MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 6/6/2022
We have a small 6-game slate to start off the week but rain could make this a 5 or 4 game slate so be sure to track weather news and try to use guys in safe-weather games in cash games if possible.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
ARI/CIN is the most likeliest to get PPD with rain and storms from first pitch to midnight so I’m going to consider this game doubtful in my picks. TEX/CLE is going to be close depending if heavy rain holds north of CLE but if the initial storm line doesn’t hold north we could see a mid-game delay, early postponement, or possibly no game at all so this one is looking pretty risky especially for the pitchers. TOR/KCR should be fine with a low chance of a pop-up storm causing a delay.
UPDATE: TEX/CLE has been PPD
BOS/LAA has wind of ~6mph out to center while TOR/KCR and NYM/SDP have slight breezes from left to right and SEA/HOU is in a dome.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for TEX/CLE are +23.4% while total runs for TEX/CLE are +31.1%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Jackie Bradley is back with the team after the birth of his daughter so Jarren Duran is likely heading back to AAA while J.D. Martinez should be back in there after a rest day yesterday. With Taylor Ward on the IL it looks like Matt Duffy is the regular leadoff hitter now and Jo Adell should get most of the RF starts for now and after homering yesterday we should see Ezequiel Duran continue to start for TEX for minimum price on both sites.
The Blue Jays are my top stack today with a team total around 5.3 facing the lefty Lynch who has allowed 12 ER over his last 3 appearances. The Angels are my next favorite stack at home against Wacha who doesn’t strikeout many guys with just 10 total K’s over his last four starts and after TOR and LAA I like BOS a bit while HOU and NYM are both facing tough lefties but can always put up a crooked number and should be lower-owned today.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel Matt Duffy ($2,200) is a solid value play hitting leadoff that will help you stack the expensive Blue Jays hitters and speaking of I will likely go with Alejandro Kirk ($2,800) over one of the top four expensive TOR bats as he is just too cheap for how hot he’s been at the plate. Mike Trout is 0 for his last 26 which should continue to make his ownership lower and lower but I think tonight he breaks out of the slump so I will be on him for just $4k while Shohei Ohtani ($4,000), Jared Walsh ($3,400), and the previously mentioned Matt Duffy ($2,200) make for a very strong stack. Some other cheap FD bats I’m considering are Matt Chapman ($3,000), Salvador Perez ($3,000), Kyle Isbel ($2,300), J.D. Davis ($2,300) and Mark Canha ($2,700).
Looking at DraftKings Matt Duffy ($2,500) remains a top value play and the first guy I’m locking in as value is hard come by today. Teoscar Hernandez ($4,200), Alejandro Kirk ($4,500), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4,900) and George Springer ($5,000) are my favorite Blue Jays for the price and Jared Walsh is going to be hard to fade at 1B for just $3,600. Other DK bats that are looking solid for the price include Yulieski Gurriel ($2,900), Kyle Isbel ($2,700), J.D. Davis ($2,700), and Mark Canha ($2,900).
Cristian Javier, Carlos Carrasco, and Blake Snell are my top pitchers today and for the price discount I’m currently leaning Blake Snell as my SP1 on both sites. Robbie Ray is the wild card today as he can always go off for 10+ strikeouts but he has a very tough matchup in Houston so he’s only a GPP play for me.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn