders make for interesting roster decisions but you can assume who ever doesn’t start in game 1 will likely start game 2 and both teams should go very righty-heavy against the lefties Ashby and Smyly. Lane Thomas should continue to hit 2nd against the lefty Peterson and is a top value play coming off a nice game with a HR yesterday and if Nimmo remains out for the Mets look for Luis Guillorme to keep hitting leadoff and is a top value play as well on both sites with five hits over his last two games.
MIL and CHC are the clear top stacks today as this wind and heat in Wrigley is just too good to fade and both teams are priced way too cheap. BOS and LAD are my next favorite stacks at home against mediocre righties and although the studs are priced up there’s still some nice value plays on each team. Lastly the Mets could be a very low-owned stack today but with a team total almost at 5 currently I’d make sure to get them in a lineup or two if you’re doing a bunch in GPPs.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I want as many MIL and CHC righties as I can fit so Christopher Morel, Willson Contreras, Frank Schwindel, and Patrick Wisdom are the first Cubs I’m looking to stack while Tyrone Taylor, Andrew McCutchen, Luis Urias, and either Keston Hiura or Mike Brosseau are my MIL targets. I mentioned them early but Lane Thomas ($2,300) and Luis Guillorme ($2,000) are great value plays if they hit high in the order today and you need more salary relief along with Edwin Rios for just $2,600 likely hitting 5th. In the mid-range prices I really like Enrique Hernandez ($3,000), Alex Verdugo ($3,000), and Nelson Cruz ($3,100).
Looking at DraftKings my favorite CHC righties for the price are Christopher Morel ($3,300) and Frank Schwindel ($3,600) and if Clint Frazier starts game 2 he’s a fine value play at ($2,900). For MIL I’m all over Andrew McCutchen ($3,300) and Tyrone Taylor ($3,100) at those prices with Mike Brosseau ($3,100) and Keston Hiura ($2,900) also way too cheap. Lane Thomas remains a great value play at $2,400 while Luis Guillorme is a bit pricier but still solid at $3,300 if he hits leadoff. Enrique Hernandez ($3,800), Alex Verdugo ($3,600), and Nelson Cruz ($3,500) remain some of my favorite plays as well and I’ll add in Austin Hays ($3,700) and Ryan Mountcastle ($2,800).
Walker Buehler is my SP1 on both sites and although he probably won’t go very deep Spencer Strider could rack up enough strikeouts to still be worth his under $7k price tag on both sites.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn