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MLB Grind Down: Monday, July 18th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-07-19 02:42:29

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in all formats, especially GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in a large tournament
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Baltimore at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Baltimore NY Yankees
baltimoremlb Kevin Gausman nyyankeesmlb Ivan Nova
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL -115 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.283 9 25.6% 6.2% SP vs. Left 0.380 16 10.6% 7.3%
SP vs. Right 0.360 23 18.7% 5.3% SP vs. Right 0.315 12 21.5% 6.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kevin Gausman
kevin-gausman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $8,100
FPPG: 26.5 FPPG: 14.2
Pitcher Rating: 63.9 Pitcher Rank: 9
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 4 104.5 3.23 4.18 24.8% 2.0% 12.0% 39.7% 34.2% 41.1%
2016 15 101.3 3.78 4.15 22.1% 5.1% 10.8% 43.9% 34.4% 31.1%
2015 17 110.4 3.69 4.25 21.9% 6.2% 10.9% 44.4% 38.1% 27.4%

Gausman has better peripheral statistics than his actual results. In 15 starts this season, he has a 3.78 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 5.1%. He has good velocity and good command, which can be rare for a starter. He checks into tonight’s game as a small favorite against the Yankees, who are ranked 22nd in team wOBA (.307) and 20th in team ISO (.151) against right-handed pitching this season. The two concerns with this matchup is that the Yankees have a low strikeout rate and that Gausman has to face them in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.

Ivan Nova
ivan-nova-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $6,200
FPPG: 19.8 FPPG: 9.3
Pitcher Rating: 50.4 Pitcher Rank: 12
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 4 84.0 4.00 6.41 20.2% 6.7% 7.1% 53.1% 31.3% 33.9%
2016 12 100.8 3.83 5.18 17.6% 4.9% 8.8% 55.7% 26.7% 33.3%
2015 17 89.9 4.58 5.07 15.3% 8.0% 7.8% 49.0% 31.7% 32.3%

Nova has been knocked around this season, but like Kevin Gausman, his peripheral statistics suggest some improvement moving forward. In 12 starts, he has a 3.83 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.6%. The main issue that I have with Nova is his low strikeout upside. The matchup needs to be close to perfect, as any mistake that he makes will be magnified. Given the fact that he is facing the talented Orioles’ offense, he is an easy fade in all league formats.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles are one of the best offenses in baseball. They are ranked second in team wOBA and first in team ISO against right-handed pitching. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against Ivan Nova, who has allowed a .380 wOBA to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons. During that stretch, Nova has also allowed nearly as many home runs (28) as he has starts (29).

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.341 0.210 0.300 OF $3,500 OF $4,500
2 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.377 0.239 0.390 2B $3,200 2B $4,300
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.383 0.239 0.216 3B $3,900 3B/SS $4,100
4 Chris Davis LEFT 0.390 0.316 0.290 1B $3,500 1B $4,300
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.351 0.210 0.467 OF $4,100 OF $5,000
6 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.326 0.167 0.145 C $3,500 C $3,800
7 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.270 0.117 0.456 SS $2,400 SS $3,200
8 Pedro Alvarez LEFT 0.346 0.248 0.517 3B $3,000 1B $3,900
9 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.269 0.072 0.244 OF $2,700 OF $2,600
Team Averages — 0.339 0.202 0.336 — — — —

Elite Plays – Chris Davis, Matt Wieters

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Jonathan Schoop, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – GREEN

NY Yankees

The Yankees continue to get love from the oddsmakers, largely in part thanks to the fact that people love to bet on New York. Despite ranking 20th or worse in team wOBA, team ISO, and runs scored per game, they continuously have a high implied team total. Their matchup tonight against Kevin Gausman doesn’t look great on paper, but New York does have the ninth highest total. The right-handed hitters have the big edge in this matchup, as Gausman has allowed a .360 wOBA and 23 home runs to righties over the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.329 0.140 0.334 OF $3,200 OF $4,700
2 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.312 0.106 0.286 OF $3,000 OF $4,100
3 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.354 0.206 0.287 OF $3,700 OF $3,200
4 Brian McCann LEFT 0.332 0.211 0.354 C $3,400 C $3,800
5 Mark Teixeira SWITCH 0.347 0.273 0.152 1B $2,400 1B $2,900
6 Alex Rodriguez RIGHT 0.323 0.197 0.221 3B $2,500 1B/3B $2,600
7 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.316 0.149 0.459 SS $2,700 SS $3,900
8 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.290 0.126 0.352 2B $2,600 2B $2,900
9 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.309 0.119 0.426 3B $2,400 3B $3,800
Team Averages — 0.324 0.170 0.319 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Brian McCann, Mark Teixeira

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Miami Philadelphia
miamimlb Jose Fernandez philadelphiamlb Aaron Nola
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIA -200 7.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.321 8 27.7% 8.5% SP vs. Left 0.327 10 18.2% 7.4%
SP vs. Right 0.206 3 40.2% 4.6% SP vs. Right 0.287 11 28.1% 4.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Fernandez
jose-fernandez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $12,000 Salary: $13,800
FPPG: 45.9 FPPG: 25.9
Pitcher Rating: 99.7 Pitcher Rank: 1
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 4 100.0 2.48 2.36 34.0% 5.7% 13.5% 52.5% 22.0% 27.4%
2016 17 100.1 2.58 2.52 36.6% 7.4% 14.6% 42.4% 30.4% 32.3%
2015 11 90.2 2.77 2.92 29.8% 5.3% 13.3% 40.1% 31.1% 29.4%

Fernandez is one of those pitchers that I try to watch every time he takes the mound. Not only does he have incredible stuff, but he has a demeanor on the mound unlike anyone in baseball. He is the premier play at pitcher tonight, as he takes on the Phillies. If you look at his pitching table above, there isn’t a single statistic that isn’t above-average. The one that stands out for our purposes is his 36.6% strikeout rate. He should be able to dominate a Phillies’ offense that is ranked 26th in team wOBA (.300) against right-handed pitching.

Aaron Nola
aaron-nola-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $8,300
FPPG: 30.4 FPPG: 16.0
Pitcher Rating: 67.5 Pitcher Rank: 6
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 3 81.0 3.60 13.50 20.3% 6.3% 8.6% 58.5% 17.1% 38.6%
2016 17 91.4 3.17 4.69 25.5% 5.5% 9.6% 55.1% 23.9% 26.6%
2015 13 85.9 3.66 3.59 21.4% 6.0% 8.6% 47.6% 32.4% 28.8%

Nola is a talented, young pitcher that is having his best season in the majors. His peripheral statistics suggest that he could end up having a better second half of the year, as his SIERA is a full run and a half lower than his ERA is this season. The strikeouts are obviously a plus, as he boasts a k-rate above 25%. He checks into tonight’s game as a huge underdog at home, but that has more to do with who is pitching opposite him than it does his matchup. The Marlins are a mediocre offense against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins may be large favorites tonight, but they don’t really stand out as elite plays in daily fantasy. They come into the game with the ninth lowest team total on the board and their matchup against Aaron Nola is less than ideal. Giancarlo Stanton has been red hot over the last few weeks, but Nola has held right-handed hitters to a .287 wOBA. If you are targeting any Marlins, the left-handed bats have the edge in this matchup.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.317 0.126 0.300 C $2,900 C $4,800
2 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.309 0.093 0.410 3B $2,900 3B $3,500
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.372 0.154 0.380 OF $3,100 OF $5,100
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.355 0.261 0.565 OF $3,100 OF $4,900
5 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.309 0.142 0.280 OF $3,500 OF $3,500
6 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.374 0.187 0.238 2B $2,800 2B $4,000
7 Chris Johnson RIGHT 0.245 0.086 0.243 1B $2,100 1B/3B $2,500
8 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.272 0.084 0.215 SS $2,500 SS $3,000
9 Jose Fernandez RIGHT 0.229 0.111 0.000 P $12,000 P $13,800
Team Averages — 0.309 0.138 0.292 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton, Derek Dietrich (FD)

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia

If you look at their team statistics below, you will see that the Phillies are ranked below the major league average in every single category. They draw the worst matchup on the schedule tonight and have the lowest implied team total on the board. The Phillies’ hitters can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments, as they could struggle to get anything going against Jose Fernandez.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.353 0.145 0.232 OF $3,100 OF $3,600
2 Peter Bourjos RIGHT 0.289 0.157 0.320 OF $2,400 OF $2,800
3 Cody Asche LEFT 0.311 0.174 0.267 OF $2,900 OF $2,700
4 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.348 0.211 0.403 3B $2,200 3B $3,900
5 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.276 0.217 0.635 1B $2,500 1B $2,800
6 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.296 0.150 0.342 C $2,600 C $3,000
7 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.296 0.087 0.296 2B $2,300 2B $2,700
8 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.290 0.124 0.289 SS $2,700 SS $3,100
9 Aaron Nola RIGHT 0.107 0.026 P $7,700 P $8,300
Team Averages — 0.285 0.143 0.348 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Minnesota at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Minnesota Detroit
minnesotamlb Ricky Nolasco detroitmlb Matt Boyd
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET -146 10.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.317 7 18.2% 6.4% SP vs. Left 0.434 6 13.8% 6.4%
SP vs. Right 0.372 11 19.5% 5.0% SP vs. Right 0.366 16 18.5% 8.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ricky Nolasco
ricky-nolasco-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $6,100
FPPG: 24.4 FPPG: 11.9
Pitcher Rating: 39.8 Pitcher Rank: 21
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 100.6 5.08 5.46 12.8% 6.0% 7.8% 43.8% 39.0% 34.3%
2016 18 98.4 4.23 5.22 18.4% 4.8% 9.4% 43.0% 38.7% 34.2%
2015 8 83.1 4.10 6.75 20.2% 8.1% 9.3% 40.7% 31.7% 26.0%

Nolasco struggled in his five starts before the break, posting a 5.08 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 12.8%. He is having a down season overall and now he has to face the Tigers in Detroit. Typically, right-handed hitters have more success against Detroit than lefties do, but Nolasco is a reverse-splits pitcher. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .372 wOBA and 11 home runs to right-handed hitters. He grades out as the second worst pitching option in the slate.

Matt Boyd
matt-boyd-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $4,800
FPPG: 16.9 FPPG: 8.3
Pitcher Rating: 42.5 Pitcher Rank: 20
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 2 75.0 4.70 8.31 17.5% 5.0% 4.7% 30.0% 50.0% 25.8%
2016 6 96.5 4.75 5.77 18.0% 8.7% 7.8% 37.4% 42.1% 30.9%
2015 12 83.6 4.83 7.53 17.1% 7.9% 8.2% 31.9% 51.9% 34.0%

Boyd hasn’t had a lot of success at the major league level. In 18 starts in the last two season, he has a SIERA over 4.75 with a strikeout rate under 18%. Those numbers aren’t exactly promising, especially when you throw in the fact that his ERA is right around 7.00. He may be favored tonight, but he carries very little fantasy appeal. The Twins are ranked eighth in team wOBA (.333) and second in team ISO (.192) against southpaws.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins may be underdogs tonight on the road, but they still have one of the highest run projections of any team on the schedule. They mash left-handed pitching as a team and they draw a favorable matchup against Matt Boyd. The sample size is fairly small (18 starts), but Boyd has allowed a .434 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .366 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.341 0.225 0.293 SS $3,700 3B/SS $5,000
2 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.372 0.165 0.404 OF $3,200 OF $4,200
3 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.400 0.267 0.343 OF $4,000 3B/OF $4,400
4 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.364 0.254 0.262 2B $4,100 2B $4,900
5 Max Kepler LEFT 0.314 0.185 0.296 OF $3,000 OF $3,900
6 Kennys Vargas SWITCH 0.442 0.197 0.554 1B $3,000 1B $3,600
7 Danny Santana SWITCH 0.248 0.080 0.308 OF $2,200 OF $3,500
8 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.309 0.118 0.410 C $2,400 C $3,800
9 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.197 0.099 0.362 OF $2,700 OF $2,900
Team Averages — 0.332 0.177 0.359 — — — —

Elite Plays – Miguel Sano, Brian Dozier

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Robbie Grossman, Max Kepler, Kennys Vargas

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit

The Tigers have the highest implied run total of any team that is playing outside of Coors Field. They are projected to score 5.27 runs, which is significantly higher than their season average. They draw a favorable matchup against Ricky Nolasco and they get to face him at home in the hitter-friendly Comerica Park. In the last two seasons combined, Nolasco has allowed a .372 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.338 0.152 0.392 2B $3,700 2B $4,700
2 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.309 0.083 0.309 OF $3,100 OF $3,700
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.403 0.212 0.225 1B $3,600 1B $4,600
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.300 0.153 0.199 C $3,100 1B $3,700
5 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.322 0.180 0.472 3B $3,300 3B $4,700
6 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.332 0.193 0.294 OF $2,300 OF $3,300
7 Tyler Collins LEFT 0.309 0.158 0.343 OF $2,100 OF $2,600
8 James McCann RIGHT 0.245 0.072 0.188 C $2,200 C $2,800
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.286 0.057 0.256 SS $2,200 SS $2,400
Team Averages — 0.316 0.140 0.298 — — — —

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Cameron Maybin, Victor Martinez, Justin Upton

Stackability – GREEN

Atlanta at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Atlanta Cincinnati
atlantamlb Matt Wisler cincinnatimlb Brandon Finnegan
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CIN -125 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.382 19 12.3% 11.0% SP vs. Left 0.327 4 14.3% 13.0%
SP vs. Right 0.279 12 21.0% 3.8% SP vs. Right 0.326 22 19.9% 11.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Wisler
matt-wisler-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $6,600
FPPG: 25.3 FPPG: 12.7
Pitcher Rating: 44.3 Pitcher Rank: 19
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 4 99.5 4.38 5.32 19.8% 7.2% 11.3% 39.7% 41.0% 33.8%
2016 17 96.4 4.55 4.47 18.0% 6.6% 8.9% 38.4% 42.6% 37.2%
2015 19 93.3 4.98 4.71 15.1% 8.4% 8.1% 33.6% 43.2% 28.2%

Wisler has been an easy fade in DFS this season. Not only does he play for one of the worst teams in baseball, but he has a below average strikeout rate. As I point out in my RotoAcademy lesson, strikeouts are king when it comes to selecting a pitcher. In 17 starts, he has a 4.55 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 18%. Tonight he heads to Cincinnati to take on the Reds in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. As an underdog in what is expected to be a high-scoring game, Wisler can be avoided in all league formats.

Brandon Finnegan
brandon-finnegan-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $5,400
FPPG: 20.6 FPPG: 9.9
Pitcher Rating: 47.2 Pitcher Rank: 16
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 4 89.3 6.17 9.47 16.7% 16.7% 8.7% 37.3% 49.2% 47.5%
2016 18 95.7 5.39 4.71 16.6% 12.0% 8.9% 39.3% 38.0% 37.0%
2015 4 187.8 3.77 3.56 22.8% 10.7% 9.7% 54.3% 29.1% 30.8%

Finnegan showed some promise last season in four starts, but has really struggled to find his footing this year. In 18 starts, he has a 5.39 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16.6% and a walk rate of 12%. He is a fly-ball pitcher that has a low k-rate, which is a bad combination for a pitcher, but a great combination for the opposing offense. The one reason to potentially look at Finnegan tonight is that he is facing a Braves’ offense that is ranked 29th in team wOBA (.281) and dead last in team ISO (.104) against left-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

I am taking a wild stab at this one, but I’d say that the Braves have a bottom five team total 80% of the time there is a large slate. The fact that they are projected to score 4.35 runs says a lot about their matchup against Brandon Finnegan. As I mentioned above, he is a fly-ball pitcher that has a low strikeout rate. In the last two seasons, he has allowed a .326+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. During that stretch, he has given up 26 home runs in only 22 starts.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Gordon Beckham RIGHT 0.308 0.151 0.280 2B $3,500 2B/3B $3,600
2 Adonis Garcia RIGHT 0.324 0.158 0.393 3B $2,900 3B $3,300
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.350 0.157 0.271 1B $4,600 1B $4,600
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.276 0.060 0.343 OF $2,700 OF $3,400
5 Jeff Francoeur RIGHT 0.306 0.140 0.332 OF $2,600 OF $4,400
6 A.J. Pierzynski LEFT 0.247 0.043 0.333 C $2,400 C $3,100
7 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.245 0.050 0.293 OF $2,600 OF $3,500
8 Erick Aybar SWITCH 0.236 0.051 0.126 SS $2,000 SS $2,300
9 Matt Wisler RIGHT 0.084 0.000 P $6,900 P $6,600
Team Averages — 0.264 0.090 0.296 — — — —

Elite Plays – Gordon Beckham, Adonis Garcia

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman, Jeff Francoeur

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati

The Reds are always worth a look when they are playing at home in the home run-friendly Great American Ballpark. They come into tonight’s contest with the sixth highest implied team total. Even though they have struggled as a team against right-handed pitching, you can make a case for playing each and every hitter in the top five batting spots in their lineup tonight. The left-handed bats have a big edge in this matchup, as Matt Wisler has allowed a .382 wOBA and 18 home runs to lefties in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.318 0.184 0.349 SS $3,500 SS $4,300
2 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.254 0.059 0.232 OF $2,600 OF $3,700
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.410 0.224 0.396 1B $3,600 1B $4,900
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.333 0.253 0.331 OF $3,900 OF $4,600
5 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.347 0.312 0.226 OF $3,100 OF $4,800
6 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.293 0.145 0.195 3B $3,300 3B $2,700
7 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.306 0.109 0.346 2B $2,400 2B $3,200
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.302 0.098 0.268 C $2,300 C $3,300
9 Brandon Finnegan LEFT 0.158 0.036 0.000 P $6,300 P $5,400
Team Averages — 0.302 0.158 0.260 — — — —

Elite Plays – Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce

Secondary Plays – Zack Cozart, Adam Duvall

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

NY Mets at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM ET

NY Mets Chicago Cubs
nymetsmlb Steven Matz cubsmlb Jon Lester
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC -150 7.5
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.305 1 19.2% 9.2% SP vs. Left 0.275 6 28.1% 4.9%
SP vs. Right 0.291 13 23.8% 5.1% SP vs. Right 0.292 26 23.8% 6.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Steven Matz
steven-matz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,100 Salary: $8,700
FPPG: 33.4 FPPG: 17.5
Pitcher Rating: 65.4 Pitcher Rank: 8
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 96.2 4.34 4.85 19.2% 8.0% 9.6% 52.3% 34.1% 41.8%
2016 16 95.7 3.61 3.38 22.7% 5.8% 9.6% 52.8% 29.4% 29.8%
2015 6 96.0 3.63 2.27 22.8% 6.7% 8.3% 45.5% 33.7% 21.2%

Matz hasn’t been in the best of form recently, posting a 4.34 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 19.2% in the last month. His walk rate is up during that stretch and so is his hard hit contact rate. I typically like to use him more at home than I do on the road, especially when he is facing a difficult opponent like the Cubs. On the season, Chicago is ranked second in both team wOBA (.347) and team ISO (.192) against left-handed pitching. Matz is overpriced for this matchup.

Jon Lester
jon-lester-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,900 Salary: $9,400
FPPG: 36.3 FPPG: 19.7
Pitcher Rating: 78.6 Pitcher Rank: 4
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 85.4 4.53 6.84 20.5% 9.8% 9.8% 45.2% 35.6% 30.7%
2016 18 96.7 3.63 3.01 24.4% 6.3% 10.2% 47.1% 34.0% 28.2%
2015 32 99.5 3.19 3.34 25.0% 5.7% 10.4% 48.9% 29.3% 29.0%

It will be interesting to see what the majority of people do tonight at pitcher. Jose Fernandez is the top play overall, but Lester is $2,100 cheaper on FanDuel and $4,400 cheaper on DraftKings. This is a night where we can really put the savings to work, as we do have a game in Coors Field with an over/under of 11.5 runs. I’m going to wait until we see the lineups tonight (to see how much value is out there), but as of now, I’m leaning toward Lester over Fernandez in cash games. The Mets present a very favorable matchup, as they have the third highest strikeout rate against southpaws this season.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Was anyone else burned by the game in Wrigley Field yesterday? Those strong winds didn’t end up being an impact on scoring like many of us expected. The good news is that we don’t have to worry about the wind tonight, as it isn’t doing much. The Mets are an easy offense to avoid here, as Jon Lester has dominated both left and right-handed hitters. New York has the second lowest team total on the board tonight.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.320 0.157 0.340 3B $3,200 3B $3,500
2 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.282 0.140 0.424 OF $3,100 OF $4,000
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.372 0.247 0.475 OF $4,000 OF $5,300
4 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.307 0.141 0.233 2B $2,900 2B $4,400
5 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.321 0.134 0.382 SS $2,600 SS $4,200
6 Travis D’Arnaud RIGHT 0.405 0.276 0.307 C $2,100 C $3,200
7 Juan Lagares RIGHT 0.320 0.143 0.311 OF $2,800 OF $3,000
8 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.220 0.000 0.204 OF $2,000 OF $2,900
9 Steven Matz LEFT 0.312 0.333 0.000 P $9,100 P $8,700
Team Averages — 0.318 0.175 0.297 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Yoenis Cespedes

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs

Even though the Cubs are sizable favorites tonight at home, it’s hard to justify targeting them over some of the other offenses tonight. Chicago has the eighth lowest projection of the 22 teams in action and their matchup against Steven Matz is far from ideal. Over the last two seasons, Matz has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 wOBA.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.383 0.174 0.253 2B $2,900 2B $3,900
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.384 0.267 0.441 3B $3,700 3B/OF $5,000
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.371 0.203 0.465 1B $3,000 1B $4,600
4 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.354 0.152 0.338 C $3,100 C/OF $3,800
5 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.269 0.161 0.337 SS $2,500 SS $3,800
6 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.305 0.098 0.334 OF $2,500 OF $3,500
7 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.443 0.241 0.359 SS $2,600 2B/3B $4,600
8 Albert Almora RIGHT 0.327 0.294 0.163 OF $2,000 OF $3,000
9 Jon Lester LEFT 0.134 0.050 0.691 P $9,900 P $9,400
Team Averages — 0.330 0.182 0.376 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Addison Russell

Stackability – ORANGE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious