MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 8/31/22
There are nine games on today’s main slate to close out August with great weather across the country.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat. We always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
Rain shouldn’t be a factor anywhere, while COL/ATL is looking like the best hitting weather with 80+ degree temps and 5-8mph winds blowing out to center. NYY/LAA will also be a hot one with temps in the 90s and a slight breeze out to right. SEA/DET will have temps in the high 70s with 9-13mph winds out to left. OAK/WSH is looking at temps in the mid to high 70s with a slight cross breeze from left to right. LAD/NYM will see temps in the high 70s with ~10mph winds out to right. BOS/MIN will also have temps in the mid to high 70s but a slight breeze blowing in. KCR/CHW will have mid 70s temps and ~7mph wind blowing out.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for SEA/DET are +8.4%, while total runs for OAK/WSH are +5.3%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
There are a few guys who have missed time that have a chance to play today, but for now we’re leaving them out of projections until they do return in Luis Robert, Nick Castellanos, and Jorge Polanco but Ronald Acuna will return for Atlanta. Willson Contreras had to exit early yesterday with ankle/foot soreness that he’s been dealing with for a while, so I’d expect Higgins or Gomes to catch for the Cubs today. In other Chicago catcher news, the White Sox will get Yasmani Grandal back from the IL.
The Braves really disappointed yesterday scoring just two runs, but I’m going back to them as my top stack today in great hitting weather against another mediocre righty in Feltner who’s allowed 17 ER over his last five starts and has only one game in that stretch with more than three strikeouts. The White Sox had gone 14 games in a row without scoring over five runs before yesterday, where they scored seven in a losing effort. I think they can keep it rolling today against the lefty Bubic, who has really struggled over his last three starts with 14 ER and just 10 total K’s so CHW are my second favorite stack today. Toronto and Seattle are my third and fourth top stacks and a few other teams I’d take a chance on are Oakland, Minnesota, Kansas City, and Philadelphia.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m locking in Austin Riley ($3,900) and Matt Olson ($4,000) for the big bats on my favorite stack and next I’m looking at the White Sox who offer some great value as no one in their lineup is over $3,200 and I will almost certainly have at least 2-3 bats of their bats with Elvis Andrus ($2,200), AJ Pollock ($2,500), and Eloy Jimenez ($3,000) being my favorite plays for the price. Michael Wacha has been pretty solid this season but I still like some Twins bats for more value plays especially Carlos Correa ($3,100) as Wacha has reverse splits so Jose Miranda ($2,800) is a fine value option as well. Meanwhile Max Kepler ($2,500) and Nick Gordon ($2,200) are still crazy cheap if you need to fill another spot. More cheap bats I like for the price today are Luis Garcia ($2,200), Lourdes Gurriel ($2,800), Ty France ($2,900), Carlos Santana ($2,300), Eric Haase ($2,500), Kyle Garlick ($2,3000, and Nick Pratto ($2,200).
Looking at DraftKings I like starting with Michael Harris ($4,400) and Dansby Swanson ($5,400) for ATL exposure as I’m going to go cheap at 1B with Nick Pratto ($2,000) instead of Olson and if you can fit in Austin Riley ($5,600) or Ronald Acuna ($5,900) I’d go for it. Elvis Andrus ($2,500) and AJ Pollock ($3,300) remains my favorite CHW plays for the price and again I will likely use one or two more from Vaughn ($3,700), Abreu ($4,100), and Jimenez ($3,900) depending on positional needs. One of my favorite “extreme” value plays on DK is Nick Gordon at just $2,200 coming off a monster 29 FP game while Jose Miranda ($3,600) and Gio Urshela ($2,900) are solid options if you want to take advantage of the Wacha reverse splits. Other value guys on DK that I’m considering include Luis Garcia ($3,800), Eric Haase ($3,300), Kyle Garlick ($2,800), Emmanuel Rivera ($2,800), and Stone Garrett ($2,100).
It’s really close between Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole for SP1 honors today, but I think I’m leaning with Cole as you get a price discount and better matchup against LAA. The Dodgers lineup always scares me no matter who they’re facing but I will probably still try to fit both in on DK. Kyle Wright is my favorite GPP pitcher today as most of the high-priced exposure will certainly go to Cole and deGrom while Ryan, Gonzales, Lynn, and Falter are my other favorite GPP plays.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn