MLB Odds, Picks, & Predictions for Today — Thursday, August 12th
MLB betting analyst Sloan Piva peruses baseball odds every day to deliver his best bets. Keep reading to find his picks and predictions for the Brewers at Cubs, White Sox vs. Yankees (Field of Dreams Game), and Padres at Diamondbacks on Thursday, August 12th.
I rarely make excuses, or put asterisks next to anything. But I get pretty miffed when I select a team for a Bet of the Day, and they promptly start someone not originally listed as their probable starter. Naturally, I went berserk when I came home from work last night to see that Reynaldo Lopez opened a bullpen game for the White Sox instead of initially-projected starter (and Cy Young candidate) Lance Lynn. Tony La Russa and the Sox wanted Lynn to play the Field of Dreams Game in Iowa Thursday, because sentimental yadda yadda yadda.
That’s a HUGE difference in pitchers, guys. And it’s one of the reasons bettors often bet pitchers instead of teams. Who wants to put money down on a stud, only to find out a stiff has taken his place!? As such, I am not counting the White Sox’s 1-0 loss toward my season-long Bets of the Day record. Nope nope nope. I would never advise betting on Reynaldo Lopez in a bullpen game—my advice was predicated on Lynn starting, that’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
So, I went 1-0 Wednesday, thanks to the Giants once again laying the hammer down on the poor Diamondbacks. That brings our record to 50-37, 50-38 if you’re into asterisks. I’m from New England—once my mind is made up on something, the notion can’t be budged.
With all that said, let’s move on to our favorite Bets of the Thursday slate, and let’s keep our fingers crossed we don’t see any more last-minute pitcher switcheroos.
MLB Odds, Picks, & Predictions for Today
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
Pitching Matchup: Brandon Woodruff vs. Kyle Hendricks
Pick: Brewers -225
It’s slim pickings for this game on BetMGM and PointsBet, but Woodruff and the Brewers anywhere under -250 seems fine to me. A legitimate NL Cy Young candidate, the burly Milwaukee ace has been a sight to behold.
Woodruff enters today’s contest with a 2.23 ERA, 0.888 WHIP, and 160 strikeouts in 137.1 innings. He has allowed two runs or fewer in 17 of his 22 starts, and allowed three or fewer runs in all but two games. Opponents are collectively slashing .182/.241/.279 against him, while averaging an 84.9 mph average exit velocity. Batters make hard contact on Woodruff just 31.5 percent of the time his pitches are put into play.
Now Woodruff gets his fifth chance of 2021 to see the Cubs, and this time the division rivals are without three of their biggest offensive names from the past half-decade. No Rizzo, Bryant, or Baez means easier sledding for the 28-year old Cy Young contender, who has already gone 2-0 with an 0.72 ERA, 0.640 WHIP, and 10.9 K/9 against Chicago this season.
Kyle Hendricks has been very good for the Cubbies, with an MLB-leading 13 wins to go with a serviceable 3.68 ERA. But his WHIP is 1.292, his strikeout and whiff rates are way down, and he’s yield slash rates of .272/.316/.458. His BAbip is .299, tied for 14th-highest among the 56 starters who have pitched 110 innings.
This has all been one long-winded and nerdy way of saying I like Woodruff a lot, and the Brewers will get him his eighth win today. He and Hendricks deserve to swap win-loss records, honestly. Woodruff looks like prime Yu Darvish in 2013, while Hendricks looks like an older version of Jon Lester overachieving with wins. The simultaneous positive/negative record regression starts now for these two.
White Sox vs. Yankees (Field of Dreams Game, Iowa)
Pitching Matchup: Lance Lynn vs. Andrew Heaney
Pick: White Sox -175
Let’s try our White Sox one more time, because it’s apparently a daily occurrence for us to pick the South Siders. I wanted to bet Lynn and the Sox Wednesday, and I apparently had to wait another 24 hours for the much-anticipated Field of Dreams Game in Dyersville, Iowa.
As I mentioned Wednesday, Lynn has been ridiculously good in 2021. Just look at the Cy Young candidate’s numbers for the AL Central-leading Sox: 10-3, MLB-leading 2.07 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, AL-best 6.7 hits per nine innings, .200 batting average against. Yeah, he’s filthy, and Andrew Heaney — with his 7-8 record and 5.45 ERA—can’t hold Lynn’s jock strap right now.
The Yankees also can’t hold a candle to Chicago’s offensive explosiveness right now. Eloy Jimenez has been crushing the ball since he returned from IL, Jose Abreu looks back to prime form, and Tim Anderson once again looks like a top-10 contact hitter.
As I have said so many times in the past few weeks, Chi ‘til I die. I might legitimately be changing Sox allegiances—sorry in advance to all my Boston friends, and say hello to ya’ motha fa’ me .
San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitching Matchup: Yu Darvish vs. Taylor Widener
Pick: Padres -1.5 (-130)
Run-line favorites have been brutal lately, but this one’s a can’t-miss. The D-backs have been awful lately—not even Ketel Marte can get anything going for them. Arizona just got smacked around by San Fran worse than Charlie Murphy at a Rick James party, and now Torey Lovullo’s club must face Yu Darvish and the Padres. SLAP!
Darvish may not be a top Cy Young contender like previous years, but he’s still enjoying a strong All-Star season and he’s light-years ahead of Taylor Widener. Darvish has zero wins in three starts against Arizona this season, despite a 3.57 ERA and 1.152 WHIP in those contests. Meanwhile, three of Widener’s past four games have resulted in the 26-year old surrendering five earned runs.
And even without MVP candidate Fernando Tatis, Jr., this Padres lineup can be lethal. Stud third baseman Manny Machado has been raking, outfielder Wil Myers seems poised for a second-half turnaround, and All-Star second baseman Adam Frazier has injected a lot of energy into the top of San Diego’s order since being acquired from the Pirates.
Be smart, and don’t talk yourself out of this one. Bet Slam Diego over the F-backs.
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