MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 6/28/22
Big 14 game main slate on FanDuel today and 15 games on DraftKings as they are including game two of the MIN/CLE doubleheader. We have great weather across the country and wind blowing out in Coors so maybe the Dodgers will score a run today!
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
No rain to worry about today and great hitting weather everywhere with the best conditions for CIN/CHC with 10mph wind out to center and high 70s and LAD/COL will see ~9mph wind out to center with temps in the 80’s. Pretty much every other game not in a dome will see temps in the mid 70s to low 80s with the dome games being BOS/TOR, MIL/TBR, SDP/ARI, and BAL/SEA.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for LAD/COL are +17.1% while total runs for CIN/CHC are +29.1%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Kolten Wong and Yoan Moncada are expected to come off the IL and start today but Ronald Acuna could be out awhile after he was unable to put weight on his foot after fouling a ball off the top of it. The suspended Mariners are all appealing so they should remain available tonight and newly acquired Carlos Santana could also be in the SEA lineup today.
The Dodgers stunk it up yesterday getting CGSO by Kuhl and I’m chalking that up more to them traveling cross-country after an 11-inning game playing in altitude than Kuhl being an ace so hopefully after a good night’s rest they show up today and actually get close to their 6.5+ run total as they are again my favorite stack of the day. Michael Wacha is a reverse splits pitcher allowing righties to hit almost 100 points better than lefties and the Jays are one of the most righty-heavy lineup in baseball so they are my next favorite stack especially at their FD prices. We have warm and humid conditions in Wrigley with 10mph wind blowing out so both teams make for strong GPP stacks but for cash games I will pick and choose hitters based on salary and positional needs but I don’t want to go too heavy on either offense as the pitching is solid for both CIN and CHC. Other stacks I like taking a shot on are TEX, NYY, PIT, WSH, and STL.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with a few value guys standing out to me in great hitting conditions with Joey Votto ($2,600), Rafael Ortega ($2,200), and Juan Yepez ($2,400) as they all have the platoon advantage, are all coming off big games, and all will allow you to fit in a few studs you want along with a top pitcher. Chris Taylor ($3,200) is hitting cleanup tonight at a great price and Trayce Thompson ($2,500) is hitting 7th and I will likely use both in my main build as I want some LAD exposure with the platoon advantage against the lefty Freeland and their salaries are my favorite way to go especially if you don’t want to pay $4.5k+ for Freeman or Trea. I also want TOR exposure and the salaries of George Springer ($3,500) and Bo Bichette ($3,300) are standing out as must-plays for me and if you want a 3rd Jay I like the price of Teoscar Hernandez ($3,200). Some more value bats to consider include Ramon Laureano ($2,500), Lane Thomas ($2,700), Dylan Carlson ($2,600), Josh Smith ($2,200), Kole Calhoun ($2,300), Maikel Franco ($2,400), and Yoan Moncada ($2,500).
Looking at DraftKings the best value of the day is looking like Trayce Thompson at $2,000 and Chris Taylor is the next cheapest Dodger to consider at $4,500. I still really like the prices of Joey Votto ($3,400), Rafael Ortega ($2,900), and Juan Yepez ($3,900) and I’m going to include Michael Chavis ($2,000) and Josh Smith ($2,400) as top value options. For TOR I’d consider Springer ($4,900) or Chapman ($3,700) but I likely won’t spend up on the other options for them. Other value bats I like are Diego Castillo ($2,100), Lane Thomas ($3,300), Steven Kwan ($3,000), Franmil Reyes ($2,700), Nate Lowe ($3,200), Vinnie Pasquantino ($2,000), Lourdes Gurriel ($3,200), Maikel Franco ($2,200), and Yoan Moncada ($2,500).
Carlos Rodon is the clear SP1 on both sites today at home against Detroit and I also really like Zach Wheeler especially with Acuna out for ATL and I can’t blame anyone for using Charlie Morton averaging around 10 K’s over his last three starts and PHI is without Harper. There are a few really cheap options to consider as well in JP Sears, Keegan Thompson, Ross Stripling, and Braxton Garrett.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn