MLB Heat Check: August 13th, 2013

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-08-14 00:56:00

Whether you’re looking for a guy that’s due or you put your faith in players hitting the ball well, recent performance is a crucial factor in daily fantasy baseball. But it’s not just about finding which players are putting up the biggest numbers, because in DFS it comes down to value. In this article I’ll look at which players are over/under performing their season averages by the greatest margin in recent days.

hot hittahs

For the purpose of this article, we’ll define hot and cold streaks by players recent averages (last SEVEN days) vs. their season averages. We’re far enough into the season that, for the most part, we have a decent feel for where players lie. The four key stats looked at in terms of differentials will be:

1) Batting Average
2) Slugging Percentage
3) OPS (On Base + Slugging)
4) Fantasy Points Per Game (based on FD scoring)

Also, to qualify, hitters must have at least 50 plate appearances on the season and 10 plate appearances over the past seven days.

Shown below are the hitters with the largest fantasy point per game differentials between their last 7 days performance and their season averages, along with the percentage increase or decrease for each stat.

HOTTEST HITTERS

Josh Reddick

Josh Reddick	HOTTEST HITTER #1
	Season		Last 7 Days		Difference		Percent Change
	AVG	0.214	AVG	0.286	AVG	0.072	AVG	33.6%
	SLG	0.383	SLG	1.000	SLG	0.617	SLG	161.3%
	OPS	0.680	OPS	1.400	OPS	0.720	OPS	105.9%
	FPPG	2.24	FPPG	6.04	FPPG	3.80	FPPG	169.2%

Easiest way to make this list? Have a .214 season average then hit 5 home runs in the span of 2 days. That’s just the Josh Reddick way.
I think this is a clear “unsustainable” streak. He’s probably better than his numbers indicate this year, but his price went through the roof after this weekend’s dong-fest.

Brian Dozier

Brian Dozier	HOTTEST HITTER #2
	Season		Last 7 Days		Difference		Percent Change
	AVG	0.245	AVG	0.379	AVG	0.134	AVG	54.7%
	SLG	0.428	SLG	0.897	SLG	0.468	SLG	109.4%
	OPS	0.728	OPS	1.308	OPS	0.580	OPS	79.7%
	FPPG	2.37	FPPG	5.64	FPPG	3.27	FPPG	137.8%

Dozier is a guy whose price is finally sitting at a point where he should probably be avoided. He’s been really good against lefties though and is definitely worth paying up for in those situations.
His .310 BA against LHP and .271 average at home make him a guy to target in that specific situation and fade in others.

Aaron Hill

Aaron Hill	HOTTEST HITTER #3
	Season		Last 7 Days		Difference		Percent Change
	AVG	0.304	AVG	0.478	AVG	0.174	AVG	57.2%
	SLG	0.530	SLG	1.000	SLG	0.470	SLG	88.5%
	OPS	0.879	OPS	1.520	OPS	0.641	OPS	72.9%
	FPPG	2.81	FPPG	6.00	FPPG	3.19	FPPG	113.8%

He’s not just hot over the last week, he’s hitting .417 in August and his daily fantasy price has risen to boot. He’s now the most expensive 2B on the majority of sites.
I think we’re seeing the norm rather than an unsustainable trend for Hill. Obviously he won’t continue hitting at this pace but he was injury hampered in the early part of the season but, when healthy, is one of the best hitting second basemen in baseball.
He has a .950 OPS at home and a 1.100 OPS against lefties. That’s a nice place to spend up on Hill. But he’s also boasting an OPS over .800 on the road and against righties so he’s never a bad option.

Jayson Werth

Jayson Werth	HOTTEST HITTER #4
	Season		Last 7 Days		Difference		Percent Change
	AVG	0.328	AVG	0.529	AVG	0.201	AVG	61.3%
	SLG	0.530	SLG	0.882	SLG	0.353	SLG	66.5%
	OPS	0.922	OPS	1.519	OPS	0.597	OPS	64.8%
	FPPG	3.03	FPPG	6.20	FPPG	3.17	FPPG	104.9%

Another Werth streak, yawn.
All I’ve really learned about this guy is that if he’s hot enough to make it into this article, you’re already too late.
The .571 BA in August is impressive I suppose. Fire away with Werth against lefties as well. He has 8 HR in 71 AB’s against as opposed to 9 HR’s off righties in over 250 AB’s.

Leonys Martin

Leonys Martin	HOTTEST HITTER #5
	Season		Last 7 Days		Difference		Percent Change
	AVG	0.278	AVG	0.333	AVG	0.055	AVG	19.8%
	SLG	0.407	SLG	0.417	SLG	0.010	SLG	2.4%
	OPS	0.716	OPS	0.761	OPS	0.045	OPS	6.3%
	FPPG	2.09	FPPG	5.17	FPPG	3.07	FPPG	146.9%

He was the flavor of the week last week, and his %owned went way up across the board. Unfortunately, his price followed suit.
As I mentioned last time I wrote this article and he was mid-hot streak, the 25 year old loves playing at home and he can’t hit lefties.

HONORABLE MENTION – HOTTEST

HOT	PLAYER	Seas FPPG	L7 FPPG	FPPG-Diff
6	Scooter Gennett	1.46	4.17	2.71
7	Nick Punto	1.30	4.00	2.70
8	Miguel Cabrera	4.53	7.18	2.65
9	Alex Gordon	2.60	5.21	2.61
10	Adrian Beltre	2.94	5.54	2.60
11	Adam Jones	3.11	5.63	2.51
12	Chris Colabello	1.43	3.88	2.45
13	Elvis Andrus	2.25	4.67	2.42
14	Ike Davis	1.65	4.00	2.35
15	Adam Eaton	1.72	3.95	2.23
16	J.J. Hardy	2.15	4.33	2.18
17	Brandon Belt	2.27	4.42	2.15
18	Austin Jackson	2.78	4.93	2.15
19	Mark Ellis	1.76	3.90	2.14
20	Jason Castro	2.38	4.50	2.12
21	Matt Holliday	3.02	5.13	2.11
22	Billy Butler	2.27	4.29	2.01
23	Welington Castillo	1.62	3.61	1.99
24	Will Venable	1.94	3.92	1.98
25	Gordon Beckham	2.02	3.96	1.94

COLDEST HITTERS

Raul Ibanez

Raul Ibanez	COLDEST HITTER #1
	Season		Last 7 Days		Difference		Percent Change
	AVG	0.246	AVG	0.091	AVG	-0.155	AVG	-63.0%
	SLG	0.504	SLG	0.091	SLG	-0.413	SLG	-82.0%
	OPS	0.801	OPS	0.182	OPS	-0.619	OPS	-77.3%
	FPPG	2.57	FPPG	-0.17	FPPG	-2.74	FPPG	-106.5%

This had to be the most obvious downfall ever right? I don’t know what kind of vitamins he took in the first half but I need some STAT.
In all seriousness, the dong or bust Ibanez was bound for a cold streak. The whole Mariners offense seems to go as he goes and right now, they’re all pretty cold.

Troy Tulowitzki

Troy Tulowitzki	COLDEST HITTER #2
	Season		Last 7 Days		Difference		Percent Change
	AVG	0.303	AVG	0.050	AVG	-0.253	AVG	-83.5%
	SLG	0.555	SLG	0.050	SLG	-0.505	SLG	-91.0%
	OPS	0.920	OPS	0.290	OPS	-0.630	OPS	-68.5%
	FPPG	3.07	FPPG	0.46	FPPG	-2.60	FPPG	-84.9%

Tulo has been battling some injuries (what else is new) so I’ll cut him a break though.
I can’t help but notice his struggles are coming off of a lengthy road trip, I think a few Coors will do him well.

Buster Posey

Buster Posey	COLDEST HITTER #3
	Season		Last 7 Days		Difference		Percent Change
	AVG	0.300	AVG	0.067	AVG	-0.233	AVG	-77.7%
	SLG	0.489	SLG	0.067	SLG	-0.422	SLG	-86.4%
	OPS	0.845	OPS	0.267	OPS	-0.578	OPS	-68.4%
	FPPG	2.44	FPPG	0.30	FPPG	-2.14	FPPG	-87.7%

I give up on the Giants. Guess what? They suck at hitting. Next.

Mark Trumbo

Mark Trumbo	COLDEST HITTER #4
	Season		Last 7 Days		Difference		Percent Change
	AVG	0.235	AVG	0.040	AVG	-0.195	AVG	-83.0%
	SLG	0.451	SLG	0.040	SLG	-0.411	SLG	-91.1%
	OPS	0.749	OPS	0.117	OPS	-0.632	OPS	-84.4%
	FPPG	2.57	FPPG	0.50	FPPG	-2.07	FPPG	-80.6%

Almost as nauseating as seeing another Giants player on the coldest list is seeing an Angels guy.
Trumbo has and always will be a high-risk, high-reward play. He could dong (like he already has done tonight) or K 17 times. Roll the dice at your own risk.

Jason Kipnis

Jason Kipnis	COLDEST HITTER #5
	Season		Last 7 Days		Difference		Percent Change
	AVG	0.290	AVG	0.222	AVG	-0.068	AVG	-23.4%
	SLG	0.482	SLG	0.296	SLG	-0.185	SLG	-38.5%
	OPS	0.844	OPS	0.596	OPS	-0.248	OPS	-29.4%
	FPPG	3.25	FPPG	1.25	FPPG	-2.00	FPPG	-61.5%

Kipnis was once a main stay of the “hottest” section of this article but recent struggles have pushed him all the way to the opposite end of the spectrum.
His .222 batting average isn’t all that disappointing but the OPS under .600 is definitely concerning. He’s just not picking up extra bases which, when he was hot, was something he did almost nightly.

HONORABLE MENTIONS – COLDEST

COLD	PLAYER	Seas FPPG	L7 FPPG	FPPG-Diff
6	Matt Dominguez	1.64	-0.33	-1.97
7	Nick Hundley	1.47	-0.50	-1.97
8	Alex Avila	1.78	-0.17	-1.95
9	Pedro Florimon	1.56	-0.30	-1.86
10	Kyle Seager	2.65	0.80	-1.85
11	Pablo Sandoval	1.90	0.08	-1.82
12	Carlos Santana	2.37	0.75	-1.62
13	Jonathan Lucroy	2.30	0.71	-1.59
14	Edwin Encarnacion	3.40	1.83	-1.56
15	Eric Young	1.96	0.43	-1.53
16	Michael Morse	2.03	0.50	-1.53
17	Daniel Murphy	2.36	0.89	-1.46
18	Chase Headley	2.03	0.58	-1.45
19	Didi Gregorius	1.70	0.25	-1.45
20	Dan Uggla	2.21	0.79	-1.41
21	Kendrys Morales	2.46	1.05	-1.41
22	Anthony Rizzo	2.52	1.14	-1.38
23	Chris Heisey	1.23	-0.13	-1.36
24	Chris Stewart	1.04	-0.31	-1.35
25	Geovany Soto	1.79	0.44	-1.35

MLB Heat Check: August 13th, 2013

HOTTEST HITTERS

HONORABLE MENTION – HOTTEST

COLDEST HITTERS

HONORABLE MENTIONS – COLDEST

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