MLB Grind Down: Saturday, July 19th

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2014-07-20 11:48:44

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Cincinnati at NY Yankees

Cincinnati					NY Yankees
Alfredo Simon		Vegas Moneyline			Brandon McCarthy		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		NYY (-121)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.225	0.685	0.310	15.1%	SP vs. Left	0.300	0.765	0.338	18.7%
SP vs. Right	0.212	0.544	0.263	17.1%	SP vs. Right	0.294	0.771	0.346	13.6%
Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Alfredo Simon- Simon certainly earned his All-Star nomination, posting a 12-3 record to go along with a 2.70 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over 116.2 first half innings. He’s been spectacular on the road all season where he’s racked up a 7-1 record and 2.37 ERA in 10 starts. Yankee Stadium isn’t the most friendly of ballparks to pitch in and he’ll have to deal with a DH here, but he’s proving to be routinely effective. His 5.76 K’s/9 leave a little to be desired which brings down his rating slighly. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7700 FD, $NA DS, $15450 DD, $8500 DK, $120500 FF, $24000 SS, $15450 FTD

• Brandon McCarthy- McCarthy owned the award for biggest difference between ERA and FIP among starting pitchers this season, which means he has pitched much better than his 3-10 record and 4.80 ERA indicate. He’ll do battle with a Cincinnati team that roughed him up for five earned runs in just 4.1 innings earlier this season, but with Votto and Phillips both on the DL, is a much less dangerous lineup this time around. I’m optimistic he’ll turn things around with his new team, so he’s in play if the price is right on multi pitcher sites. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6000 FD, $ DS, $11950 DD, $6900 DK, $69800 FF, $17500 SS, $11950 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Billy Hamilton – Lefties own a .363 wOBA against Brandon McCarthy this season, and Hamilton has shaken off a slow start to the season to become one of the biggest weapons in fantasy baseball. Over the last 29 games, Hamilton owns a .344 batting average, 20 runs, 23 RBI’s and 13 stolen bases. In a tiny sample size, Hamilton has had success off of McCarthy in the past, going 2 for 3 with a stolen base.

Additional Plays: Jay Bruce

NY Yankees

Jacoby Ellsbury – Another speedster in this game worth consideration, Ellsbury homered last night and is always a threat on the basepaths. He’s 4 for 6 with a double and a triple off of Simon in their previous meetings.

Additional Plays: Mark Teixeira, Brett Gardner

Texas at Toronto

Texas					Toronto
Colby Lewis		Vegas Moneyline			Marcus Stroman		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TOR (-180)			RIGHT		9.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.378	0.975	0.428	16.7%	SP vs. Left	0.243	0.707	0.317	18.1%
SP vs. Right	0.284	0.769	0.344	21.8%	SP vs. Right	0.240	0.601	0.264	25.3%
Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs R		Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Colby Lewis- To say Lewis’ last start prior to the All-Star Break was a disaster would be an understatement as he was pounded for 13 runs in just 2.1 innings of work against the Angels. The potentially worst starting pitcher performance of the season spiked his ERA all the way up to 6.54 through 16 starts. He’ll head to the Rogers Center to take on a Blue Jays team that leads MLB in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season (.339 wOBA) and should be avoided. Rating = 2

Salaries: $6300 FD, $NA DS, $8800 DD, $4800 DK, $43200 FF, $14500 SS, $8800 FTD

• Marcus Stroman- After strolling into Oakland and shutting out the A’s over seven innings, Stroman was roughed up for six runs in just 3.2 innings against the Angels in his last start. He struggled as a reliever to open the season, but has really pitched well since moving into the rotation; Owning a 3-2 record, 2.87 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 8.19 K’s/9 during his eight starts. With MLB’s worst team coming to Toronto, Stroman is very much in play today. Rating = 6

Salaries: $6300 FD, $ DS, $12300 DD, $6800 DK, $94400 FF, $18600 SS, $12300 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Adrian Beltre – Beltre is the owner of a .394 wOBA against right-handed pitching and owns a .386 batting average since the beginning of June. Marcus Stroman is still quite inexperienced and Beltre can make him pay in a hurry.

Additional Plays: Alex Rios, Shin-Soo Choo

Toronto

Jose Reyes – Lefties own a rediculous .443 wOBA versus Colby Lewis this season, and Reyes is the place setter at the top of this Blue Jays lineup. Reyes brings a nine game hitting streak into today’s game and has thrived on the Rogers Centre astroturf, posting an .851 OPS at home.

Additional Plays: Jose Bautista, Colby Rasmus

Cleveland at Detroit

Cleveland					Detroit
Corey Kluber		Vegas Moneyline			Drew VerHagen		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CLE (-120)			SP-HAND		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.273	0.748	0.333	23.7%	SP vs. Left	AVG	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Right	0.247	0.624	0.282	24.9%	SP vs. Right	AVG	OPS	wOBA	K%
Batter Splits	CLE BvP				Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Corey Kluber- Kluber is emerging as a top of the rotation pitcher for the Tribe this season, and now sports a 9-6 record, 3.01 ERA and a very impressive 9.72 K’s/9 through twenty starts. Today’s matchup in Detroit against a Tigers team that ranks third in MLB in wOBA versus right-handed pitching (.336 wOBA) isn’t ideal, but Kluber has pitched admirably against them in two separate occassions this season. The matchup may stear me away in cash games, but his high ceiling is perfect for GPP’s. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $9100 FD, $NA DS, $17550 DD, $8700 DK, $117600 FF, $27700 SS, $17550 FTD

• Drew VerHagen – he recent struggles of Robbie Ray at AAA Toledo have opened the door for VerHagen to grab a spot start for the Tigers today. He’s had a solid, yet unspectacular season at AAA where he owns a 6-7 record with a 3.67 ERA. Lefties have hit .298 against him in the minors this season which could spell big trouble for him against a Cleveland team that can load up with left-handed bats. With only 63 strikeouts in 110 innings at Toledo, he doesn’t appear to offer much fantasy upside. Rating = 3

Salaries: $7700 FD, $NA DS, $15450 DD, $8500 DK, $120500 FF, $24000 SS, $15450 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Jason Kipnis – Fresh off of double-dong performance, Kipnis is a solid option today as he’s hitting .50 points higher versus right-handed pitching this season and owns a .304 batting average (and five stolen bases) during the month of July.

Additional Plays: Michael Brantley, Carlos Santana

Detroit

Miguel Cabrera – He’s always a stong play, but he flat out owns Corey Kluber, going 12 for 24 with three homeruns off of him in their prior meetings.

Additional Plays: J.D. Martinez, Ian Kinsler, Victor Martinez

LA Dodgers at St. Louis

LA Dodgers					St. Louis
Zack Greinke		Vegas Moneyline			Joe Kelly		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		LAD (-130)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.258	0.707	0.318	20.5%	SP vs. Left	0.255	0.693	0.311	15.2%
SP vs. Right	0.229	0.604	0.274	24.8%	SP vs. Right	0.261	0.651	0.306	14.3%
Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LAD vs R		Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Zack Greinke- Greinke cruised into the break with an 11-5 record, 2.73 ERA and 127 strikeouts in 118.2 innings. He dominated this St. Louis team a few weeks back, allowing just one run over seven innings while striking out 10. While his ERA sits at 2.73 both at home and on the road, a deeper look at the numbers show that he’s been much more hittable on the road (opponents hitting just .222 off of him at home, versus .283 on the road). Despite his road “struggles” he’s still one of the top options on the board today. Rating = 8

Salaries: $9800 FD, $NA DS, $18450 DD, $9700 DK, $124600 FF, $29100 SS, $18450 FTD

• Joe Kelly – Kelly was smacked around for six runs on seven hits against the Brewers in his last start (a return from the DL), but he’s proven to be a rather reliable starter for the Cardinals when given the opportunity. He’s the owner of a 3.10 career ERA and threw six shutout innings against the Cubs in his only other home start of the season. Considering his bargain price, he’s worth consideration today. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5600 FD, $ DS, $8000 DD, $6300 DK, $79200 FF, $15000 SS, $8000 FTD

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Adrian Gonzalez – It’s been a disappointing season for Gonzalez, but he still owns a .359 wOBA versus right-handed pitching and he’s 4 for 7 with a homerun off of Joe Kelly.

Additional Plays: Yaisel Puig, Hanley Ramirez

St. Louis

Kolten Wong – Wong brings a seven game hitting streak into today’s game and is now hitting .344 with five homeruns during the month of July. He’s been a much better hitter during his short career at Busch Stadium and is a fine play despite the tough matchup against Greinke.

Additional Plays: Matt Adams, Matt Carpenter, Matt Holliday

Milwaukee at Washington

Milwaukee					Washington
Matt Garza		Vegas Moneyline			Tanner Roark		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		WAS (-)			LEFT
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.257	0.698	0.313	20.9%	SP vs. Left	0.222	0.647	0.290	15.7%
SP vs. Right	0.238	0.654	0.295	18.7%	SP vs. Right	0.258	0.632	0.280	20.0%
Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs L		Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Matt Garza- Garza has been terrific lately, posting a 4-2 record with a 2.35 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over his last eight starts. He’ll take on a Washington team who ranks #23 in MLB in OPS against right-handed pitching and who he pitched quite well against earlier this season outside of one big mistake (a 3 run homerun by Adam LaRoche). He’s struggled a bit away from Miller Park this season, posting a 4.50 ERA on the road. His strikeout rate has dipped this season, but his recent success makes him worth consideration today. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $8100 FD, $NA DS, $15850 DD, $8000 DK, $93000 FF, $23100 SS, $15850 FTD

UPDATE Gio Gonzalez has been replaced by Tanner Roark. Roark enters today’s game with a 8-6 record and 3.01 ERA through 18 starts. He has been tremendous at home this season, posting a 2.02 ERA in 58 innings. He’s still reasonably priced on many sites and is a decent fantasy option despite a somewhat difficult matchup (Milwaukee is 7th in MLB in wOBA against right-handed pitching). Roark’s Rating = 6

Salaries: $6600 FD, $ DS, $15300 DD, $7400 DK, $86600 FF, $20900 SS, $15200 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Jonathan Lucroy – He should once again find himself in the heart of the Brewers order where he offers an offensive upside that very few catchers in the league can match.

Additional Plays: Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez, Khris Davis, Aramis Ramirez

With Roark on the mound instead of Gio, Scooter Gennett becomes a strong fantasy option)

Washington

Adam LaRoche – LaRoche enters today’s game with a .393 wOBA versus right-handed pitching despite his recent cold streak. He’s hitting .295 this season at Nationals Park and is 4 for 6 with a pair of homeruns in his career against Matt Garza.

Additional Plays: Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth

Colorado at Pittsburgh

Colorado					Pittsburgh
Brett Anderson		Vegas Moneyline			Charlie Morton		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		PIT (-147)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.258	0.733	0.322	23.9%	SP vs. Left	0.265	0.684	0.332	19.0%
SP vs. Right	0.293	0.789	0.357	17.7%	SP vs. Right	0.229	0.572	0.274	17.9%
Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs R		Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Brett Anderson- Anderson was roughed up by the Twins in his first start since returning from the DL last week, giving up five runs on ten hits in five innings of work. The Pirates rank near the bottom of the league in wOBA against left-handed pitching (.686 OPS) but have several players who historically have crushed southpaws. While Anderson should see a boost to his fantasy value by getting away from Coors Field, he’s still not the most reliable fantasy option. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $5000 FD, $NA DS, $6200 DD, $5900 DK, $59700 FF, $13000 SS, $6200 FTD

• Charlie Morton- Things fell apart for Morton a bit in his last start, as he served up a pair of sixth inning homeruns that derailed what looked to be another sensational start. He entered the All-Star break owning a very respectable 3.32 ERA and 1.19 WHIP after 19 starts. He’s a different pitcher inside PNC Park, where he’s posted a 2.13 ERA in eight home starts this season. The Rockies are much less intimidating away from Coors Field, so Morton is well worth consideration on mulit-pitcher sites if the asking price is right. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7400 FD, $ DS, $14800 DD, $8000 DK, $95400 FF, $22800 SS, $14800 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Corey Dickerson – While he may not be the same offensive threat as he is inside of Coors Field, Dickerson is still the owner of a .444 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and reached base three times (and stole a pair of bases) last night.

Additional Plays: Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, Charlie Blackmon

Pittsburgh

Andrew McCutchen – Righties own a .940 OPS versus Anderson this season and it’s not a secret that “Cutch” crushes left-handed pitching as he owns .432 wOBA on the season. He’s hitting .360 since the beginning of June and is one of my favorite hitting options of the day

Additional Plays: Starling Marte, Jordy Mercer, Josh Harrison

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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