MLB Grind Down: Monday, July 18th - Page Three

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-07-18 18:18:50

Chicago White Sox at Seattle – 10:10 PM ET

Chicago White Sox					Seattle
			Chris Sale					Wade LeBlanc
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CWS -140					7.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.282	4	32.9%	4.7%	SP vs. Left	0.337	1	22.2%	5.6%
SP vs. Right	0.283	36	28.7%	5.1%	SP vs. Right	0.263	1	14.0%	4.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Sale
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,900	Salary:		$12,200
					FPPG:		42.8	FPPG:		23.2
					Pitcher Rating:		90.2	Pitcher Rank:		2
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	4	100.8	3.22	5.00	27.3%	5.5%	14.4%	45.7%	31.4%	37.5%
2016	18	106.4	3.56	3.38	24.7%	5.2%	10.6%	40.8%	36.7%	29.7%
2015	31	107.2	2.52	3.41	32.1%	4.9%	14.6%	42.6%	35.3%	25.1%

After that outing against the Braves before the All-Star break, Sale has to be itching to get back out on the mound. He allowed eight runs (all earned) in only five innings of work. The strangest part is that he went into that game in his best form of the season. He will look to bounce back tonight against the Mariners in Seattle. This isn’t a perfect matchup by any means, but Seattle is a mediocre offense against southpaws. Sale is one of my favorite GPP plays on the board tonight, as most people will gravitate to Jose Fernandez or Jon Lester at the top.

Wade LeBlanc
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$7,100
					FPPG:		23.3	FPPG:		12.5
					Pitcher Rating:		46.0	Pitcher Rank:		18
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	3	77.0	4.57	3.52	16.4%	4.9%	8.7%	41.7%	43.8%	29.2%
2016	3	77.0	4.56	3.52	16.4%	4.9%	8.7%	41.7%	43.8%	29.2%

In LeBlanc’s three starts this season, he has a 4.57 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.4%. He has never been a high strikeout pitcher and we shouldn’t expect that to change all of the sudden. He draws a decent matchup against the White Sox, but comes into the game as a sizable underdog at home. With Chris Sale pitching opposite him, run support could be limited.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have the sixth lowest run projection tonight, but have a better matchup than their total suggests. Since three starts is too small of a sample size to trust, we should look at LeBlanc’s career splits. Over the course of eight seasons, LeBlanc has allowed a .388 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .323 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

• White Sox Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.320 (15 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.153 (21 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 23.2% (21 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.05 (24 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.98 (17 of 22)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton, Todd Frazier, Brett Lawrie

Stackability – ORANGE

Seattle

The Mariners draw one of the worst matchups on the board tonight, so it’s no surprise that they have the third lowest run projection on the board. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, Chris Sale has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .283 wOBA. The only plus in this matchup is that Sale has allowed 36 home runs to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

• Mariners Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.316 (19 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.172 (10 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 21.2% (13 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.78 (9 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.52 (20 of 22)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Nelson Cruz

Stackability – RED

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