MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 9/7/22
Just six games on today’s main slate and we should be safe from any rain issues.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
TOR/BAL will see rain before the game but it should clear out by first pitch so at worst there could be a short delay to start the game but it should play fine.
CLE/KC and ARI/SD will have similar temps in the high 70s to low 80s while CIN/CHC, TOR/BAL, and WSH/STL will be a bit cooler with temps in the mid to low 70s and wind should be pretty negligible in all the games with TOR/BAL seeing the most at just 4-6mph blowing in.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for ARI/SD are +19.7% while total runs for CIN/CHC are -10.2%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Willson Contreras landed on the IL yesterday so Higgins and Gomes will handle the catcher spot for the Cubs and Nick Senzel was scratched yesterday with an ankle sprain and remains out today. Wil Myers was able to return from his neck injury yesterday and with Brandon Drury on the concussion IL he should start most days now either at 1B, DH, or OF. That’s about it as far as injury news so we’ll see if any big names get rest days as lineups come out and Teoscar Hernandez is going on the paternity list so he’ll be out today and likely another game or two.
The Astros are my top stack today at home against the lefty Ragans who has as many walks allowed as total strikeouts over his last three starts including 9 ER over that span. The Cardinals and Padres are my next favorite stacks and to round out my top five I’ll go with the Cubs and Blue Jays.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I like starting with the trio of Jose Altuve ($4,100), Alex Bregman ($3,500), and Jeremy Pena ($2,700) for exposure to my top stack all with the platoon advantage and for the price I prefer Kyle Tucker ($3,400) over Yordan Alvarez ($3,900) if you want the full stack.
STL and SD are where I’m looking next for some nice value bats in Brendan Donovan ($2,400), Corey Dickerson ($2,200), Ha-seong Kim ($2,700), Josh Bell ($2,800), and Wil Myers ($2,600) and using 2-3 from that group should allow you to fit at least one or two of Goldschmidt, Arenado, and Machado. The Cubs also have some solid value options with the platoon advantage against Minor in Seiya Suzuki ($2,800), Franmil Reyes ($2,800), Ian Happ ($3,100), Nico Hoerner ($2,700), and for really cheap Nick Madrigal ($2,200).
Some other bats I like for the price include Alejandro Kirk ($2,900), Terry Friedl ($2,600), Kyle Farmer ($2,900), Spencer Steer ($2,300), Josh Naylor ($2,700), Andres Gimenez ($2,700), MJ Melendez ($2,500), and Jurickson Profar ($2,600).
Looking at DraftKings the Astros are priced up pretty significantly compared to FD but I still like Jeremy Pena at $4,200 and if you want to spend up on another HOU bat I’d go with Jose Altuve ($5,900). The Padres are also a bit too pricey for me compared to FD especially Machado at $6k but Kim ($4,500), Bell ($4,800), and Profar ($4,200) are still high upside plays to consider if you have the salary and I will only target Wil Myers ($3,300) for value if he hits 6th or higher in the order.
Lars Nootbaar ($3,300), Brendan Donovan ($2,800), and Corey Dickerson ($2,500) are where I’m first going for value bats and the CIN/CHC game also has a lot of value options with guys like Franmil Reyes ($2,600), Nick Madrigal ($2,400), Terry Friedl ($2,200), Spencer Steer ($2,400), and Jake Fraley ($2,800). Nick Pratto ($2,700), and Michael Massey ($2,500) can also be in consideration for value options if you need to fill a 1B/2B spot.
Yu Darvish is my SP1 on both sites but Cristian Javier isn’t too far behind as far as upside goes while Alek Manoah and Jordan Montgomery are my favorite GPP options.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn