MLB Grind Down: Saturday, July 26th

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2014-07-26 16:56:12

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Toronto at NY Yankees

Toronto					NY Yankees
Drew Hutchison		Vegas Moneyline			Chris Capuano		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		NYY (-)			LEFT
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.275	0.796	0.346	17.8%	SP vs. Left	0.276	0.668	0.296	15.2%
SP vs. Right	0.245	0.660	0.300	24.8%	SP vs. Right	0.295	0.820	0.365	19.7%
Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs L		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Drew Hutchison – Hutchison has been brutalized in each of his last two starts, surrendering six earned runs in each start to raise his ERA to 4.54 on the season. He’ll head to Yankee Stadium to take on a New York team that has roughed him up to the tune of a 0-3 record and 9.22 ERA in three starts this season. His recent results and history this season against the Yankees are red flags, but he does own a 2.97 ERA in 12 road starts this season and owns a respectable 8.12 K’s/9 strikeout rate, so he’s still an option as a GPP flier. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $5400 FD, $NA DS, $11350 DD, $5900 DK, $65100 FF, $16600 SS, $11350 FTD

• Chris Capuano – Capuano had a forgetable beginning to this season, posting a 4.55 ERA and 1.55 WHIP out of the bullpen for the Boston Red Sox. However, since reporting to AAA Colorado Springs for the Yankees he seems to have straightened things out (11 strikeouts in his last outing). This Blue Jays team is dangerous, but they rank just 21st in MLB in wOBA against left-handed pitching. He was rocked for five earned runs in just 4.1 innings of work against Toronto last season, so i’ll be avoiding him today. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5000 FD, $ DS, $ DD, $4800 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Jose Bautista – Bautista finds himself in a great spot today against southpaw Chris Capuano, as he’s posted a ridiculous .481 wOBA against left-handed pitching and is fresh off a “double-dong” performance last night. He’s posted a 1.240 OPS since the All-Star break and has eight hits (3 homeruns) in the last four games.

Additional Plays: Steve Tolleson, Melky Cabrera

NY Yankees

Jacoby Ellsbury – Ellsbury has cooled off a bit at the plate recently, but with lefties owning a .347 wOBA against Hutchison this season, he looks like a strong play. He’s hitting .315 this season at Yankee Stadium, has worn out this Toronto pitching staff (.349 average against them) and is always a threat on the basepaths.

Additional Plays: Brett Gardner, Carlos Beltran

Washington at Cincinnati

Washington					Cincinnati
Gio Gonzalez		Vegas Moneyline			Johnny Cueto		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		CIN (-115)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.213	0.593	0.269	27.1%	SP vs. Left	0.200	0.553	0.254	23.7%
SP vs. Right	0.235	0.679	0.306	23.0%	SP vs. Right	0.184	0.540	0.252	24.4%
Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs R		Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Gio Gonzalez – Gio’s last outing was a disappointment, as he was pulled after just 3.1 innings pitched versus Milwaukee. Despite that start, he still owns a 3-1 record, 1.74 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 31 innings over his last five starts. Gio absolutely dominated the Reds in their only meeting last season, allowing just one hit (a solo homerun by Joey Votto) while striking out seven in eight innings of work. It’s worth noting that Gio owns a 5.07 ERA in 18 daytime starts since the beginning of last season. His day-time struggles are a small red-flag and Johnny Cueto will make securing a win rather difficult, but Gio is still a solid option. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $8900 FD, $NA DS, $16000 DD, $10200 DK, $95800 FF, $26500 SS, $16600 FTD

• Johnny Cueto – Cueto continues to keep himself in the running for the NL Cy Young as he now owns a 10-6 record, 2.18 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and a strikeout per innings through 148.2 innings. He has been ever more impressive at the Great American Ballpark, posting a 1.93 ERA and .79 WHIP in 11 starts all while striking out 88 batters in 79.1 innings. With all that said, his only really “bad” outing this season came at the hands of these Nationals. He’s still an elite option on the mound today and can be used with confidence in all formats. Rating = 8

Salaries: $10000 FD, $ DS, $18300 DD, $9600 DK, $116300 FF, $29900 SS, $18300 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Bryce Harper – While picking on Cueto likely isn’t wise, it’s hard to pass up the potential bargain price for Harper. Harper posted a .948 OPS against right-handed pitching and a .910 OPS at Nationals Park last season and finally appears to be fully recovered from his thumb injury.

Additional Plays: Adam LaRoche, Denard Span

Cincinnati

Todd Frazier – Frazier owns a very solid .377 wOBA against left-handed pitching and has crushed the ball all season at the Great American Ballpark (.921 OPS).

Additional Plays: Devin Mesoraco

St. Louis at Chicago Cubs

St. Louis					Chicago Cubs
Shelby Miller		Vegas Moneyline			Jake Arrieta		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CHC (-115)			RIGHT
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.270	0.771	0.342	18.8%	SP vs. Left	0.192	0.589	0.272	22.4%
SP vs. Right	0.223	0.623	0.286	21.3%	SP vs. Right	0.223	0.616	0.285	24.0%
Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R		Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Shelby Miller – Shelby will rejoin the Cardinals rotation today and the Cardinals are hoping he’ll get things back on track. He’s had a rather disappointing season, entering today’s game with a 7-8 record and 4.25 ERA. He’s been a bit shakey on the road throughout his short career, but he dominated this Cubs team last season and Chicago ranks just #28th in MLB in wOBA against right-handed pitching (.290 wOBA). Miller has really struggled with his command this season and therefore is too risky for my liking in cash games, but he has a nice matchup and is a nice upside player to target in GPP’s. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5500 FD, $NA DS, $10950 DD, $6000 DK, $41300 FF, $15000 SS, $10950 FTD

• Jake Arrieta – Arrieta has found a new home in the National League, as he’s posted a 9-4 record with a 2.70 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 8.56 K’s/9 in 23 starts since joining the Cubs last season. He has been nearly unhittable at Wrigley Field this season where he owns a 1.76 ERA, .95 WHIP and over a strikeout per inning. He’s kept the Red Birds bats quiet in two starts this season, allowing just one over 9.1 innings. Since the Cubs rarely put him in position for a “W”, he’s best used on the sites that don’t heavily weight the scoring of a win. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $7700 FD, $ DS, $17200 DD, $9600 DK, $122400 FF, $27400 SS, $17500 FTD

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Matt Adams – Arrieta has been very difficult on opposing hitters as they own just a .233 wOBA against him, but “Big City” has not been fooled. Adams owns a .408 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and is 4 for 5 against Arrieta.

Additional Plays: Jhonny Peralta, Matt Carpenter

Chicago Cubs

Anthony Rizzo – Rizzo brings a 10 game hitting streak into today’s game and is in a nice spot to extend it with Shelby Miller allowing lefties to post a .354 wOBA against him this season. Rizzo owns a .386 wOBA against right-handed pitching and owns a .980 OPS at Wrigley Field this season.

Additional Plays: Arismendy Alcantara, Luis Valbuena

Baltimore at Seattle

Baltimore					Seattle
Bud Norris		Vegas Moneyline			Chris Young		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		BAL (-105)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.293	0.822	0.365	15.6%	SP vs. Left	0.243	0.747	0.331	14.0%
SP vs. Right	0.239	0.641	0.296	21.9%	SP vs. Right	0.187	0.592	0.262	15.6%
Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R		Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Bud Norris – Norris appears to have settled into a nice groove lately, as he’s posted a 4-1 record with a 2.37 ERA over his last five starts. His advanced stats (4.34 xFIP, .265 BABIP) point to a regression to his current 3.78 ERA and his strikeout rate (6.45 K’s/9) has dipped to a career low. This Seattle team beat him up a bit in three starts last season and can load up from the left-side of the plate against him. He’s struggled on the road this season (4.42 ERA) so i’ll be avoiding him in cash games, but he should benefit from pitching in spacious Safeco Field, so he makes for an intriguing GPP option. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7000 FD, $NA DS, $12200 DD, $6800 DK, $88200 FF, $22200 SS, $12200 FTD

• Chris Young – Young continues to somewhat defy the odds even at 35 years old, he owns an 8-6 record to go along with a 3.22 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through 19 starts. He has been terrific at home this season, posting a 5-3 record and 2.45 ERA in ten starts at Safeco Field. However, proceed with extreme caution here as his BABIP currently sits at .218 which helps explain his 5.21 xFIP. With a regression almost certainly imminent, I’ll be avoiding Young today against a very capable Orioles lineup. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6300 FD, $ DS, $13700 DD, $6600 DK, $86600 FF, $17200 SS, $6350 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Chris Davis – With right-handed batters only owning a .260 wOBA against Young this season, it’s wise to attach him from the left-side of the plate where hitters own a .332 wOBA. Davis homered last night and remains the most dangerous left-handed bat in this Orioles lineup despite his down season.

Additional Plays: Nick Markakis

Seattle

Kyle Seager – Seager launched a pair of doubles in last nights game and is now hitting .357 over the last week. He owns a .386 wOBA against right-handed pitching and is 3 for 8 with a homerun off of Bud Norris in their brief history.

Additional Plays: Robinson Cano

Arizona at Philadelphia

Arizona					Philadelphia
Josh Collmenter		Vegas Moneyline			Cliff Lee		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		PHI (-147)			LEFT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.266	0.687	0.315	17.0%	SP vs. Left	0.217	0.517	0.242	21.6%
SP vs. Right	0.232	0.667	0.300	19.3%	SP vs. Right	0.260	0.698	0.304	24.7%
Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs L		Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Josh Collmenter – Collmenter has been outstanding in each of his last two starts, allowing just one run in seven innings of work in each game. His recent success has brought his ERA down to 3.64 on the season. Collmenter shut out this Phillies team over six innings earlier this season, but has also stuggled a bit on the road this year (4.70 ERA). The Phillies rank #29th in MLB in wOBA against right-handed pitching (.290 wOBA) so Collmenter is in play today. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7000 FD, $NA DS, $11100 DD, $6800 DK, $85900 FF, $17500 SS, $11100 FTD

• Cliff Lee – Lee was rudely welcomed back from the DL earlier this week, getting tagged for six earned runs on twelve hits in just 5.2 innings of work against San Francisco. Despite a lineup that contains several lefty killers, the Diamondbacks rank in the bottom third of the league in wOBA versus left-handed pitching this season, and Lee mowed them down easily in their only meeting last season. The fear that he still has some “rust” to pitch through is enough for me to look elsewhere in cash games (as there are a lot of other top tier options today) but he’s still very capable of a monster game which keeps him safely in play as a GPP target. Rating = 6

Salaries: $9000 FD, $ DS, $16300 DD, $9200 DK, $87400 FF, $26200 SS, $16600 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Paul Goldschmidt – While I usually don’t like picking on Cliff Lee, he still appears to be shaking off some rust and Goldschmidt is always in play versus left-handed pitching (.480 wOBA). He’s just 2 for 10 off of Lee in his career, but both of those hits left the yard.

Additional Plays: Aaron Hill, Mark Trumbo

Philadelphia

Chase Utley – Utley brings a .303 batting average against right-handed pitching into today’s battle with Josh Collmenter who he’s 3 for 7 with a double and two walks against in the past. He’s now reached base 11 times in the last five games.

Additional Plays: Jimmy Rollins, Marlon Byrd

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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