MLB Grind Down: Monday, June 22nd - Page Two
Houston at LA Angels – 10:05 PM EST
| Houston | LA Angels | ||||||||
 | Brett Oberholtzer |  | Hector Santiago | ||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| LAA (-125) | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.292 | 0.743 | 0.326 | 0.167 | SP vs. Left | 0.210 | 0.547 | 0.250 | 0.207 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.285 | 0.745 | 0.326 | 0.148 | SP vs. Right | 0.247 | 0.751 | 0.330 | 0.210 |
| Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs L | Batter Splits | LAA BvP | ANA vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Brett Oberholtzer : FD: $5,200 — DK: $6,500
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 170.0 — SIERA: 4.28 — K%: 15.2% — BB%: 5.0% — FB Rate: 41.2% — HR/FB: 5.1%
Last 30 Days: IP: 23.1 — SIERA: 4.39 — K%: 15.3% — BB%: 7.1% — FB Rate: 36.0% — HR/FB: 0.0%
LA Angels of Anaheim Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.299 (Rank: 22) — Strikeout Rate: 19.7% (Rank: 10)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.314 (Rank: 15) — Strikeout Rate: 16.8% (Rank: 5)
Pitchers per PA: 3.76 (Rank: 20)
Analysis: Oberholtzer has been an average pitcher at best this season. He has a 4.39 SIERA with a low strikeout rate of 15.3%. There are enough quality pitching options on the schedule tonight that Oberholtzer is an easy avoid in both cash games and tournaments. He is an underdog tonight against the Angels in a game that features a total of 8.0 runs.
Pitcher Rating:45.4
Hector Santiago : FD: $7,500 — DK: $7,200
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 208.2 — SIERA: 4.25 — K%: 20.9% — BB%: 9.3% — FB Rate: 50.8% — HR/FB: 8.8%
Last 30 Days: IP: 33.1 — SIERA: 3.76 — K%: 24.3% — BB%: 6.4% — FB Rate: 60.4% — HR/FB: 12.7%
Houston Astros Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.317 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 23.7% (Rank: 26)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.353 (Rank: 5) — Strikeout Rate: 26.9% (Rank: 30)
Pitchers per PA: 3.82 (Rank: 11)
Analysis: Santiago has pitched well over the last month of play, posting a 3.76 SIERA with an impressive strikeout rate of 24.3%. He draws the boom or bust matchup of the night. The Astros are ranked 8th in wOBA (.317) against left-handed pitching, but they also have the 5th-highest strikeout rate. The high-strikeout potential is there, but so is the risk. I’m not sure that I will have any exposure to Santiago tonight, even in tournaments.
Pitcher Rating:62.5
Batter Grind Down
Houston
George Springer : FD: $4,200 — DK: $4,600
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 192 — wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.217 — wRC+: 143
Last 14 Days: PA: 58 — wOBA: 0.515 — ISO: 0.286 — wRC+: 241
Analysis: Springer has been red-hot for the better part of a month. He has a .515 wOBA and a .286 ISO over the last 14 days and he has a great track record against left-handed pitching. He also gets to face an extreme fly-ball pitcher in Hector Santiago, who has given up 1.33 home runs per nine innings this season. The right-handed bats in the Astros’ lineup make a very sneaky stack tonight against Santiago.
Carlos Correa
Salaries: FD: $3,800 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 25 — wOBA: 0.438 — ISO: 0.333 — wRC+: 188
Evan Gattis
Salaries: FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 167 — wOBA: 0.331 — ISO: 0.209 — wRC+: 111
Chris Carter
Salaries: FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 260 — wOBA: 0.352 — ISO: 0.242 — wRC+: 127
LA Angels
Mike Trout : FD: $5,200 — DK: $5,300
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 235 — wOBA: 0.397 — ISO: 0.244 — wRC+: 163
Last 14 Days: PA: 54 — wOBA: 0.469 — ISO: 0.271 — wRC+: 213
Analysis: Trout is really good. I could end the analysis there, but the loyal readers of the Grind Down deserve better. Trout has been swinging a hot bat in the last two weeks with a .469 wOBA and a .271 ISO. He has great power against left-handed pitching and he has good speed on the bases as well. Trout also draws a favorable matchup against Brett Oberholtzer, who has given up a .326 wOBA to right-handed hitters.
Albert Pujols
Salaries: FD: $4,300 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 222 — wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.187 — wRC+: 101
David Freese
Salaries: FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 170 — wOBA: 0.366 — ISO: 0.208 — wRC+: 142
Kansas City at Seattle – 10:10 PM EST
| Kansas City | Seattle | ||||||||
 | Joe Blanton |  | Felix Hernandez | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| SEA (-160) | 6.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.256 | 0.733 | 0.306 | 0.196 | SP vs. Left | 0.198 | 0.549 | 0.246 | 0.24 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.229 | 0.588 | 0.255 | 0.229 | SP vs. Right | 0.199 | 0.579 | 0.258 | 0.295 |
| Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KC vs R | Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Joe Blanton : FD: $5,100 — DK: $4,100
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 20.0 — SIERA: 2.93 — K%: 21.0% — BB%: 3.7% — FB Rate: 30.5% — HR/FB: 5.6%
Last 30 Days: IP: 16.0 — SIERA: 2.83 — K%: 23.4% — BB%: 4.7% — FB Rate: 33.3% — HR/FB: 0.0%
Seattle Mariners Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.289 (Rank: 29) — Strikeout Rate: 22.8% (Rank: 28)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.269 (Rank: 29) — Strikeout Rate: 21.1% (Rank: 21)
Pitchers per PA: 3.88 (Rank: 6)
Analysis: Blanton has pitched well this season, but he is better out of the bullpen than he is as a starter. He will likely be on a pitch count again tonight, as he has yet to throw more than 73 pitches in any outing this season. The numbers for Blanton look great and so does the matchup, but it would take a perfect outing for him to even be eligible for the win. We don’t want to target a pitcher that has such limited upside.
Pitcher Rating:46.2
Felix Hernandez : FD: $11,600 — DK: $10,900
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 326.2 — SIERA: 2.66 — K%: 26.4% — BB%: 5.8% — FB Rate: 25.5% — HR/FB: 12.1%
Last 30 Days: IP: 36.0 — SIERA: 3.68 — K%: 22.4% — BB%: 10.5% — FB Rate: 21.5% — HR/FB: 20.0%
Kansas City Royals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 9) — Strikeout Rate: 15.9% (Rank: 1)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.331 (Rank: 12) — Strikeout Rate: 13.4% (Rank: 1)
Pitchers per PA: 3.67 (Rank: 29)
Analysis: Hernandez has mediocre numbers over the last month of play, but most of that can be attributed to his awful start against the Astros. We should trust the larger sample size here. Since the start of last season, Hernandez has a 2.66 SIERA with an elite strikeout rate of 26.4%. The biggest issue with Hernandez tonight is his matchup. The Royals have the lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and the lowest strikeout rate over the last 14 days. Hernandez should still pitch well in this one, but I have him ranked behind both Clayton Kershaw and Michael Pineda tonight.
Pitcher Rating:85.8
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
After getting shelled in Houston, Felix Hernandez bounced back nicely in his last start. He is one of the worst pitchers to target hitters against, as he has held left and right-handed hitters under a .260 wOBA over the past two seasons. The Royals are a very tough offense, but they can safely be avoided tonight in Seattle.
Seattle
The Mariners are sizable favorites tonight, but the total for the game is set at only 6.5 runs. They still have one of the lowest team totals on the board. They draw a decent matchup against Joe Blanton, but none of the M’s bats stand out as a must play. They are better secondary options tonight at home.
Nelson Cruz
Salaries: FD: $3,300 — DK: $4,900
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 742 — wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.236 — wRC+: 130
Kyle Seager
Salaries: FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 623 — wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.201 — wRC+: 133
Logan Morrison
Salaries: FD: $2,300 — DK: $3,800
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 471 — wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.171 — wRC+: 112