MLB Grind Down: Friday, April 11th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Toronto at Baltimore
| Toronto | Baltimore |
| Dustin McGowan | Vegas Moneyline | Bud Norris | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | BAL (-130) | RIGHT | 8.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.191 | 0.687 | 0.304 | 13.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.315 | 0.882 | 0.387 | 16.1% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.189 | 0.508 | 0.260 | 31.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.241 | 0.617 | 0.284 | 23.1% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP  | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Dustin McGowan – McGowan got off to a rocky start this season by giving up 8 hits and 4 earned runs in less than 3 innings of work. He is a 32 year-old pitcher that has only made 5 starts since 2011. While he was very effective out of the bullpen last season, being a starter is a completely different task. Today he faces the tough Orioles lineup in Camden Yards. McGowan has limited upside and a bad matchup. That’s not a combination that you want to target. Rating = 3
- Chris Tillman – The table above shows Norris as the starter, but Tillman will draw the start tonight against the Blue Jays. Tillman posted a 3.71 ERA with a K/9 of 7.8. Tillman pitched well in his first start of the season, but does have to face a tough Blue Jays lineup tonight. I think he carries some value as a deep tournament play, but should not be used in cash games. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
- Melky Cabrera – Cabrera is really swinging the bat well right now. This season he is hitting .333 with 4 HR’s. He also has the splits in his favor as he is a switch hitter and will hit from the left side of the plate against Tillman.
Baltmiore
- Chris Davis – Davis is still looking for his first HR of the season, but he is batting .303 with 6 RBI’s this season. Davis has a great matchup against McGowan who really struggled against the LH batters of the Yankees in his first start. Davis is my “Dong of the Day.”
Miami at Philadelphia
| Miami | Philadelphia |
| Jose Fernandez | Vegas Moneyline | A.J. Burnett | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | MIA (-120) | RIGHT | 6.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.188 | 0.540 | 0.256 | 25.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.263 | 0.711 | 0.335 | 22.5% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.175 | 0.483 | 0.224 | 29.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.203 | 0.543 | 0.244 | 29.6% |
| Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jose Fernandez – This game should be a pitcher’s duel. Fernandez and Burnett own two of the highest K-rates in baseball. Fernandez already has 17 K’s over only 12 innings in his first two starts this season. Fernandez did have his struggles on the road last season as his ERA and WHIP both took a spike in his road starts. That said, he is still one of the best pitchers in baseball and makes a solid play against this Phillies lineup. Rating = 9
- A.J. Burnett – You may think that I am crazy, but I actually think Burnett will outscore Fernandez tonight. Burnett has always pitched much better at home and last season he posted a 2.37 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP and a K/9 of 10.5 at PNC Park with the Pirates. I expect him to post similar numbers at Citizens Bank Park this season. This Marlins lineup was dominated by Stephen Strasburg yesterday and now face another hard throwing RH pitcher. Burnett may not be the best play on FD with the win weighed so heavily, but is in play for cash games on the other major sites. Rating = 9
Batter Grind Down
Miami/Philadelphia
- The run total for this game is set at only 6.5 runs. With two of the best pitchers facing off tonight, you should avoid all hitters in this game.
Boston at NY Yankees
| Boston | NY Yankees |
| Jon Lester | Vegas Moneyline | CC Sabathia | Vegas Over/Under |
| LEFT | BOS (-120) | LEFT | 8.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.237 | 0.670 | 0.294 | 25.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.242 | 0.648 | 0.293 | 30.0% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.257 | 0.702 | 0.317 | 17.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.281 | 0.798 | 0.352 | 16.0% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs L | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs L |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jon Lester – Of the two pitchers in this game, Lester gets the edge over CC. That said, neither make for a great cash game play as there are typically a lot of runs scored between the Yankees and Red Sox. Lester has looked good in his first two starts and has thrown at least 104 pitches in each. Last season against the Yankees, Lester posted a 3.29 ERA. That said, last year’s Yankees’ lineup could not hit LH pitching and they have cured that with some major offseason acquisitions. Rating = 5
- CC Sabathia – Sabathia’s two starts have looked very similar. He pitched 6 innings in both, struck out 6 batters in both, and gave up at least 4 earned runs in both. Sabathia has lost velocity and can’t blow it past hitters anymore. He really has to hit his spots to be an effective pitcher and that’s hard to rely on at this point. CC really struggled in his 5 starts against the Red Sox last season with a 7.22 ERA while giving up a .339 batting average. He will likely struggle with this lineup again tonight. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
Boston
- Dustin Pedroia – CC gave up a .352 wOBA to RH batters last season and Pedroia is one of the best hitters in baseball against LH pitching. Last season he hit for a .354 average and a .937 OPS against LH pitching.
New York
- Alfonso Soriano – The Yankees brought Soriano over last season to help the lineup hit LH pitching. Soriano hits a much higher average and has a much higher OPS against LH pitching compared to his numbers against RH pitching. He is cheap across the industry and will be batting right in the heart of the lineup.
- Carlos Beltran – Beltran is off to a typical Beltran start. He is batting .273 with a HR and 4 RBI’s early in the season. Beltran has slightly more power from the left side of the plate, but has still hit LH pitching at a .270 clip over the last 3 seasons and will be batting clean-up again tonight.
Tampa Bay at Cincinnati
| Tampa Bay | Cincinnati |
| David Price | Vegas Moneyline | Johnny Cueto | Vegas Over/Under |
| LEFT | TBR (-102) | RIGHT | 7.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.189 | 0.483 | 0.220 | 23.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.204 | 0.561 | 0.258 | 19.3% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.271 | 0.708 | 0.311 | 19.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.213 | 0.633 | 0.285 | 22.6% |
| Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs L |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- David Price – This is s nice matchup for Price because the two most powerful bats on the Reds hit from the left side of the plate and Price held LH batters to a .220 wOBA last season. The concern here is that he will be pitching in the Great American Ballpark which gave up the 2nd most HR’s of any ballpark last season. I still think Price is in play thanks to his K/9 of 7.3, but there are better options for cash games. Rating = 6
- Johnny Cueto – Cueto has looked dominant in his first two starts of the season and is pitching at home where he posted a 1.91 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP and a K/9 of 6.8. Cueto is in the same boat as price. I expect him to pitch well, but he may have a hard time picking up a win against Price. Rating = 7
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay/Cincinnati
- This is another game where the hitter options are few are far between. Neither offense is expected to do much damage and this could end up being a 2-1 ball game. Avoid all hitters here with these two pitchers on the mound.
Washington at Atlanta
| Washington | Atlanta |
| Tanner Roark | Vegas Moneyline | Julio Teheran | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | ATL (-120) | RIGHT | 7.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.263 | 0.631 | 0.288 | 13.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.289 | 0.811 | 0.359 | 17.8% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.157 | 0.348 | 0.160 | 24.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.204 | 0.553 | 0.262 | 26.0% |
| Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs R | Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Tanner Roark – Roark is a solid young pitcher that is making his 7th career start tonight. Last season he posted a 1.51 ERA with a K/9 of 6.8 (although some of his work was out of the bullpen). Turner Field is generally considered a pitcher’s park and Roark could make a nice play for GPP’s. Rating = 5
- Julio Teheran – Teheran has only picked up 8 K’s in his first two starts of the season, but I will be targeted Teheran more than any other pitcher tonight. He is one of the best young pitchers in baseball and he may go overlooked with all of the other top notch pitching options on the schedule. Teheran posted a 3.04 ERA with K/9 of 9.6 at home last season. I love his matchup against the Nats. Rating = 9
Batter Grind Down
Washington
- Bryce Harper – Teheran’s biggest weakness is LH batters as he gave up a .359 wOBA to LH batters last season. Harper is off to a slow start, but has plenty of speed and power and his price is depressed across the industry.
Atlanta
- Freddie Freeman – Freeman continues to rake early on in the season. He is batting .419 this season and has always hit RH pitching well. I don’t mind him at all against the young Roark.
MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2
