MLB Grind Down: Thursday, July 10th Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-07-10 16:48:55

NY Yankees at Cleveland

NY Yankees					Cleveland
David Phelps		Vegas Moneyline			T.J. House		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CLE (-120)			LEFT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.235	0.702	0.320	22.4%	SP vs. Left	0.290	0.737	0.321	15.9%
SP vs. Right	0.284	0.762	0.347	17.8%	SP vs. Right	0.317	0.865	0.390	13.5%
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs L		Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• David Phelps – Phelps takes the mound tonight for the Yankees and is hoping to have more success than the other Yankee starters have had against the Indians. Phelps owns a solid K/9 of 7.7, but sports a mediocre 4.01 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. The Indians are ranked 7th in wOBA against RH pitching. He may see some nice run support, but I think there are better options. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5800 FD, $11791 DS, $10000 DD, $5700 DK, $77100 FF, $13400 SS, $10000 FTD

• T.J. House – House has been a serviceable starter for the Indians in his rookie season. He has posted a 4.24 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP. House has a fairly low K-rate and he’s given up a .390 wOBA to RH hitters this season. I’m just not seeing enough here to warrant taking him tonight. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5500 FD, $8835 DS, $8150 DD, $5900 DK, $56300 FF, $ SS, $8150 FTD

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Mark Texieira – While most of his power comes against RH pitching, I think Big Teix takes advantage of the splits tonight as House has given up a .390 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate. He’s coming off of a monster game last night and should head into tonight’s game with a ton of confidence at the plate.

Additional Plays: Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury

Cleveland

Carlos Santana – I like Santana here because his price is depressed across the industry. He’s played much better over the last few weeks of play and 9 of his 13 HR’s have come off of RH pitching. Phelps should not scare you off of the Indians’ bats in the slightest.

Additional Plays: Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley

Atlanta at NY Mets

Atlanta					NY Mets
Aaron Harang		Vegas Moneyline			Bartolo Colon		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		NYM (-110)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.280	0.801	0.355	16.1%	SP vs. Left	0.257	0.684	0.300	15.4%
SP vs. Right	0.259	0.716	0.318	21.5%	SP vs. Right	0.268	0.662	0.294	16.7%
Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R		Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Aaron Harang – The Harangatang will be on the mound tonight for the Braves against the Mets who have been very good offensively in this series. Harang has given up 15 earned runs over his last 4 starts and appears to be trending in the wrong direction. The matchup may look good on paper, but I think the Mets’ offense keeps things rolling tonight. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6800 FD, $14546 DS, $14450 DD, $6900 DK, $80800 FF, $18800 SS, $12900 FTD

• Bartolo Colon – Colon has been dominant at Citi Field this season. In 7 starts at home, he’s posted a 2.72 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP and a K/9 of 8.3. He couldn’t ask for much better of a matchup either as the Braves are ranked 27th in wOBA against RH pitching with a 22% strikeout rate. For the first time all season, I’m buying some shares of Fatolo. Rating = 7

Salaries: $7500 FD, $12868 DS, $14950 DD, $7300 DK, $89400 FF, $21000 SS, $14950 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman – Freeman is the one Braves’ bat that I will have some exposure to tonight. He has great power against RH pitching and could take advantage of a mis-placed Colon fastball. He’s hit Colon well in the past, although he’s only faced him 6 times.

Additional Plays: None

NY Mets

Lucas Duda – Since the start of 2013, Harang has given up a .355 wOBA to LH hitters. Duda is finally starting to produce for the Mets and he’s a very cheap option at 1B. The Mets’ offense should keep things rolling tonight.

Additional Plays: Daniel Murphy, Curtis Granderson

Pittsburgh at St. Louis

Pittsburgh					St. Louis
Edinson Volquez		Vegas Moneyline			Shelby Miller		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		STL (-120)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.279	0.804	0.357	17.1%	SP vs. Left	0.270	0.767	0.341	19.1%
SP vs. Right	0.256	0.710	0.322	17.7%	SP vs. Right	0.220	0.619	0.284	21.8%
Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs R		Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Edinson Volquez – Volquez has a decent matchup against the Cardinals, but is not a recommended fantasy option outside of GPP’s. On the season he owns a 3.88 ERA and he’s coming off of back to back quality starts. The price is affordable, but I prefer using him when he’s pitching at home. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6700 FD, $14549 DS, $13750 DD, $7000 DK, $83400 FF, $19500 SS, $12850 FTD

• Shelby Miller – Miller has been awful in his last 4 starts. He’s given up a combined 16 earned runs while only striking out 12 batters. The good news is that his recent performance has really impacted his price. He’s the cheapest that I can ever remember him being (under $9k on DS). Miller is very good against RH hitters which does help his cause tonight against the Pirates. He’s in play on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5800 FD, $8820 DS, $11400 DD, $6500 DK, $48500 FF, $16800 SS, $11400 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Neil Walker – Walker makes a terrific value play at 2B tonight. He owns a .357 wOBA against RH pitching and draws a favorable matchup against Miller who has been extremely vulnerable to batters from the left side of the plate.

Additional Plays: Pedro Alvarez

St. Louis

Matt Adams – Another matchup against an average RH pitcher. Adams owns a .416 wOBA against righties this season and continues to remain under-priced on all sites across the board. I’ll continue to target him until his price goes up.

Additional Plays: Matt Carpenter

LA Angels at Texas

LA Angels					Texas
Hector Santiago		Vegas Moneyline			Colby Lewis		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		LAA (-125)			RIGHT		10.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.250	0.673	0.320	20.6%	SP vs. Left	0.378	0.975	0.428	16.7%
SP vs. Right	0.242	0.721	0.331	21.3%	SP vs. Right	0.284	0.769	0.344	21.8%
Batter Splits	LAA BvP		LAA vs R		Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Hector Santiago – This isn’t Coors Field, but Globe Life Park is one of the better hitter’s parks in baseball. Santiago has not pitched well this season and the Rangers are ranked 6th in wOBA against LH pitching. Avoid Santiago at all costs. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5500 FD, $9633 DS, $9950 DD, $6400 DK, $NA FF, $13000 SS, $9950 FTD

• Colby Lewis – I’ve been avoiding Lewis all season long and that trend will continue tonight against the very good Angels’ offense. The total for this game is set at 10.0 runs for a reason. Avoid both pitchers in this one. Rating = 2

Salaries: $7100 FD, $12525 DS, $10200 DD, $5800 DK, $72800 FF, $16000 SS, $10200 FTD

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Kole Calhoun – The Angels are my top team to stack tonight. Lewis is basically a gas can on the mound and the Angels are one of the better AL teams against RH pitching. Calhoun has great power against RH pitching and should be targeted in all leagues.

Additional Plays: Albert Pujols, Mike Trout, Josh Hamilton, Howie Kendrick

Texas

Alex Rios – Rios continues to be my go-to guy when he is facing a lefty. He’s extremely cheap across the industry and owns a .445 wOBA against southpaws. Plus he gives you a nice combination of speed (14 SB’s) and power (4 HR’s).

Additional Plays: Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus, Shin-Soo Choo

Detroit at Kansas City

Detroit					Kansas City
Drew Smyly		Vegas Moneyline			Jeremy Guthrie		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		KCR (-110)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.164	0.425	0.191	28.6%	SP vs. Left	0.313	0.864	0.380	12.7%
SP vs. Right	0.289	0.828	0.363	20.0%	SP vs. Right	0.231	0.608	0.279	13.8%
Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R		Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KCR vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Drew Smyly – Smyly may be a popular play tonight, but I’m not sure that I’ll be drinking the Kool-Aid. He’s given up 9 earned runs in his last two starts and he’s facing a Royals’ offense that strikes out fewer times than any team in baseball. I wouldn’t blame you for targeting him tonight, but I think there are better options. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6300 FD, $11462 DS, $10900 DD, $6300 DK, $62700 FF, $15400 SS, $10900 FTD

• Jeremy Guthrie – After a few dominant starts in a row, Guthrie came crashing back down to Earth by giving up 6 earned runs in his last outing against the Indians. Tonight he faces a Tigers’ offense that is ranked 3rd in all of baseball against RH pitching. There’s more downside than upside here. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5900 FD, $10693 DS, $11150 DD, $7100 DK, $81000 FF, $19200 SS, $11150 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Don Kelly – I’d love to target a few Tigers’ bats tonight, but they have very few LH hitters in their lineup. My guess is that they will stick Kelly in the lineup as Guthrie has given up a .380 wOBA to LH hitters over the last 2 seasons.

Additional Plays: Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez, Alex Avila

Kansas City

Lorenzo Cain – Cain has hit LH pitching well this season. He has a .384 wOBA against southpaws and has been stealing bases in bunches of late. While it’s much tougher to steal against a lefty, I wouldn’t put it past Cain to be aggressive on the base pads again tonight.

Additional Plays: Salvador Perez, Omar Infante

MLB Grind Down Page 2 – Page 3