MLB Grind Down: Saturday, July 12th

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2014-07-12 20:56:05

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland

Chicago White Sox					Cleveland
Scott Carroll		Vegas Moneyline			Zach McAllister		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CLE (-155)			RIGHT		9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.303	0.829	0.370	8.6%	SP vs. Left	0.263	0.767	0.341	17.6%
SP vs. Right	0.286	0.687	0.328	14.5%	SP vs. Right	0.263	0.721	0.322	18.8%
Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CHW vs R		Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Scott Carroll – After being blasted by the Angels two starts ago, Carroll was masterful against the Red Sox in his last outing. He’s seen this Cleveland team twice already this season and has yet to surrender an earned run over nine innings and he’s pitched quite well this season on the road (3.89 ERA). With that said, his strikeout rate leaves a lot to be desired (4.41 K’s/9) and, considering that he’s allowed left-handed batters to post a .372 wOBA against him this season, this matchup against a left-handed loaded Indians team is far from ideal. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5400 FD, $NA DS, $8650 DD, $5500 DK, $58000 FF, $13800 SS, $NA FTD

• Zach McAllister – McAllister will be summoned from AAA Columbus today to take the mound against the White Sox this afternoon. He was ineffective in 10 starts this season before his demotion (5.89 ERA) but seems to have gotten back on track in the minors, posting a very solid 5-0 record to go along with a 2.23 ERA in six starts. He’s not the most exciting option, but he did post a respectable 3.99 ERA over 36 starts during the 2012 and 2013 season. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $5600 FD, $ DS, $9550 DD, $5700 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Conor Gillaspie – Zach McAllister has allowed lefties to post a .371 wOBA off of him this season and Gillaspie has crushed right-handed pitching to the tune of a .419 wOBA this season. He’s homered three times in the last four days and owns a 1.405 OPS during the month of July.

Additional Plays: Jose Abreu, Adam Dunn, Alejandro De Aza, Adam Eaton

Cleveland

Michael Brantley – Left-handed batters have beaten up on Carroll this season (.372 wOBA) and Brantley continues to have an all-star caliber season. He owns a .418 wOBA against right-handed pitching and is hitting .409 during the month of July. He’s in a perfect spot to increase his current hitting streak to nine games.

Additional Plays: Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana

Arizona at San Francisco

Arizona					San Francisco
Wade Miley		Vegas Moneyline			Ryan Vogelsong		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		SFG (-125)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.257	0.685	0.309	16.8%	SP vs. Left	0.275	0.751	0.333	18.5%
SP vs. Right	0.258	0.731	0.325	20.0%	SP vs. Right	0.285	0.789	0.361	16.5%
Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R		Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SFG vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Wade Miley – Miley has been sensational in each of his last two starts, allowing just three runs and ten baserunners over 14.2 innings, all while striking out 18 batters. He picked up a win in his only other meeting with the Giants this season and posted a 3.06 ERA against them in three starts last season. Miley has posted dramatic home vs road splits over the last two years, thriving away from the desert where he’s posted a 3.12 road ERA in 27 starts since the beginning of 2013. There’s some risk attached, but he’s certainly a GPP option at the very least today. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6900 FD, $15449 DS, $14450 DD, $7800 DK, $94600 FF, $21900 SS, $14450 FTD

• Ryan Vogelsong – Vogelsong loves pitching at AT&T Park and is greeted with a very favorable home matchup today against the National Leagues worst team, the Arizona Diamondbacks. In his ten home starts this season, Vogelsong has posted a very impressive 3.09 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 8.28 K’s/9. He doesn’t have the highest of ceilings, but he’s a solid option to fill out your rotation on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 6

Salaries: $6100 FD, $16998 DS, $13200 DD, $7300 DK, $74700 FF, $20800 SS, $13200 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Miguel Montero – Montero brings a four game hitting streak into today’s game and owns a .377 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. He’ll face Ryan Vogelsong who has struggled a bit against lefties this season and Montero has had success against him in the past (8 for 23)

Additional Plays: Aaron Hill, Paul Goldschmidt

San Francisco

Buster Posey – He’s struggled by his standards this season, but this is still a guy who owns a career .339 batting average against left-handed pitching. He’s also hammered Wade Miley in their somewhat breif history, going 9 for 17 with three doubles and a homerun.

Additional Plays: Brandon Crawford, Hunter Pence

NY Yankees at Baltimore

NY Yankees					Baltimore
Shane Greene		Vegas Moneyline			Chris Tillman		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		BAL (-)			RIGHT
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.211	0.641	0.312	9.1%	SP vs. Left	0.257	0.741	0.331	17.2%
SP vs. Right	0.000	0.200	0.138	20.0%	SP vs. Right	0.230	0.698	0.308	20.6%
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R		Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Shane Greene – Greene pitched very well in his first career start last week against Cleveland, allowing just two runs on four hits over six innings. His numbers at AAA Scranton are not overly impressive this season, but he seems to be settling into a groove as he hadn’t allowed a run in either of his last two starts prior to his promotion. With all that said, he’s not a pitcher who’s going to rack up strikeouts and he’ll be squaring off against a Baltimore team that ranks 5th in MLB in OPS versus right-handed pitching. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $5200 FD, $11888 DS, $7500 DD, $5400 DK, $67000 FF, $13000 SS, $NA FTD

• Chris Tillman – With Ubaldo Jimenez scratched from his scheduled start today, Tillman will step up to take on the New York Yankees. After a disasterous outing against the Texas Rangers in early June, Tillman has posted a 2.21 ERA over 40.2 innings since. He shutout the Yankees over seven innings in their only other meeting this season and sports an impressive 2.74 ERA at Camden Yards this season, however his strikeout rate has falled dramatically lately which really limits his fantasy value. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $6000 FD, $11749 DS, $11200 DD, $6100 DK, $85400 FF, $17100 SS, $11200 FTD

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Jacoby Ellsbury – Tillman has allowed lefties to post a .336 wOBA against him this season and Ellsbury can rack up fantasy points in a myriad of ways.

Additional Plays: Brian McCann

Baltimore

Chris Davis – Lefties owned a .317 average against Greene at AAA this season and, despite his recent struggles, Davis is still the most dangerous lefty in this lineup.

Additional Plays: Nelson Cruz, Steve Pearce, Adam Jones, Manny Machado

Atlanta at Chicago Cubs

Atlanta					Chicago Cubs
Mike Minor		Vegas Moneyline			Edwin Jackson		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		ATL (-125)			RIGHT
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.252	0.673	0.299	23.7%	SP vs. Left	0.308	0.841	0.377	18.6%
SP vs. Right	0.246	0.708	0.313	21.4%	SP vs. Right	0.260	0.716	0.321	18.9%
Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R		Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Mike Minor – Minor has been a bit disappointing for the Braves this season, but most of his troubles have been due to the longball (as indicated by his solid 3.58 xFIP). He dominated the Chicago Cubs in their only meeting last season, allowing just one run over 7.1 innings while fanning seven. Minor possesses solid strikeout potential (21.6 K%) and the Cubs rank #5 in MLB in strikeouts. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $7100 FD, $16797 DS, $13300 DD, $8000 DK, $78700 FF, $22500 SS, $13300 FTD

• Edwin Jackson – with a 5-9 record and a 5.05 ERA, it’s safe to say that Jackson is less than a desirable fantasy option. However, he has pitched rather well at Wrigley Field this season, where he’s posted a 4-2 record with a 3.86 ERA in eight home starts. Jackson pitched admirably against the Braves earlier this season and Atlanta owns just a .662 team OPS against right-handed pitching this season. While I’m not a huge fan of Jackson generally, this is a solid matchup and his mediocre strikeout rate even gets a nice boost against the strikeout prone Braves. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6500 FD, $11110 DS, $11850 DD, $6500 DK, $62700 FF, $15500 SS, $11850 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman – Freeman owns a .383 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and has crushed Edwin Jackson in the past, going 7 for 14 with a double, a triple and two homeruns. He’s hitting .375 during the month of July and lefties have posted a .395 wOBA against Jackson this season.

Additional Plays: Jason Heyward, B.J. Upton

Chicago Cubs

Justin Ruggiano – Ruggiano has a solid track record of success against left-handed pitching and has had success against Mike Minor in the past, going 7 for 20 with a two doubles and two homeruns.

Additional Plays:

St. Louis at Milwaukee

St. Louis					Milwaukee
Adam Wainwright		Vegas Moneyline			Jimmy Nelson		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		STL (-130)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.236	0.613	0.277	23.5%	SP vs. Left	0.083	0.383	0.203	19.4%
SP vs. Right	0.228	0.568	0.257	21.8%	SP vs. Right	0.172	0.398	0.188	25.8%
Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R		Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Adam Wainwright – After being blasted by the Giants to close out the month of May, all Waino has done since is post a 0.79 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in six starts. Wainwright sports a 1.32 road ERA this season and he’s dominated this Milwaukee team through his career, posting a 2.17 ERA over 145 innings. His strikeout rate his dipped sightly recently, but he’s still my top pitching choice of the day and should bring his “A” game into a very crucial battle in the NL Central. Rating = 9

Salaries: $10800 FD, $22622 DS, $21250 DD, $10800 DK, $147200 FF, $30400 SS, $21250 FTD

• Jimmy Nelson – Nelson will be recalled from AAA to start today and he was impressive in his only other opportunity this season, tossing 5.2 innings of shutout ball against the Marlins back in May. He has dominated at in the Pacific Coast League this year, posting a 10-2 record with a 1.46 ERA and 114 K’s in 111 innings. With Adam Wainwright on the mound for the Cardinals, securing a win won’t come easy but these Cardinals bats are in a bit of a funk and Nelson is well worth consideration if the price is right. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $ FD, $9021 DS, $14250 DD, $7200 DK, $ FF, $17500 SS, $14250 FTD

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Kolten Wong – Wong finally seems to be comfortable at the plate and has now homered four times over the last six games. He owns a 1.508 OPS during the month of July but is still very reasonably priced on many sites.

Additional Plays: Matt Adams, Matt Carpenter, Matt Holliday

Milwaukee

Aramis Ramirez – While I likely won’t be picking anyone against Waino, Ramirez has worn him out in the past going 19 for 47 with seven doubles and two homeruns

Additional Plays: None

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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