MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 9/14/22
Eight games on today’s main slate with great weather across the country.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
Every outdoor game today will be in the 70s and NYY/BOS and CHC/NYM will both see ~9mph winds out to right while KCR/MIN will see 12mph winds blowing in. TBR/TOR, OAK/TEX, & LAD/ARI are today’s dome games.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on today’s weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for MIL/STL are -18.7% while total runs for NYY/BOS are +11.8%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Brandon Lowe landed on the IL yesterday so Aranda, Walls, and Paredes will all help cover the 2B spot. Nelson Cruz left yesterday’s game early with blurry vision in this left eye and will sit today with Voit getting the DH spot. With Madrigal on the IL and a lefty opponent Christopher Morel hit leadoff for the Cubs today and Corey Seager should be back in there after getting a day off yesterday and it will be interesting to see how high Mark Mathias hits in the order against another lefty after going nuclear yesterday with 2 HRs from the 2-hole. Alejandro Kirk and Teoscar Hernandez are getting days off along with Cedric Mullins and Trevor Story. The Dodgers are resting Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman, and Justin Turner.
The Dodgers are my top stack today (they are not my top stack anymore with the lineup they put out) against the mediocre righty Davies but the Rangers are close behind them for a favorite stack at home against the low strikeout lefty Sears. Rounding at my top five stacks are the Orioles, Yankees, and Mets.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for today’s confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel Giancarlo Stanton is still too cheap at $2,800 and I like pairing him with Gleyber Torres also at $2,800. My top overall play of the slate for the price is Max Muncy at just $2,500 and I also really like Chris Taylor ($2,700) hitting leadoff today, Trayce Thompson ($2,500) hitting cleanup, and Joey Gallo ($2,100) hitting 5th.
Next I’m looking at Rangers and Orioles bats both facing mediocre lefties. For cheap I like Mark Mathias ($2,900), Josh Jung ($2,800), Austin Hays ($2,600), Anthony Santander ($2,900), and Ryan Mountcastle ($2,700) and for even cheaper we have Ryan McKenna ($2,100) and Jesus Aguilar ($2,100) if you need extreme salary relief. I also really like Marcus Semien ($3,700) and Adolis Garcia ($3,500) who are both swinging really hot bats so I’d try to fit at least one of them in your main build.
Some more bats I like for the price include Mark Canha ($3,100), Mark Vientos ($2,100), Darin Ruf ($2,600), Luke Voit ($2,700), Luis Garcia ($2,600), Josh Donaldson ($2,400), Oswaldo Cabrera ($2,200), Luis Arraez ($2,700), Will Smith ($3,000), and Ketel Marte ($2,700).
Looking at DraftKings, I’m locking in Josh Jung ($2,200) and Mark Mathias ($2,600) as they are just way too cheap for the matchup today. I will likely go with a full righty Rangers stack and include Marcus Semien ($4,900) and Adolis Garcia ($4,700) in my main build. The Dodgers are resting a bunch of their top bats so Chris Taylor ($3,500) becomes a great value play hitting leadoff along with Trayce Thompson ($2,500) and Joey Gallo ($3,300) hitting 4th and 5th.
The Orioles are full of value with Ryan Mountcastle ($3,800) being my favorite bat for the price while Ryan McKenna ($2,000), Ramon Urias ($3,300), Jesus Aguilar ($2,500), and Austin Hays ($3,100) are all in play if you need to fill a spot or two for cheap. I’m not a big fan of targeting bats against Greinke but the Twins do have a lot of value today in Luis Arraez ($3,500), Jose Miranda ($3,200), Gio Urshela ($2,600), and Nick Gordon ($3,000) so keep them in mind if you need another cheap bat to round out a lineup.
Other value options to consider today are Lane Thomas ($2,700), Luke Voit ($2,900), Luis Garcia ($3,400), Oswaldo Cabrera ($2,900), Mark Vientos ($2,000), Darin Ruf ($3,000), Vimael Machin ($2,000), and Corbin Carroll ($3,000).
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn