MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 8/17/22
Nine games on today’s main slate and pretty safe weather across the board.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
NYM/ATL could have some storms mid-game that might cause a delay but it’s too early to tell for sure so make sure to check on this game throughout the day and TBR/NYY has scattered showers around the park early and a late start is possible but the game should play fine after. BOS/PIT also has some scattered storms in the general area but models have the ballpark being clear of it but still worth double checking again before lock. Wind shouldn’t be much of a factor today along with heat as pretty much every outdoor game is in the mid to low 70s or under and today’s dome games are OAK/TEX & LAD/MIL.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for COL/STL are -17.1% while total runs for HOU/CHW are +9.1%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
The Yankees made some moves today promoting Oswaldo Cabrera and Estevan Florial so it’s looking like DJ LeMahieu is heading to the IL as Cabrera is a 2B/SS and Florial will help in the outfield. The Mets are also promoting an infielder in 3B Brett Baty with Guillorme and Escobar’s injuries and Tomas Nido will miss the Braves series on the covid list so McCann and Perez will handle the C duties. The A’s promoted righties David MacKinnon and Shea Langeliers and against the lefty Ragans I’d expect both to be in the lineup today while I wouldn’t expect to see Aledmys Diaz or Ketel Marte dealing with various injuries but Eddie Rosario and Josh Naylor will return to the ATL and CLE lineups. Ke’Bryan Hayes went on the IL yesterday so Padlo and Castro will cover the 3B spot for now and Luis Robert will need at least another game off before he’s ready to return.
The Rangers and Guardians are my top stacks today while the Giants, Dodgers, and Cardinals are other stacks I like for GPPs.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m just going to keep using Marcus Semien as long as he’s $2,400 and the Rangers currently have the highest team total of the slate making him even more of a lock play for me and sticking with TEX I think Nate Lowe ($2,900) is an excellent value play hitting 3rd currently on a 7-game hitting streak. Cal Quantrill has been great over his last couple of starts but I’d still look at DET for some extreme value bats in Kerry Carpenter ($2,000), Harold Castro ($2,200), Victor Reyes ($2,200), and for a bit more Javier Baez ($2,700) to help fill in some positions and on the other side of that game for CLE I’m liking Amed Rosario ($3,100), Oscar Gonzalez ($2,700), and Owen Miller ($2,500) with the platoon advantages for cheap. Speaking of cheap the Cardinals have a few guys I’m considering in Lars Nootbaar ($2,600) if he hits leadoff today, Nolan Gorman ($3,100), and Brendan Donovan ($2,500). More value bats I like today are Brandon Lowe ($2,800), Michael Chavis ($2,400), Daniel Vogelbach ($2,800), Jonah Bride ($2,200), Leody Taveras ($2,600), and Brandon Belt ($2,600).
Looking at DraftKings if Lars Nootbaar ($2,300) hits leadoff for STL today he will be my top value play and right behind him Michael Chavis ($2,000) is a great value option with the platoon advantage on Hill but for just $1k more I will be on Nate Lowe ($3,000) for value at the 1B spot. If newly promoted Oswaldo Cabrera ($2,000) is in the Yankees lineup today and hitting decently high in the order he will definitely be in consideration at minimum price while the Tigers have a trio of minimum price options in Reyes, H. Castro, and Carpenter and at catcher I’d consider Meibrys Viloria for min price hitting 5th today. The A’s are full of cheap options if you need to fill a spot with their entire projected lineup outside of Murphy for $2.3k or less with Jonah Bride ($2,000) and Chad Pinder ($2,000) being my favorite targets. Some other plays I like for the price include Brandon Belt ($2,900), Mike Yastrzemski ($3,100), Leody Taveras ($2,600), Oscar Gonzalez ($3,500), Owen Miller ($3,100), Alex Verdugo ($2,900), Brendan Donovan ($3,000), and David Peralta ($3,200).
Max Scherzer is my SP1 on both sites as he’s just dominated Atlanta with 20 strikeouts and 1 ER over 14 IP against them this season. On DK I’m going cheap for my SP2 as Jordan Montgomery is only $6,900 coming off an 8 strikeout gem against the Brewers and now he gets an easier matchup with COL who have a projected run total under 3 currently. For GPPs I like Rodon, Valdez, Gonsolin, Quantrill, and German.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn