MLB Grind Down: Monday, July 21st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-07-21 21:14:37

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

San Francisco at Philadelphia

San Francisco					Philadelphia
Ryan Vogelsong		Vegas Moneyline			Cliff Lee		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		PHI (-137)			LEFT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.275	0.751	0.333	18.5%	SP vs. Left	0.214	0.514	0.241	21.3%
SP vs. Right	0.285	0.789	0.361	16.5%	SP vs. Right	0.255	0.686	0.299	25.2%
Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SFG vs L		Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Ryan Vogelsong – Vogelsong has really struggled on the road this season. He owns a 5.18 ERA away from AT&T Park while giving up a .385 wOBA to opposing batters. While the Phillies have been below average offensively against RH pitching this season (team .287 wOBA), Citizens Bank Park has been the 6th most HR-friendly ballpark in baseball. Vogelsong is a deep GPP play at best. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6100 FD, $12950 DD, $7500 DK, $69900 FF, $20600 SS, $12950 FTD

• Cliff Lee – Lee has finally been cleared to start and will make his comeback tonight against the Giants. Lee was rocked in his last rehab start, but I’m not sure how much stock I’d put into it. On the season, Lee has posted a 3.18 ERA with a K/9 of 8.1. His peripherals look even better with a 2.70 FIP. While Citizens Bank Park is a very HR-friendly ballpark, Lee is only giving up HR’s 7.9% of each flyball given up. The only concern here is a potential pitch count. Rating = 6

Salaries: $9500 FD, $17900 DD, $10200 DK, $109000 FF, $27200 SS, $17900 FTD

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Buster Posey – Lee has been terrific against hitters from the left side of the plate, but has given up a .336 wOBA to RH batters and we know that Posey has always excelled vs. LH pitching. Lee could be a bit rusty in his first start back and Posey makes a nice play at Catcher that will likely go overlooked.

Additional Plays: Hunter Pence

Philadelphia

Chase Utley – Utley isn’t exactly a HR hitter, but he still has plenty of pop in his short compact swing. Vogelsong has given up a .331 wOBA to LH batters this season and Utley continues to rake against RH pitching. He’s a very reliable fantasy option at 2B.

Additional Plays: Marlon Byrd

Texas at NY Yankees

Texas					NY Yankees
Miles Mikolas		Vegas Moneyline			Shane Greene		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		NYY (-158)			RIGHT		9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.333	1.011	0.432	15.0%	SP vs. Left	0.211	0.641	0.312	9.1%
SP vs. Right	0.333	0.789	0.366	24.1%	SP vs. Right	0.000	0.200	0.138	20.0%
Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs R		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Miles Mikolas – Mikolas has not shown us much in his first 3 starts of the season. As a Grinder put it, he’s better at eating lizards than he is getting opposing batters out. Mikolas is sporting a double-digit ERA and is averaging less than 5 innings per start. His peripheral stats suggest that his ERA will come way down eventually, but he’s not a recommended play against the Yankees in the Bronx. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5000 FD, $8950 DD, $5000 DK, $61000 FF, $13000 SS, $NA FTD

• Shane Greene – The Yankees have to like what they see from Greene thus far. In his first 3 major league starts, he has posted a 1.32 ERA with a K/9 of 7.90. His BABIP is sitting at only .200 which won’t hold over the course of the season, but Greene does offer decent value for the price. Not only that, but the Rangers are ranked 23rd against RH pitching this season with a team .301 wOBA. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $6000 FD, $9550 DD, $7100 DK, $85800 FF, $17000 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Leonys Martin – Martin is one of those players that always seems to go overlooked in the daily fantasy baseball world. He’s fairly priced across the industry, has a .335 wOBA against RH pitching this season, and has already stolen 16 bases against righties. I like the matchup against the rookie Greene.

Additional Plays: Adrian Beltre

NY Yankees

Jacoby Ellsbury – Over his last 9 games, Ellsbury has 14 hits and 5 SB’s. He now has 27 SB’s on the season and 19 of those have come against RH pitching. Expect him to be aggressive on the base pads again tonight against the inexperienced Mikolas.

Additional Plays: Brett Gardner, Brian McCann

LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh

LA Dodgers					Pittsburgh
Hyun-Jin Ryu		Vegas Moneyline			Edinson Volquez		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		LAD (-105)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.274	0.703	0.315	18.1%	SP vs. Left	0.279	0.804	0.357	17.1%
SP vs. Right	0.253	0.658	0.294	20.3%	SP vs. Right	0.256	0.710	0.322	17.7%
Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LAD vs R		Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Hyun-Jin Ryu – Ryu’s ERA is a bit higher than that of his ERA, but everything else suggests that he is having a better season. His K/9, xFIP, and K/BB ratio are all better in 2014 than they were in his 2013 campaign. Tonight he travels to Pittsburgh to take on the Pirates who own the NL’s best record at home this season. The matchup bodes well for Ryu though as the Pirates are ranked 28th against LH pitching with a team .300 wOBA. Ryu is in play, but you can find better options at the same price point. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8100 FD, $15450 DD, $9100 DK, $82700 FF, $24800 SS, $15450 FTD

• Edinson Volquez – Volquez is hoping to carry some of the momentum that he gained before the All-Star Break into tonight’s start against the Dodgers. In his last 4 starts, he gave up a combined 3 earned runs while striking out 18 batters. Volquez is only averaging 3.00 walks per 9 innings which is his lowest at any point over the last 6 years. The Dodgers have a powerful lineup, but Volquez could be a nice contrarian play tonight. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7100 FD, $14400 DD, $7300 DK, $103200 FF, $21300 SS, $14400 FTD

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Adrian Gonzalez – Volquez has managed to keep LH hitters in check this season, but has struggled against lefties historically. Gonzalez has a .358 wOBA against RH pitching this season and his price is down on most sites which makes him an attractive play at 1B.

Additional Plays: Dee Gordon

Pittsburgh

Jordy Mercer – Mercer is my go-to play when he is facing a LH pitcher. He’s not only dirt cheap across the industry, but had a .490 wOBA against lefties last season and his numbers against lefties this season are starting to pick up. Mercer is enjoying his best month of the season as he’s hitting for a .375 average with a .438 OBP in July.

Additional Plays: Andrew McCutchen

Boston at Toronto

Boston					Toronto
John Lackey		Vegas Moneyline			Drew Hutchison		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		BOS (-105)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.241	0.670	0.296	20.7%	SP vs. Left	0.261	0.757	0.330	17.9%
SP vs. Right	0.271	0.748	0.330	21.5%	SP vs. Right	0.233	0.647	0.295	24.9%
Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R		Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• John Lackey – Lackey’s 2014 campaign looks almost identical to his 2013 campaign. He is sporting a 3.79 ERA with a 3.25 xFIP and a K/9 of 7.9. Lackey has been a reverse splits pitcher which actually bodes pretty well for his matchup tonight against the Blue Jays. That said, this game will take place in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre which has been the AL’s version of Coors Field this season. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $8000 FD, $14400 DD, $8400 DK, $87700 FF, $23700 SS, $14400 FTD

• Drew Hutchison – Hutchison has some glaring Home/Road splits this season. His numbers get worse across the board when he is pitching at home. He has a 6.75 ERA at home while giving up a .270 batting average and walking 10.6% of opposing batters. While this Red Sox offense has left much to be desired this season, they should be able to knock Hutchison around a bit tonight. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $5800 FD, $11800 DD, $6400 DK, $74400 FF, $18000 SS, $11800 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Boston

David Ortiz – Big Papi makes a nice play at 1B tonight. He’s playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark against a pitcher that struggles vs. LH hitters. Hutchison is a high-strikeout pitcher, but has only struck out 17.9% of all LH batters he’s faces this season.

Additional Plays: Brock Holt

Toronto

Jose Bautista – Joey Bats makes a nice play tonight against the reverse splits pitcher Lackey who has given up a .330 wOBA to RH hitters this season. While Bautista’s numbers have been much better against LH pitching, he still has great pop against RH pitching and he does have 2 career HR’s off of Lackey.

Additional Plays: Melky Cabrera, Jose Reyes

Miami at Atlanta

Miami					Atlanta
Tom Koehler		Vegas Moneyline			Julio Teheran		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		ATL (-200)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.229	0.654	0.299	16.9%	SP vs. Left	0.254	0.715	0.318	18.5%
SP vs. Right	0.270	0.763	0.343	16.7%	SP vs. Right	0.219	0.576	0.269	25.0%
Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R		Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Tom Koehler – After a terrific start to the season, Koehler has come crashing back down to Earth. His low BABIP and high xFIP suggested that it would happen and it was really only a matter of time. He still offers a respectable K/9 of 7.03 though and he does have a favorable matchup against the Braves who are ranked 27th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. With everyone targeting Teheran as their top play tonight, Koehler could make a very interesting contrarian play in a GPP. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6100 FD, $13050 DD, $6500 DK, $68800 FF, $17600 SS, $13050 FTD

• Julio Teheran – Teheran is my #1 pitcher tonight and I’ll likely be using him across the board in my cash games. He has been terrific at home this season with a 1.23 ERA while holding batters to a .174 batting average. Not only that, but the Marlins have been awful on the road this season (25th in road wOBA). Teheran has already dominated this lineup twice this season and should be targeted in all leagues. Rating = 9

Salaries: $8900 FD, $19150 DD, $9400 DK, $114100 FF, $26900 SS, $19150 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Miami

This is a bad matchup for the Marlins. Teheran has been nearly unhittable at home and he’s managed to keep both LH and RH hitters in check this season.

Atlanta

Chris Johnson – Probably not the player that you were expecting right? Koehler is a reverse splits pitcher and with Gattis out and J-Upton a question mark for tonight, Johnson takes the cake as my top RH batter on the Braves tonight. He has really picked it up (.300+ batting average) since the start of June and has 5 HR’s during that stretch.

Additional Plays: Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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